Market Soapbox 10/17/07
WEN, split tape, DJIA -20 on low volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, XMI, XAU, XOI.
Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -9 bps 4.56, $ down vs 1.491E & up vs 116.765y, WTI crude down $87.4, gold up $762.3
NDX gapped up from 2151 to 2182, fell to 2143, rise to close 2179. SP500 gapped up from 1538 to 1544, rise to 1550, fall to 1526, rise to close at 1541.
Oil topped $89 intraday, as predicted $90 near term, $100 if the Fed cuts again.
Yesterday: "What will financial & housing reports bring on the morrow?" Disappointment.
Standard & Poor's lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alt-A mortgage securities made in early 2007.
S&P analysts: "Standard & Poor's expects that conditions in the U.S. housing market, especially in the subprime sector...
will continue to decline before they improve, with home prices remaining under stress."
S&P two days ago reduced ratings on $4.6 billion of subprime bonds from 2005.
Moody's Investors Service last week lowered $33.4 billion of securities issued in 2006 and Fitch Ratings a week earlier cut $18.4 billion of debt.
S&P is reviewing collateralized debt obligations that contain the securities and said it will decide whether to downgrade the CDOs in the next few days.
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. forced to sell $21.9 billion of assets at a loss in August said it won't pay a dividend for the first time in its 14-year history.
United Technologies forecast revenue growth that will slow to an increase in the mid single digits as costs rise. A slump in the U.S. housing market will continue to hurt Carrier, its biggest unit.
Monday: "Is 1525 SP500 possible?" Yep, MAX PAIN 1520-1530 was breeched at the intraday low of 1526.
Curious how the NDX has not followed suit to 2120, yet. Watch overpriced Tech closely for clues.
Thurs 10/11, was a significant down day, at a near term peak with 30% higher volume across the board. Since 10/11 the broader market has downtrended.
SInce 10/11, the SOXX, XOI & XAU have run contra to the market, until yesterday, the XAU fell and today, the XOI also fell.
The NDX has support at 2125 and 2105, watch em. Another large volume down day breeching 2100 could push it off a cliff.
Next week, existing & new homes sales along with a slew of quarterly reports including...
Apple, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Centex, Pulte, Merrill Lynch & Countrywide Financial await. We are nearing a very critical juncture.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
Bonds up BIG 10 yr yield -9 bps 4.56, $ down vs 1.491E & up vs 116.765y, WTI crude down $87.4, gold up $762.3
NDX gapped up from 2151 to 2182, fell to 2143, rise to close 2179. SP500 gapped up from 1538 to 1544, rise to 1550, fall to 1526, rise to close at 1541.
Oil topped $89 intraday, as predicted $90 near term, $100 if the Fed cuts again.
Yesterday: "What will financial & housing reports bring on the morrow?" Disappointment.
Standard & Poor's lowered ratings on $23.4 billion of subprime and Alt-A mortgage securities made in early 2007.
S&P analysts: "Standard & Poor's expects that conditions in the U.S. housing market, especially in the subprime sector...
will continue to decline before they improve, with home prices remaining under stress."
S&P two days ago reduced ratings on $4.6 billion of subprime bonds from 2005.
Moody's Investors Service last week lowered $33.4 billion of securities issued in 2006 and Fitch Ratings a week earlier cut $18.4 billion of debt.
S&P is reviewing collateralized debt obligations that contain the securities and said it will decide whether to downgrade the CDOs in the next few days.
Thornburg Mortgage Inc. forced to sell $21.9 billion of assets at a loss in August said it won't pay a dividend for the first time in its 14-year history.
United Technologies forecast revenue growth that will slow to an increase in the mid single digits as costs rise. A slump in the U.S. housing market will continue to hurt Carrier, its biggest unit.
Monday: "Is 1525 SP500 possible?" Yep, MAX PAIN 1520-1530 was breeched at the intraday low of 1526.
Curious how the NDX has not followed suit to 2120, yet. Watch overpriced Tech closely for clues.
Thurs 10/11, was a significant down day, at a near term peak with 30% higher volume across the board. Since 10/11 the broader market has downtrended.
SInce 10/11, the SOXX, XOI & XAU have run contra to the market, until yesterday, the XAU fell and today, the XOI also fell.
The NDX has support at 2125 and 2105, watch em. Another large volume down day breeching 2100 could push it off a cliff.
Next week, existing & new homes sales along with a slew of quarterly reports including...
Apple, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Centex, Pulte, Merrill Lynch & Countrywide Financial await. We are nearing a very critical juncture.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
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