Economic Reports 11/10/07
Summary: Trade Balance narrowed on a plunging dollar and resulting higher input prices. An economic slowing YTD accelerating since June, is painfully evident.
Import & Export Prices confirming trade balance and proving that REAL GDP is negative and we have double digit stagflation.
Trade Balance Sep -$56.5B vs prior -$57.6B Full Report
Inside the number: See Real Exports & Imports from Table 10 in chain weighted 2000 dollars.
Since June: increase in Exports attributable to Ag +12% & Industrial Supplies +5% (for others who are actually manufacturing.)
These increases reflect commodities price stagflation and outsourcing to labor at the margin.
Decreases in Exports of capital goods -1.5%, automobiles -8% and other goods -8.5% reflects an economic slowdown.
Since June, despite increased import prices due to a plunging dollar,
imports dropped an average of 2% across the board with the exception of capital goods and other goods.
Further confirmation: YTD increases across the board in exports & imports reflecting price stagflation,
excepting a precipitous YTD decrease of 4% in imported industrial supplies.
The price of industrial supplies jumped, yet we imported 4% less, thats not just a slowdown, its a shutdown repleat with layoffs.
Import Prices ex-oil Oct +0.5% vs -0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Petroleum +6.9%; YOY +41.4%. Import prices +1.8% vs +0.8%; YOY +9.6%.
Export prices +0.9% vs +0.3%; YOY +5.6%. YOY Ag +26.8% Export Prices ex-ag. Oct +0.5% vs -0.1%.
GDP +3.9%; Export Prices ex-ag YOY +3.9%, there you have it. And furthermore, Import Prices YOY +9.6% puts Real GDP conservatively at -9.6%.
Confirming the REAL negative growth GDP and 17% stagflation numbers we posted earlier this week.
Import & Export Prices confirming trade balance and proving that REAL GDP is negative and we have double digit stagflation.
Trade Balance Sep -$56.5B vs prior -$57.6B Full Report
Inside the number: See Real Exports & Imports from Table 10 in chain weighted 2000 dollars.
Since June: increase in Exports attributable to Ag +12% & Industrial Supplies +5% (for others who are actually manufacturing.)
These increases reflect commodities price stagflation and outsourcing to labor at the margin.
Decreases in Exports of capital goods -1.5%, automobiles -8% and other goods -8.5% reflects an economic slowdown.
Since June, despite increased import prices due to a plunging dollar,
imports dropped an average of 2% across the board with the exception of capital goods and other goods.
Further confirmation: YTD increases across the board in exports & imports reflecting price stagflation,
excepting a precipitous YTD decrease of 4% in imported industrial supplies.
The price of industrial supplies jumped, yet we imported 4% less, thats not just a slowdown, its a shutdown repleat with layoffs.
Import Prices ex-oil Oct +0.5% vs -0.2% Full Report
Inside the number: Petroleum +6.9%; YOY +41.4%. Import prices +1.8% vs +0.8%; YOY +9.6%.
Export prices +0.9% vs +0.3%; YOY +5.6%. YOY Ag +26.8% Export Prices ex-ag. Oct +0.5% vs -0.1%.
GDP +3.9%; Export Prices ex-ag YOY +3.9%, there you have it. And furthermore, Import Prices YOY +9.6% puts Real GDP conservatively at -9.6%.
Confirming the REAL negative growth GDP and 17% stagflation numbers we posted earlier this week.
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