Chicago PMI; ADP Employment; GDP
Summary: If you like believing what you are told, stop here. If you can handle the truth, read on...
Hook in mouth media spun headlines... ADP Employment projects surprise +10K increase rather than forecast decrease.
Chicago PMI number increases as contraction slows.
GDP growth stronger than forecast as inventory build kept the economy afloat in Q1.
Upon further review... our nattering finds the grim details of the ugly truth hiding under the sheets.
ADP Employment Apr +10K vs prior +3K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 5K from +8K.
"Though April’s estimate for a small increase in employment is above consensus forecasts of an outright decline,
it nevertheless suggests that a sharp deceleration of employment continues."
The emasculation continues... Service sector +64K; goods producing -54K, the 17th consecutive monthly decline.
Manufacturing -26K, the 20th consecutive monthly decline. Construction -28K, the 17th consecutive decline.
Meaningful growth can only be found in small payroll services sector. Financial sevices -2K.
Business size: Large -18K; ,medium -14K; small +42K. Goods producing: Large -11K; medium -29K; small -14K. Services: Large -7K; medium +15K; small +56K.
Chicago PMI Apr 48.3 vs prior 48.2 Full Report
Inside the number: The number is still negative which indicates contraction for the 3rd straight month.
Employment falling below 40 for the 2nd time this year and declining 5 straight months, 35.3 vs 44.6.
Prices paid soared above 80 for the 3rd time this year; 82.9 vs 83.9. Order backlogs contracted 39.5 vs 36.8.
New Orders slowed 53 vs 53.9. Inventories, the "growth" in our economy, bloating 51.9 vs 42 as the consumer pulls back.
GDP-Adv. Q1 +0.6% vs prior +0.6% Full Report
An inventory build is viewed as "growth", despite the weakest consumer spending since 2001 and the biggest drop in home building in more than 26 years.
As consumer spending pulled back... real PCE +1%; durable -6.1%; non durable -1.3%
and price stagflation took hold; services +3.4% while real imports increased +2.5% vs Q4 -1.4%
Price indexes: non durable PCE +6.6%; imports of goods +13.8%, all on $120 a barrel oil... Thanks Shrub G. Dubya!!!!
Inventories bloated with stocks of unsold goods rising at a $1.8 billion annual rate in Q1 after shrinking at an $18.3 billion rate in Q4 of last year.
Cap Ex non existent with real non residential fixed investment declining -2.5% vs Q4 +6%. Residential construction 2006 -4.6%; 2007 -17%; Q108 Yoy -21.2%
Spending on residential construction plunged at a 26.7% rate - the 9th straight quarterly decline and the largest quarterly decline since 1981.
Final sales to domestic purchasers -0.4%; final sales of domestic product -0.2%. Yoy Motor Vehicle Output -10.8%
The inventory bloat nonfarm added (+0.93%) to GDP, with Federal National Defense expeditures flaring 6% vs -0.5%, (+0.28%)
saving the humiliation of reporting a GDP with negative growth of -0.61%, pathetic at best.
Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at IDEAglobal: "We expect that the coming inventory correction will send growth into negative territory,
save a truly heroic effort by the U.S. consumer to spend their way out of the current malaise with their $600 rebates."
Hook in mouth media spun headlines... ADP Employment projects surprise +10K increase rather than forecast decrease.
Chicago PMI number increases as contraction slows.
GDP growth stronger than forecast as inventory build kept the economy afloat in Q1.
Upon further review... our nattering finds the grim details of the ugly truth hiding under the sheets.
ADP Employment Apr +10K vs prior +3K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 5K from +8K.
"Though April’s estimate for a small increase in employment is above consensus forecasts of an outright decline,
it nevertheless suggests that a sharp deceleration of employment continues."
The emasculation continues... Service sector +64K; goods producing -54K, the 17th consecutive monthly decline.
Manufacturing -26K, the 20th consecutive monthly decline. Construction -28K, the 17th consecutive decline.
Meaningful growth can only be found in small payroll services sector. Financial sevices -2K.
Business size: Large -18K; ,medium -14K; small +42K. Goods producing: Large -11K; medium -29K; small -14K. Services: Large -7K; medium +15K; small +56K.
Chicago PMI Apr 48.3 vs prior 48.2 Full Report
Inside the number: The number is still negative which indicates contraction for the 3rd straight month.
Employment falling below 40 for the 2nd time this year and declining 5 straight months, 35.3 vs 44.6.
Prices paid soared above 80 for the 3rd time this year; 82.9 vs 83.9. Order backlogs contracted 39.5 vs 36.8.
New Orders slowed 53 vs 53.9. Inventories, the "growth" in our economy, bloating 51.9 vs 42 as the consumer pulls back.
GDP-Adv. Q1 +0.6% vs prior +0.6% Full Report
An inventory build is viewed as "growth", despite the weakest consumer spending since 2001 and the biggest drop in home building in more than 26 years.
As consumer spending pulled back... real PCE +1%; durable -6.1%; non durable -1.3%
and price stagflation took hold; services +3.4% while real imports increased +2.5% vs Q4 -1.4%
Price indexes: non durable PCE +6.6%; imports of goods +13.8%, all on $120 a barrel oil... Thanks Shrub G. Dubya!!!!
Inventories bloated with stocks of unsold goods rising at a $1.8 billion annual rate in Q1 after shrinking at an $18.3 billion rate in Q4 of last year.
Cap Ex non existent with real non residential fixed investment declining -2.5% vs Q4 +6%. Residential construction 2006 -4.6%; 2007 -17%; Q108 Yoy -21.2%
Spending on residential construction plunged at a 26.7% rate - the 9th straight quarterly decline and the largest quarterly decline since 1981.
Final sales to domestic purchasers -0.4%; final sales of domestic product -0.2%. Yoy Motor Vehicle Output -10.8%
The inventory bloat nonfarm added (+0.93%) to GDP, with Federal National Defense expeditures flaring 6% vs -0.5%, (+0.28%)
saving the humiliation of reporting a GDP with negative growth of -0.61%, pathetic at best.
Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist at IDEAglobal: "We expect that the coming inventory correction will send growth into negative territory,
save a truly heroic effort by the U.S. consumer to spend their way out of the current malaise with their $600 rebates."
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