Economic Reports 10/31/07
Summary: Scary news, GDP headline "happy daze" increase and lowered chain deflator.
Under the sheets... rising prices, inventory build and residential investments 7th straight quarterly decline.
Chicago PMI contracting with rising input prices & inventories, lower employment, orders & backlogs, and less capex.
The housing debacle continues with Construction Spending headline rising, under the sheets, new residential single family construction declining 26% YOY.
GDP-Adv. Q3 +3.9% vs Q2 +3.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Good news? Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 +0.7 vs +2.6%. NOT!
Rising prices, Q3 PCE +3% vs Q2 +1.4%; Durable goods +4.4% vs 1.7%; Non durable +2.7% vs -0.5%; Services +2.9% vs +2.3%.
Inventory build on lower sales, Q1 +$0.1 Billion; Q2 +$5.8 Billion; Q3 +$15.7 Billion. As the housing debacle continues...
Real residential fixed investment negative for the 7th straight quarter, Q3 -20.1% vs Q2 -11.8%
Chicago PMI Oct 49.7 vs prior 54.2 Full Report
Inside the number: Chicago Business Barometer fell past neutral in October, beginning the 4th Quarter with a slight contraction:
PRODUCTION (46.9 vs 58.3) NEW ORDERS (53.9 vs 56.2) and ORDER BACKLOGS (39.9 vs 50.5) dropped while INVENTORIES (49.6 vs 38.2) and EMPLOYMENT (49.5 vs 52) stalled.
PRICES PAID (74.7 vs 59) increased at a faster rate. BUYING POLICY: Lead time for CAPITAL EQUIPMENT (120.6 vs 121.8) failed to expand for the third month.
Construction Spending Sep +0.3% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: YOY -0.8%; Total residential construction -1.4%; YOY -16.4%.
Total Private Construction -0.2%; YOY -5.4%; Private residential construction -1.4%; YOY -16.8%.
Private New Single Family Construction -3.5%; YOY -26.1%
Under the sheets... rising prices, inventory build and residential investments 7th straight quarterly decline.
Chicago PMI contracting with rising input prices & inventories, lower employment, orders & backlogs, and less capex.
The housing debacle continues with Construction Spending headline rising, under the sheets, new residential single family construction declining 26% YOY.
GDP-Adv. Q3 +3.9% vs Q2 +3.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Good news? Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 +0.7 vs +2.6%. NOT!
Rising prices, Q3 PCE +3% vs Q2 +1.4%; Durable goods +4.4% vs 1.7%; Non durable +2.7% vs -0.5%; Services +2.9% vs +2.3%.
Inventory build on lower sales, Q1 +$0.1 Billion; Q2 +$5.8 Billion; Q3 +$15.7 Billion. As the housing debacle continues...
Real residential fixed investment negative for the 7th straight quarter, Q3 -20.1% vs Q2 -11.8%
Chicago PMI Oct 49.7 vs prior 54.2 Full Report
Inside the number: Chicago Business Barometer fell past neutral in October, beginning the 4th Quarter with a slight contraction:
PRODUCTION (46.9 vs 58.3) NEW ORDERS (53.9 vs 56.2) and ORDER BACKLOGS (39.9 vs 50.5) dropped while INVENTORIES (49.6 vs 38.2) and EMPLOYMENT (49.5 vs 52) stalled.
PRICES PAID (74.7 vs 59) increased at a faster rate. BUYING POLICY: Lead time for CAPITAL EQUIPMENT (120.6 vs 121.8) failed to expand for the third month.
Construction Spending Sep +0.3% vs prior +0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: YOY -0.8%; Total residential construction -1.4%; YOY -16.4%.
Total Private Construction -0.2%; YOY -5.4%; Private residential construction -1.4%; YOY -16.8%.
Private New Single Family Construction -3.5%; YOY -26.1%
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