Economic Reports 10/25/07
From MSN's Jon Markman:
"If you just arrived from a visit to the International Space Station, you'd be excused for thinking that the U.S. economy is about to plunge off a cliff...
with widespread unemployment, massive piles of unsold inventory, corporate profit growth in full-speed reverse and hundreds of bank closures."
Summary: Initial claims improve on the surface, continuing employment still pernicious as the bleed continues from housing into multiple sectors.
The emasculation continues as durable orders for automotive, ex defense and other durable goods all declining sequentially and YTD.
New home sales shows a continuance of the housing debacle. Happy "daze" news reported a monthly sales increase.
Reality shows the increase on a downward revision to last months already horrid numbers. YOY, YTD sales declining & monthly supply increasing.
Initial Claims 10/20 -8K at 331K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 2K to 339K. 4 week MA +7.75K to 324.75K. Continuing unemployment +7K at 2.53M; 4 week MA -3.75K at 2.526M.
Durable Orders Sep -1.7% vs prior -5.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down 0.4% from -4.9%. Shipments -2% vs prior -1.9%; Unfilled orders +1.1% vs prior +1.1%; Inventories +0.4% vs prior +0.1%.
Transportation orders -6.3%; new orders ex transport +0.3%; shipments -0.9%. Defense orders +38.7%; ex defense +0.7%; shipments -1.9%.
Capital goods orders -1.3%; shipments -0.3%. Non defense capital goods orders +4.4%, shipments +0.2%.
Ex aircraft orders +0.4%, shipments +1%; YTD orders -1.9%; shipments -0.9%
Transportation equipment orders -6.3%; shipments -5%. Motor Vehicles orders -2.9%; shipments -4.5%; YTD orders -4.6%; shipments -3.6%.
All other durable goods YTD: orders -3.8%; shipments -4.3%
New Home Sales Sep +4.8% at 770K vs prior 735K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 60K from 795K to realize a gain this month. YOY -23.3%; YTD -23.4%.
Months supply at current sales rate: -7.8%; YOY +22.1%; YTD +24.2%
Sales: NE -6.6%; YOY -8.1%; YTD +2.4%. MW -19.5%; YOY -28.3%; YTD -24.4%. S +0.5%; YOY -28.9%; YTD -23.7%. W +37.7%; YOY -12.2%; YTD -28.4%.
"If you just arrived from a visit to the International Space Station, you'd be excused for thinking that the U.S. economy is about to plunge off a cliff...
with widespread unemployment, massive piles of unsold inventory, corporate profit growth in full-speed reverse and hundreds of bank closures."
Summary: Initial claims improve on the surface, continuing employment still pernicious as the bleed continues from housing into multiple sectors.
The emasculation continues as durable orders for automotive, ex defense and other durable goods all declining sequentially and YTD.
New home sales shows a continuance of the housing debacle. Happy "daze" news reported a monthly sales increase.
Reality shows the increase on a downward revision to last months already horrid numbers. YOY, YTD sales declining & monthly supply increasing.
Initial Claims 10/20 -8K at 331K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 2K to 339K. 4 week MA +7.75K to 324.75K. Continuing unemployment +7K at 2.53M; 4 week MA -3.75K at 2.526M.
Durable Orders Sep -1.7% vs prior -5.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down 0.4% from -4.9%. Shipments -2% vs prior -1.9%; Unfilled orders +1.1% vs prior +1.1%; Inventories +0.4% vs prior +0.1%.
Transportation orders -6.3%; new orders ex transport +0.3%; shipments -0.9%. Defense orders +38.7%; ex defense +0.7%; shipments -1.9%.
Capital goods orders -1.3%; shipments -0.3%. Non defense capital goods orders +4.4%, shipments +0.2%.
Ex aircraft orders +0.4%, shipments +1%; YTD orders -1.9%; shipments -0.9%
Transportation equipment orders -6.3%; shipments -5%. Motor Vehicles orders -2.9%; shipments -4.5%; YTD orders -4.6%; shipments -3.6%.
All other durable goods YTD: orders -3.8%; shipments -4.3%
New Home Sales Sep +4.8% at 770K vs prior 735K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 60K from 795K to realize a gain this month. YOY -23.3%; YTD -23.4%.
Months supply at current sales rate: -7.8%; YOY +22.1%; YTD +24.2%
Sales: NE -6.6%; YOY -8.1%; YTD +2.4%. MW -19.5%; YOY -28.3%; YTD -24.4%. S +0.5%; YOY -28.9%; YTD -23.7%. W +37.7%; YOY -12.2%; YTD -28.4%.
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