Market Soapbox 10/18/07

THU, wavy gravy, DJIA -5 on low volume with midlin internals. All UP cept DJUA, RUT, SP500.

Bonds up 10 yr yield -6bps 4.50, $ down vs 1.4294E & vs 115.65Y, WTI crude up 2.4% $89.47, gold up $768.7

NDX gapped down from 2179 to 2168, falling to 2161, rising to close 2188. SP500 gapped down from 1541 to 1539, fell to 1531, rose to close 1539 .

Dollar hit all time low vs Euro; Oil hit a new all time high. Google, Sandisk & AMD report after the bell.

The market is oscillating on weak legs, but acting resilent despite all the bad news. Another large volume down day would kick it down. It is a dead man walkin.

Is it a perfect setup to rise until Oct 31st? or will a someone step on a land mine? Like Countrywide Financial reporting next Friday? Or will they cook the books?

A market fall till Oct 31st almost guarantees a Fed cut. Next week, new and existing home sales, Pulte & Centex reports will be a disaster, but no one will care.

We smell more chop, then a breakout, one way or the other until the Fed meeting. Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!

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