The Fallout 9: The Grand Illusion

Continued from Part 8. We have Nattered many a time.... Until our durable job base is restored, with real jobs and decent pay, there will be continued malaise and no recovery.

"Let us pledge that employment will be the first priority of our economic policy. Let us pledge that there will be security for all those who are now at work, and let us pledge that there will be jobs for all who are out of work; and we will not compromise on the issue of jobs."


David Stockman: "An economy that is not creating breadwinner jobs, gains in real household incomes and real increases in productive assets is not remotely worth 20X earnings."


The decimation of our durable economy continues. US companies are still expatriating jobs overseas, to labor at the margin.


"To all those who doubt the future of our economy, let us provide new hope for the reindustrialization of America."


Over the last 60 years, the number of part time employees in non-ag industries has grown roughly 400%.

Housing, cap-ex, government hiring, durable economic expenditures are all suffering as part time service and healthcare jobs take over the economic base.

"Let us pledge that we will never misuse unemployment, high interest rates, and human misery as false weapons against inflation."


In six years, to bail out the rich incumbents of the failed House of Finance, the Fed buys $4 Trillion in bank securities and prints up $4 Trillion in new cash.  


In concert, to their symphony of debauching the currency, all central banks have flooded the globe with almost $30 Trillion in funny money.


Much like the 80's and early in this millenia, today's stock market valuations are not based upon fundamentals, rather multiples expansion and stock buy backs...


80% of the SP500 growth during 2013 was driven by P/E multiple expansion rather than higher earnings.


This same trend continues in Q2 2014 as 95% of the growth is attributed to P/E multiple expansion


which is by definition "the expanding hope of future growth and revenues".  "Growth" that is based upon smoke and mirrors and which may or may not occur.


This tsunami of monopoly money has penalized seniors, savers, prudent investors, and the poor. While rewarding borrowers, leverager's, risk takers and the wealthy.


"To all those who see the worth of their work and their savings taken by inflation, let us offer new hope for a stable economy. We must meet the pressures of the present by invoking the full power of government to master increasing prices.


In candor, we must say that the Federal budget can be balanced only by policies that bring us to a balanced prosperity of full employment and price restraint.


And to all those overburdened by an unfair tax structure, let us provide new hope for real tax reform. Instead of shutting down classrooms, let us shut off tax shelters.


Instead of cutting out school lunches, let us cut off tax subsidies for expensive business lunches that are nothing more than food stamps for the rich.


So if you think your life is complete confusion, because your neighbors got it made...  Most equity shares in America are owned by the wealthiest 10%. The top 2,915 richest Americans earn more than the poorest 23,303,064 Americans combined.




America spells competition, join us in our blind ambition... Wage growth for the typical American has been virtually absent. If the median household income had kept pace with the economy since 1970, it would now be nearly $92,000, not $50,000.  Since 1990 real median household income has declined, while the cost of an existing home has doubled.




Meanwhile the paid liar's are parroting... inflation is tame and under the Fed 2% target... Goebbels would be proud.  


As anyone who pays bills or shops at the market knows, inflation or as it should be called, stagflation, has been running wild in double digits for over a decade.


"The demand of our people in 1980 is not for smaller government or bigger government but for better government. Some say that government is always bad and that spending for basic social programs is the root of our economic evils. But we reply: The present inflation and recession cost our economy $200 billion a year. We reply: Inflation and unemployment are the biggest spenders of all."


The unemployment situation with the REAL number probably at or about 20%, still less than Spain's 26%, is a disaster.


"To all those who are idle in the cities and industries of America let us provide new hope for the dignity of useful work."


In a recent Fed survey, entitled "the economic well being of US households", when questioned:


Which one of the following best describes how well you are managing financially these days? Almost 40% responded either "just getting by" or "finding it very difficult to get by".  


34.4% indicated that they were either "somewhat worse" or "much worse" off financially than five years ago.


Almost 60% or six of ten respondents do not have enough money to cover expenses for 3 months.


"Circumstances may change, but the work of compassion must continue. It is surely correct that we cannot solve problems by throwing money at them, but it is also correct that we dare not throw out our national problems onto a scrap heap of inattention and indifference. The poor may be out of political fashion, but they are not without human needs. The middle class may be angry, but they have not lost the dream that all Americans can advance together.


The task of leadership in 1980 is not to parade scapegoats or to seek refuge in reaction, but to match our power to the possibilities of progress."


The recovery in all its forms is a Grand Illusion which has created broadbased bubbles in finance, banking, housing, stocks, bonds and real estate. But the real Fallout is the cost to our society... more to come in Part 10.


Quotations from Edward Kennedy's "The Cause Endures" speech given at the 1980 DNC.


Someday soon we'll stop to ponder what on Earth's this spell we're under.  We made the grade and still we wonder who the hell we are... 


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