Ny Empire Jul; Retail Sales Jun; Business Inventories May; PPI Jun
Summary: Headline reads, NY Empire rises on new orders & shipments. Under the sheets...
conditions worsened for the third consecutive month as prices paid & received hit record highs and business activity deteriorated further.
Headline reads, retail sales ex auto up. Under the sheets... retail sales ex gasoline declined as John Q pulls back and makes tough decisions.
Headline reads, business inventories up. Under the sheets... double digit price stagflation at the wholesale level.
Headline reads, Total PPI rises above expectations while Core PPI rose less than expected. Under the sheets... PPI with the largest YoY increase in 27 years.
NY Empire State Index Jul -4.9 vs -8.7 Full Report
Inside the number: -4.9%, the sixth straight month below or near zero. Prices paid 78 vs 66; prices received 32.6 vs 27;
employees -6.3 vs 1; workweek -8.4 vs -2.3; Cap Ex 11 vs 22; Tech spending 6.3 vs 9.3
Future general conditions fell sharply, 15.6 vs 32 reaching a level not seen since Sept 2001.
Substantially more manufacturers reported scaling back production plans 35 vs 27.
Retail Sales Jun +0.1% vs +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Sales ex-auto Jun +0.8% vs +1.2%; auto -3.6% vs -0.8%; ex gasoline & auto total sales -0.5%.
furniture -1.4% vs +0.3%; electronics -0.6% vs +1.7%; building materials -0.9% vs +2.3%; food services -0.2% vs +0.8%; gasoline +4.6% vs +3.3%
Vs Jun 07: Auto -10.5%; furniture -5.4%; building materials -1.5%; gasoline +24.5%;
Business Inventories May +0.3% vs +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: unadjusted for price changes...
Yoy Sales: Total +6.6%; Manufacturers +4.7%; Retail +1.8%; Wholesale +13.7%.
Yoy Inventories Total +5.2%; Manufacturers +6.1%; Retail +1.5%; Wholesale +8.7%
PPI Jun +1.8% vs +1.4% Full Report
Inside the number: YOY PPI +9.2%, a surge unseen since 1981. Core PPI Jun - 0.3% 0.2%
Monthly: Finished goods +1.9%; Intermediate +2.1%; Crude +3.7%; gasoline +9%; freight trucking +2.9%; air transport +5.8%; electric power +3.3%.
YTD SAAR finished goods +12.4%; intermediate +22.5%; crude +74%; materials: non durable +27.4%; durable +31.7%.
We gently repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming stagflation is under double digits is a paid liar, a fool, or both.
conditions worsened for the third consecutive month as prices paid & received hit record highs and business activity deteriorated further.
Headline reads, retail sales ex auto up. Under the sheets... retail sales ex gasoline declined as John Q pulls back and makes tough decisions.
Headline reads, business inventories up. Under the sheets... double digit price stagflation at the wholesale level.
Headline reads, Total PPI rises above expectations while Core PPI rose less than expected. Under the sheets... PPI with the largest YoY increase in 27 years.
NY Empire State Index Jul -4.9 vs -8.7 Full Report
Inside the number: -4.9%, the sixth straight month below or near zero. Prices paid 78 vs 66; prices received 32.6 vs 27;
employees -6.3 vs 1; workweek -8.4 vs -2.3; Cap Ex 11 vs 22; Tech spending 6.3 vs 9.3
Future general conditions fell sharply, 15.6 vs 32 reaching a level not seen since Sept 2001.
Substantially more manufacturers reported scaling back production plans 35 vs 27.
Retail Sales Jun +0.1% vs +0.8% Full Report
Inside the number: Sales ex-auto Jun +0.8% vs +1.2%; auto -3.6% vs -0.8%; ex gasoline & auto total sales -0.5%.
furniture -1.4% vs +0.3%; electronics -0.6% vs +1.7%; building materials -0.9% vs +2.3%; food services -0.2% vs +0.8%; gasoline +4.6% vs +3.3%
Vs Jun 07: Auto -10.5%; furniture -5.4%; building materials -1.5%; gasoline +24.5%;
Business Inventories May +0.3% vs +0.5% Full Report
Inside the number: unadjusted for price changes...
Yoy Sales: Total +6.6%; Manufacturers +4.7%; Retail +1.8%; Wholesale +13.7%.
Yoy Inventories Total +5.2%; Manufacturers +6.1%; Retail +1.5%; Wholesale +8.7%
PPI Jun +1.8% vs +1.4% Full Report
Inside the number: YOY PPI +9.2%, a surge unseen since 1981. Core PPI Jun - 0.3% 0.2%
Monthly: Finished goods +1.9%; Intermediate +2.1%; Crude +3.7%; gasoline +9%; freight trucking +2.9%; air transport +5.8%; electric power +3.3%.
YTD SAAR finished goods +12.4%; intermediate +22.5%; crude +74%; materials: non durable +27.4%; durable +31.7%.
We gently repeat one of our mantras: ANYONE claiming stagflation is under double digits is a paid liar, a fool, or both.
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