Economic Reports 11/01/07
Summary: Real income and spending down, stagflation forcing consumers to cut back, non farm proprietors losing money.
Initial claims reveals near & long term unemployment worsening, the bleed from housing into other sectors continues unabated.
ISM declining as the impact of the slow down in the financial, housing and transportation segments has spilled over into the emasculated remains of manufacturing.
There's a pig stuck in the python: production & backlogs down, inventory liquidation slowing, customer inventories & input prices rising too high.
Personal Income Sep +0.4% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Real income decelerating in Chained 2000 dollars +0.2% vs prior +0.5%.
Personal Spending Sep +0.3% vs prior +0.5%; grinding to a halt in Chained 2000 dollars +0.1% vs prior +0.6%.
Non durable goods prices forced consumers to cut back on other spending.
Purchases of durable goods +0.4% vs +2.9%; non durable goods +0.3% vs -0.1%; services -0.1% vs +0.5%.
Small business hurting, proprietors income -$7.1 Billion vs prior -$0.4 Billion.
Non farm proprietors income -$9.6 Billion vs prior -$2.7 Billion. Core PCE Inflation Sep +0.2% vs prior +0.1%, so what.
Initial Claims 10/27 -6K to 327K vs prior 333K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +1.75K to 327K. Continuing unemployment +65K to 2.588M; 4 week MA +13K to 2.537M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +2,590 construction, manufacturing
CA +7,027 construction, agriculture, forestry, fishing
ISM Index Oct 50.9 vs prior 52.0 Full Report
Inside the number: Under 50 means contracting.
New orders slowing 52.5 vs 53.4; Production contracting 49.6 vs 54.6; Inventories contracting at a slower rate 47.2 vs 41.6.
Backlog's decreasing 46 vs 51. Customer inventories growing too high 54 vs 50. Prices increasing 63 vs 59.
Comments:
We are experiencing a slight slow down of current orders, but see this as temporary. (Plastics & Rubber Products)
Business is softer than forecasted, market recovery appears to be delayed. (Transportation Equipment)
Heavy truck industry is not seeing signs of a recovery yet. (Fabricated Metal Products)
Business conditions are still sluggish. International orders are keeping us busy! (Machinery)
Initial claims reveals near & long term unemployment worsening, the bleed from housing into other sectors continues unabated.
ISM declining as the impact of the slow down in the financial, housing and transportation segments has spilled over into the emasculated remains of manufacturing.
There's a pig stuck in the python: production & backlogs down, inventory liquidation slowing, customer inventories & input prices rising too high.
Personal Income Sep +0.4% vs prior +0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: Real income decelerating in Chained 2000 dollars +0.2% vs prior +0.5%.
Personal Spending Sep +0.3% vs prior +0.5%; grinding to a halt in Chained 2000 dollars +0.1% vs prior +0.6%.
Non durable goods prices forced consumers to cut back on other spending.
Purchases of durable goods +0.4% vs +2.9%; non durable goods +0.3% vs -0.1%; services -0.1% vs +0.5%.
Small business hurting, proprietors income -$7.1 Billion vs prior -$0.4 Billion.
Non farm proprietors income -$9.6 Billion vs prior -$2.7 Billion. Core PCE Inflation Sep +0.2% vs prior +0.1%, so what.
Initial Claims 10/27 -6K to 327K vs prior 333K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised up 2K. 4 week MA +1.75K to 327K. Continuing unemployment +65K to 2.588M; 4 week MA +13K to 2.537M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +2,590 construction, manufacturing
CA +7,027 construction, agriculture, forestry, fishing
ISM Index Oct 50.9 vs prior 52.0 Full Report
Inside the number: Under 50 means contracting.
New orders slowing 52.5 vs 53.4; Production contracting 49.6 vs 54.6; Inventories contracting at a slower rate 47.2 vs 41.6.
Backlog's decreasing 46 vs 51. Customer inventories growing too high 54 vs 50. Prices increasing 63 vs 59.
Comments:
We are experiencing a slight slow down of current orders, but see this as temporary. (Plastics & Rubber Products)
Business is softer than forecasted, market recovery appears to be delayed. (Transportation Equipment)
Heavy truck industry is not seeing signs of a recovery yet. (Fabricated Metal Products)
Business conditions are still sluggish. International orders are keeping us busy! (Machinery)
Comments