Market Observations 11/22/08
Resistance: DJIA 8620 (4100DMA); SP500 853 (5300DMA); NAZ 1511 (5300DMA); NDX 1145 (5200DMA)
Support: DJIA 7470 (5100DMA); SP500 735 (6500DMA); NAZ 1290 (6500DMA); NDX 1020 (6500DMA)
SP500 752, drop to 741, rocket rise to close 800. NDX 1036, gap up 1052, dip to 1018, rocket ride to close 1085.
FRI: Business Sales Sep -2%; Retail Sales Oct -1.3%; ex-auto -2.2%; the longest string of declines since records began in 1992.
MON: Sillybank cutting 52K jobs or 14%; Target cut capital spending by $1 billion. Japan -0.4% GDP; joins Eurozone in an official recession.
TUE: Oct Core PPI +0.4%. Semiconductor market to shrink by 2.2% in 2009. Treasury bought $33.6 billion in preferred stock from 21 banks, total at $158 billion.
WEN: Oct NAHB/WF Housing Index at 9; Housing Starts -4.5% at 791K; Building Permits -12% at 708K; all three at the lowest levels on record. CPI Oct -1%; the largest decline since 1947 indicating extremely weak demand.
THU: Dell Q3 net -5%; Initial Claims +27K at 542K; continuing claims +4 million; both at 26 yr highs. Philadelphia Fed Nov -39.3 vs -37.5 an 18 yr low. A bounce? perhaps.
FRI: Geithner Treasury appointment spurs a head fake as the dead cat bounced off SP500 741; a number not seen since 1997. GMAC & Ford applied with FDIC for bank status to get insurance & Fed funds.
Two more name brands... U.S. Bank will assume the first $1.6 billion of losses on asset pools for: Downey S&L with 170 branches; total assets of $12.8 billion and total deposits of $9.7 billion....
and PFF Bank with 38 branches; total assets of $3.7 billion and total deposits of $2.4 billion. The soon to be insolvent FDIC will then share in any further losses.
Dot.com echo bubble blow off continues... VIX hits all time high 80; SP500 hits 11 yr low, YTD -49%; a record drop in its 80 year history. GE $13 with a 10% yield.
Olivier Blanchard: "The worst is yet to come," the IMF's top economist was sounding Natterish in Finanz und Wirtschaft...
as he noted how the banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy by hitting the carmaking industry.
"This is only the beginning. The risk exists that the data will get worse and worse, which would then lead to more pessimistic expectations and accelerate a fall in demand." Amen brother.
Whats the next brand name? GE? Sillybank? Jefferson County? California? Argentina? Fed funds at zero? PBGC & FDIC bailouts? 10% unemployment? crude at $35? Dow at 4K?
How bout all of the above? As VP of Turkey's Gov. Palin would squeel, You betcha! As Chef Prudhomme would have said, I GAAROUNTEE.. and maybe sooner than even I think.
Santa rally coming? Perhaps, hapless bargain hunters nibbling at cheese...
will get their heads severed, as the trap slams down and this legless zombie falls on its face again to plumb even newer depths.
Pension deficit disorder... I can't imagine the horror of watching hard earned 401K & pension funds vaporize while sitting idly by.
Like we said before, those killed at ground zero were lucky...
and if you are fortunate to survive the fallout, you will face the pension & SS crisis, as plan after plan will be dissolved by BK...
sending many scrambling like turkeys, flushed out of the brush, back into a non durable job market with double digit unemployment.
Buy a ticket, get some popcorn and take a seat, cuz much like Palins massacre video, this unstoppable horror show will be worth the price of admission.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Support: DJIA 7470 (5100DMA); SP500 735 (6500DMA); NAZ 1290 (6500DMA); NDX 1020 (6500DMA)
SP500 752, drop to 741, rocket rise to close 800. NDX 1036, gap up 1052, dip to 1018, rocket ride to close 1085.
FRI: Business Sales Sep -2%; Retail Sales Oct -1.3%; ex-auto -2.2%; the longest string of declines since records began in 1992.
MON: Sillybank cutting 52K jobs or 14%; Target cut capital spending by $1 billion. Japan -0.4% GDP; joins Eurozone in an official recession.
TUE: Oct Core PPI +0.4%. Semiconductor market to shrink by 2.2% in 2009. Treasury bought $33.6 billion in preferred stock from 21 banks, total at $158 billion.
WEN: Oct NAHB/WF Housing Index at 9; Housing Starts -4.5% at 791K; Building Permits -12% at 708K; all three at the lowest levels on record. CPI Oct -1%; the largest decline since 1947 indicating extremely weak demand.
THU: Dell Q3 net -5%; Initial Claims +27K at 542K; continuing claims +4 million; both at 26 yr highs. Philadelphia Fed Nov -39.3 vs -37.5 an 18 yr low. A bounce? perhaps.
FRI: Geithner Treasury appointment spurs a head fake as the dead cat bounced off SP500 741; a number not seen since 1997. GMAC & Ford applied with FDIC for bank status to get insurance & Fed funds.
Two more name brands... U.S. Bank will assume the first $1.6 billion of losses on asset pools for: Downey S&L with 170 branches; total assets of $12.8 billion and total deposits of $9.7 billion....
and PFF Bank with 38 branches; total assets of $3.7 billion and total deposits of $2.4 billion. The soon to be insolvent FDIC will then share in any further losses.
Dot.com echo bubble blow off continues... VIX hits all time high 80; SP500 hits 11 yr low, YTD -49%; a record drop in its 80 year history. GE $13 with a 10% yield.
Olivier Blanchard: "The worst is yet to come," the IMF's top economist was sounding Natterish in Finanz und Wirtschaft...
as he noted how the banking sector's woes had started to spill over into the real economy by hitting the carmaking industry.
"This is only the beginning. The risk exists that the data will get worse and worse, which would then lead to more pessimistic expectations and accelerate a fall in demand." Amen brother.
Whats the next brand name? GE? Sillybank? Jefferson County? California? Argentina? Fed funds at zero? PBGC & FDIC bailouts? 10% unemployment? crude at $35? Dow at 4K?
How bout all of the above? As VP of Turkey's Gov. Palin would squeel, You betcha! As Chef Prudhomme would have said, I GAAROUNTEE.. and maybe sooner than even I think.
Santa rally coming? Perhaps, hapless bargain hunters nibbling at cheese...
will get their heads severed, as the trap slams down and this legless zombie falls on its face again to plumb even newer depths.
Pension deficit disorder... I can't imagine the horror of watching hard earned 401K & pension funds vaporize while sitting idly by.
Like we said before, those killed at ground zero were lucky...
and if you are fortunate to survive the fallout, you will face the pension & SS crisis, as plan after plan will be dissolved by BK...
sending many scrambling like turkeys, flushed out of the brush, back into a non durable job market with double digit unemployment.
Buy a ticket, get some popcorn and take a seat, cuz much like Palins massacre video, this unstoppable horror show will be worth the price of admission.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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