Sinking Fast

According to Barclays Capital analysts:

Mortgage loans are moving underwater at a very sharp pace, far more than suggested by aggregate home price data.

About half of subprime and Alt-A mortgages made in 2006 and 2007 may be "underwater" or close to it by midyear,

putting about $800 billion of debt at greater risk of default.

Borrowers on about 26% of subprime loans from 2006 and 2007 will have equity of less than 10% by midyear, Alt-A mortgages should hold steady at about 23.5%.

How fast are housing prices sinking underwater? Only 10.8% of Alt-A loans were underwater on Sept. 30.

By Dec 31th, that number grew to 16.3% and should grow to 23% by mid year.

Subprime "underwater" jumped 5% to 19.8% in Q4, and may reach 26% by midyear.

The Nattering One muses... connect the dots... OFHEO has California, Nevada & Florida with huge 5-6% Q4 price declines...

S&P Case Schiller confirms with 4% in Feb and 20% Yoy declines. Countrywide has 43% of its portfolio in California; 7% in Florida.

49% of Subprime & Alt-A loans will have less than 10% equity or be underwater by mid year.

The acceleration of defaults is already becoming apparent, we suspect a long cruel summer for real estate prices.

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