2015 NFL Playoffs - Super Bowl XLIX - Recap

Go to original Super Bowl post for pick'em, legend, stats and full comments. Go to original wild card post for playing against TOM (turn over margin differential) analysis.

This Year

2015 playoffs SU:  Home 8-3;  Road 3-8; Fav 8-3; Dog 3-8; Home Fav 7-3;  Home Dog 0-1; Road Fav 1-0;  Road Dog 3-7.

2015 playoffs ATS:  Home 4-7;  Road 7-4 ; Fav 5-6; Dog 6-5; Home Fav 4-6;  Home Dog 0-1; Road Fav 1-0;  Road Dog 6-4.

2015 playoff totals: 
WC 43;47;36;44
DIV 66:48;47;37
CON 50;52
SB 52

Our 2015 Playoff Picks ATS 4-7; SU 7-4
Super Bowl 0-1 ATS; 0-1 SU
Champion.  0-2 ATS; 2-0 SU
Divisional   2-2 ATS; 2-2 SU
Wild Card   2-2 ATS; 3-1 SU


Super Bowl XLIX

Sun Feb 1, 6:30PM EST NBC
NE-SEA +2 O/U 48
BOLD LOCK, SEA getting +2 and to win.
RESULT: NE 28 - 24 SEA
Turnover Margin: SEA +1

Preview Excerpts: Unlike DEN, the Patriot's should make a game of this.

"What excites and interests the looker-on at life, what the romances and the statues celebrate, and the grim civic monuments remind us of, is the everlasting battle of the powers of light with those of darkness with heroism reduced to its bare chance, yet ever and anon snatching victory from the jaws of death."  - William James (1842-1910)

Otto Graham won 4 AAFC Championships ('46, '47, '48, '49) and 3 NFL championships (50, 54, 55). Bart Starr won 5 NFL Championships (61, 62, 65, 66, 67) the latter being the first two Super Bowls. This year, Tom Brady joined Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with 4 Super Bowl rings, and is the only QB to win six conference championships. 

With Belichick's coaching and Brady's Q4 channeling of Joe Montana; 13 of 15 for 124 yards with 2 TD; 8 of 8 for 65 yards on the final drive; the "road" favorite Patriots emerged victorious in a thrilling game which broke most known statistical rules and defied all odds. But in the end it would be the Seahawks snatching "defeat from the jaws of victory". How? Read on.

The four SEA losses (@SD, DAL, @STL, @KC) vs teams committed to the run +30 attempts and +135 yds.  Will NE commit to the run? Probably not. I would be shocked if NE gained more than 75 yds rushing.

The Patriots gained 57 yards rushing on 21 attempts.


In the four NE losses (@MIA; @KC; @GB; BUF), the Pats offense was held to under 320 total yds. 

The Patriots gained 377 total yards.


Seahawk opponents have been well served targeting their TE's: 11 TD's; 1 ints; QBR 87. Expect Gronkowski to split out wide with 3 inches and 70 pounds on injured SEA cornerback Sherman (arm). 

Gronk was targeted 10 times with 6 receptions for 68 yards.


I expect Belichick to go to his teams strength, passing
Against the NFL's #1 pass defense (185 yds/gm), expect Brady to be pressured on deep routes (+15 yds) and utilize short routes for 200-250 yds passing. 

Brady 37 of 52 for 328 yards with 2 ints
Deep passing +15 yards: 2 of 6 for 43 yards
Short passing -15 yards: 35 of 44 for 285 yards

Expect SEA #1 ground game (173 yd gm; 5.3YPC) to test Belichick's defense. SEA should hold the rock 31 min+ while gaining 135-200 rushing yds on 30-35 attempts minimum. 

The Seahawks held the rock for 26 minutes while gaining 162 yards rushing on 29 attempts.

Wilson should get 150-250 yds passing on short routes with few attempts.

Wrong on "short routes" as the Patriots were caught deep while cheating up in an attempt to stop the run.

Wilson 12 of 21 for 247 yards with 1 int
Short passing -15 yards: 6 of 8 for 46 yards
Deep passing +15 yards: 6 of 12 for 201 yards

The Patriots, since 2000 (Belichick/Brady era), in all games; opponent runs for 135 yds+ and NE total yds -400 total yds; 20-26 .434

This game qualified. However, the Patriots 56.6% chance of losing was really an 83.3% chance of losing, up till the "final" play. How? Read on.

The Seahawks, since 2010 (Pete Carroll era), in all games; SEA runs for 135 yds+ and opp. total yds -400; 30-6 .833.

This game qualified. However, the Patriots 83.3% chance of losing was actually a 98.7% chance of losing, including the "final" play. How? Read on.

After trailing 14-7 in the 2nd quarter, with 12 minutes remaining, the Seahawks had scored 17 unanswered points in forging a 10 point lead with a turn over margin of +2. 

1. Since 2012, Seattle was 18-0 when leading by at least 10 points at the end of the 3rd quarter. 

2. Largest deficit overcome in SB history, 10 points in the 1st half, overcome by both the 09 Saints and 87 Redskins. The Patriots became the 1st team to come back from a 10 point deficit in the 2nd half. 

3. Regardless of turnover margin, teams such as the Patriots, throwing two interceptions in the Super Bowl, are 4-28 or have lost 87.5% of the time.  

4. Since the 1970 merger, playoff teams with (turn over margin) TOM +2 or greater: 212-26 winning percentage of 89.1%.  Seattle qualified until 0:26 remaining.

5. With the above and rushing for 160+ yards: 72-1 = 98.6%

6. With #4 and #5 above and a lead of 10+ points after the 3rd quarter: 54-0 = 100%.

7. Accounting for the "final" play... with #4 and #5 above and reducing TOM to +1 or greater:  77-1 = 98.7% chance of the Seahawks winning.

Officiating gaffs: The officials granted the Patriots 15 yards in both of their Q4 TD drives.

1. A dubious 15 yd roughing call on Earl Thomas contributing to the 1st of two heroic Q4 TD drives by Brady.  In between those two drives...

2. With 7:44 remaining, SEA WR Lockette ran a deep crossing route over the middle as NE DB Butler turned following him in man coverage. Butler tripped as Lockette cut inside. Butler fell and reached out with his hand illegally tripping Lockette to the ground. Lockette threw up his hands knowing he was interfered with, but the referees did not throw the penalty flag. Rookie Butler made a veteran play, knowing he would risk giving up 15 penalty yds, rather than a long gain. Subsequently, Seattle punted after a quick three and out. The non call contributed at least 15 yds in field position to the Patriots 2nd Q4 TD. A breakdown of the play can be seen here.

Freak plays: SEA WR Kearse's miracle 33 yard juggling circus pass catch setting the Seahawks up 1st and goal at the Patriot 6 yard line with 1:06 left and two time outs. A breakdown of the play can be seen here.

Despite all of the above, the Patriots 98.7% chance of losing the game was actually only 97.7%. How? Read on.

The Seahawks laid 5 eggs in an aberration vs the Pack and lived to talk about it. In the next week they will be TO drilled silly and should be turnover proof for this game.

The Seahawks were turnover proof until 0:26 remaining, with 2nd and goal from the Patriot one yard line, and a timeout to spare. After being sliced for a five yard ground gain like a hot knife through butter, in anticipation of a pass play, the Patriots lined up in Cover 1 Man with no D-line stack, 9 men spread on the line, two CB's deep...

Shades of Starr plunging over in the Ice Bowl came to mind as Wilson lined up in the shot gun... thinking he might just walk up, tap his center (code for QB sneak) quickly take the snap, then plunge... or as he had in last years SB on 2nd and goal from the one, when he turned and handed off to the Beast over left guard for a 14-0 lead.. 

If stopped, call time out, call two running plays and if you can't gain three feet, then you deserve to finish outside... BUT NO!!!  Some "genius" on the Seahawk sideline, who gets paid millions, decided to put the ball in the air, and at risk, by calling a pass play, a breakdown of the play can be seen here.

In the shotgun formation with two wide outs stacked to the right, one must credit the Patriots who "knew" this was a "pick" pass play and defended it accordingly. Intuitively, many fans anticipated pass, but hope was high, perhaps a Bill Walsh-esque ruse by Carroll setting up a Wilson QB draw? Perhaps the young QB would recognize the defensive alignment as being severely mismatched against the run, and audible into a running play from that formation? BUT NO!!! 

To no avail, as soon as Wilson faded back and cocked his arm, hope was dashed to the rocks... with hands firmly pressed into their temples, many screamed in slow motion NOOOOOO!!!   WTF ARE YOU DOING??? As they knew what was coming next... the repeat bid was shot down in flames, oh the humanity... 

With their ticket in hand and about to cross into the promised land to join an uber exclusive club of back to back or repeat offenders (GB 66-67, MIA 72-73, PIT 74-75; 78-79, SF 88-89, DAL 92-93 and NE 03-04) the Seahawks "brain" trust EEG went flatline, (hello, is there anybody in there?) and decided to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" (much like here and here) by refusing the ticket, which CB Butler quickly snatched and Belichick's boys thankfully redeemed into a fourth Lombardi trophy. 

Karmic payback for the Lions idiocy at Dallas in the Wild Card game? The Lions had a 14-0 lead and stopped running the ball? The Cowboys subsequent idiocy in Green Bay? The Pokes gave away their divisional matchup to the Packers and might have beaten the Seahawks? Karmic payback for the Packers coaching idiocy in Seattle? The Packers handed the title game to the Seahawks and could have beaten the Patriots? All accounts were paid forward to the Patriots, Brady and Belichick in this seasons final incomprehensible act. 

NBC color commentator Collinsworth aptly noted: “I’m sorry, I can’t believe the call. I cannot believe the call,” Collinsworth moaned. “You’ve got Marshawn Lynch in the backfield. You’ve got a guy who has been borderline unstoppable. I can’t believe the call.” In such disbelief, he went at it again. “I don’t believe it. I’m sitting here and I absolutely can’t believe the call,” even more frustrated, “If I lose a Super Bowl because Marshawn Lynch can’t get it in, so be it — so be it. But there’s no way. I don’t believe the call."  

And neither do many aficionados of the game, who tongue tied and twisted (like these two, but unlike this one), cannot get over the fact that ANYONE of sound judgment would call a pass play targeted in that vicinity, thrown in that manner, under those circumstances and in that situation. Not even the most aggressive Bill Walsh or Don Coryell aerial attack or a pee-wee league coach on beer would have. Deion Sanders deemed it to be the worst play call and worst QB decision in SB history. Collinsworth and Sanders commentary can be seen and heard here. As the Seahawks were not just "learning to fly", there simply is no excuse for their coaching staffs complete momentary lapse of reason, and three phrases come to mind:

Stupid is as stupid does - Forrest Gump
You can't fix stupid - Ron White
There are idiots, look around - Larry Summers

But that's why their the "professionals" and get paid the big bucks... FYI, In the playoffs, since 1998, on 2nd, 3rd or 4th and goal from the one yard line: 153 plays; only 35 pass attempts; of which two have been intercepted.

Wilson joins Kurt Warner (ARZ 08) and Jim Kelly (BUF 92) as the only the third QB in Super Bowl history to throw an interception from the opponents one yard line. 

In all games since 1998, with 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line: 1770 plays; 1334 run plays (75.4%) resulting in 760 TD's (57% success); 436 pass plays (24.6%); resulting in 21 sacks; 214 completions resulting in 205 TD's (47% success). 

...and only 10 INTERCEPTIONS for .023% or 97.7% of pass attempts in that situation which were NOT intercepted. That's how "against all odds" the final result was for the Patriots or the Seahawks, depending on how you look at it.