Market Observations 11/10/07
Mon: "SP500 1445 awaits." SP500 gap down 1474 to 1467, crater to 1448, rise to sit on 300DMA 1453.
Tues: "over 50% of the gains in the NAZ are from 3 stocks: Apple, Google and Research in Motion."
And they have exhibited no immunity. Qualcomm and Cisco both issued lowered forward guidance for Q2 on lower sales.
A while back: "Watch Tech, when it collapses, it will lead the broader markets down." Fast & Furious, 3 days running to the tune of 9%.
NDX gap down 2106 to 2061, rise to 2078, cratering 3.5% to close below 50 & 75 DMA, sitting on 100 DMA 2035.
This two week decline is the worst since we started keeping track 09/15/05. PG flight to safety still above $70, if it falls below $67, watch out.
Yesterday: "Is today's late bounce off SP500 300DMA and NDX 75DMA a dead cat bounce? Keep your eye on SP500 1450." Mee-OWCH!!
2 days running 1450 visited intraday, also, keep your eye on 2030 NDX. Should these levels be breeched to the downside, NDX 1935 and SP500 1410 await, then Aug low 1370.
On 10/29 we Nattered: "(In Jan 01) the 2nd cut reinforced lower economic expectations and a weaker dollar, which sent the market into a 3 year tail spin.
Is history repeating itself?" It would appear so at the moment.
06/05: SP500 at 1530, "along with $140 Billion in handouts from the Treasury over the last 9 months (vis a vis the increase in repos, Thank Hank Paulson)....
have been providing life support for this "dead man walking" stock market and keeping the bond market afloat."
08/20: SP500 at 1445, "we see the potential Oct haircut as being the final stake in the heart of this "reanimated zombie" or "dead man walking" market."
The 2nd rate cut brought the carry trade haircut to 75 basis points making the yen carry trade unwind fast and furious.
10/18: SP500 at 1540 "Another large volume down day would kick it down. It is a dead man walkin."
The day after the 2nd cut on 11/01 was a high volume +300 point slamming that has seen fierce followthrough.
Warnings from JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America that potential write-downs would most likely pressure their Q4 results.
Debt downgrades, writedowns and escalating bank reserve requirements appear to be sidelining Santa's rally this year.
Is there any life support left for this dead man walkin? Gunslingin Benny the Fed has fired the only two bullets he had left in his six shooter.
A 25bps Dec cut or no cut, along with Q4 writedowns mid Jan probably bursts this echo bubble into a heap of financial and economic rubble.
In other words, the Fed is painted into a corner, and there is no way out. Unless they want to throw Momma from the Train and raise rates.
We'll say it again: Grab a seat, a box of popcorn, kickback and enjoy the trainwreck in progress, because the resulting horror show will be worth the ticket price.
At this point, it would seem to be a fait accompli. And remember theres got to be a morning after, if we can hang on through the night.
Or at least this weekends PPT emergency meeting. Sentiment & put/call ratios feel like the August low, perhaps a options expiration week rescue starting Veterans Day?
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
Tues: "over 50% of the gains in the NAZ are from 3 stocks: Apple, Google and Research in Motion."
And they have exhibited no immunity. Qualcomm and Cisco both issued lowered forward guidance for Q2 on lower sales.
A while back: "Watch Tech, when it collapses, it will lead the broader markets down." Fast & Furious, 3 days running to the tune of 9%.
NDX gap down 2106 to 2061, rise to 2078, cratering 3.5% to close below 50 & 75 DMA, sitting on 100 DMA 2035.
This two week decline is the worst since we started keeping track 09/15/05. PG flight to safety still above $70, if it falls below $67, watch out.
Yesterday: "Is today's late bounce off SP500 300DMA and NDX 75DMA a dead cat bounce? Keep your eye on SP500 1450." Mee-OWCH!!
2 days running 1450 visited intraday, also, keep your eye on 2030 NDX. Should these levels be breeched to the downside, NDX 1935 and SP500 1410 await, then Aug low 1370.
On 10/29 we Nattered: "(In Jan 01) the 2nd cut reinforced lower economic expectations and a weaker dollar, which sent the market into a 3 year tail spin.
Is history repeating itself?" It would appear so at the moment.
06/05: SP500 at 1530, "along with $140 Billion in handouts from the Treasury over the last 9 months (vis a vis the increase in repos, Thank Hank Paulson)....
have been providing life support for this "dead man walking" stock market and keeping the bond market afloat."
08/20: SP500 at 1445, "we see the potential Oct haircut as being the final stake in the heart of this "reanimated zombie" or "dead man walking" market."
The 2nd rate cut brought the carry trade haircut to 75 basis points making the yen carry trade unwind fast and furious.
10/18: SP500 at 1540 "Another large volume down day would kick it down. It is a dead man walkin."
The day after the 2nd cut on 11/01 was a high volume +300 point slamming that has seen fierce followthrough.
Warnings from JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America that potential write-downs would most likely pressure their Q4 results.
Debt downgrades, writedowns and escalating bank reserve requirements appear to be sidelining Santa's rally this year.
Is there any life support left for this dead man walkin? Gunslingin Benny the Fed has fired the only two bullets he had left in his six shooter.
A 25bps Dec cut or no cut, along with Q4 writedowns mid Jan probably bursts this echo bubble into a heap of financial and economic rubble.
In other words, the Fed is painted into a corner, and there is no way out. Unless they want to throw Momma from the Train and raise rates.
We'll say it again: Grab a seat, a box of popcorn, kickback and enjoy the trainwreck in progress, because the resulting horror show will be worth the ticket price.
At this point, it would seem to be a fait accompli. And remember theres got to be a morning after, if we can hang on through the night.
Or at least this weekends PPT emergency meeting. Sentiment & put/call ratios feel like the August low, perhaps a options expiration week rescue starting Veterans Day?
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
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