The Monetary Pressure Gauge?
Over on SA at Doug Terry's Monetary Pressure Gauge, he commented "Once the bar is set lower on oil, we will get the real picture of what is going on in the economy."
We Nattered: The real picture? Dammit Jim, its not flat, its dead. The economy never recovered, outside of the "gasoline rebate checks", +$85M in Q2 GDP PCE spending accounting for +3.1% of the +3.7%, our economy is still contracting on the latest massive bubble deflation, just like the rest of the globe.
I recently picked apart the three pillars of past economic recoveries, auto sales, housing and credit market "growth, which was being hyped domestically, here..
Looked great on the surface, but upon further inspection under the sheets, a train wreck waiting to happen. Quite frankly, lending more money to people already buried in debt isn't really a good business model and never has been. And calling it a "recovery", is a public disservice. I prefer to take a jaundiced eye to this kind of jabberwocky.
The train wreck is exemplified in the longer term by real median household income declining 9% since 1998. According to the Feds own definition of weak economic conditions, as in the indexed core PCE annual change being under 2%... we have been wallowing in the mire since 1998.... Chart here
...with only three serial bubbles (dot.com, housing MBS, QEZIRP) to account for any "growth". Unlike a traditional "retain and reinvest" strategy, which would be "value creation", this bubbilicious "growth" seems to provide for a "value extraction" strategy, and redistribution of income up the pyramid. See here for further elucidation.
Bottom line: At the moment, global contractionary economic trajectory seems headed for not an explosion, but an implosion. Lacking a durable economic base to fall back on, which was outsourced to labor at the margin, and until real jobs with decent wages, not service sector McJobs, are created domestically, there shall be no meaningful recovery and all else is an illusory perpetuation of the status quo, as in smoke and mirrors. And so it shall be...
We Nattered: The real picture? Dammit Jim, its not flat, its dead. The economy never recovered, outside of the "gasoline rebate checks", +$85M in Q2 GDP PCE spending accounting for +3.1% of the +3.7%, our economy is still contracting on the latest massive bubble deflation, just like the rest of the globe.
I recently picked apart the three pillars of past economic recoveries, auto sales, housing and credit market "growth, which was being hyped domestically, here..
Looked great on the surface, but upon further inspection under the sheets, a train wreck waiting to happen. Quite frankly, lending more money to people already buried in debt isn't really a good business model and never has been. And calling it a "recovery", is a public disservice. I prefer to take a jaundiced eye to this kind of jabberwocky.
The train wreck is exemplified in the longer term by real median household income declining 9% since 1998. According to the Feds own definition of weak economic conditions, as in the indexed core PCE annual change being under 2%... we have been wallowing in the mire since 1998.... Chart here
...with only three serial bubbles (dot.com, housing MBS, QEZIRP) to account for any "growth". Unlike a traditional "retain and reinvest" strategy, which would be "value creation", this bubbilicious "growth" seems to provide for a "value extraction" strategy, and redistribution of income up the pyramid. See here for further elucidation.
Bottom line: At the moment, global contractionary economic trajectory seems headed for not an explosion, but an implosion. Lacking a durable economic base to fall back on, which was outsourced to labor at the margin, and until real jobs with decent wages, not service sector McJobs, are created domestically, there shall be no meaningful recovery and all else is an illusory perpetuation of the status quo, as in smoke and mirrors. And so it shall be...
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