More Ides of March
Over at a financial forum...
StJL – "Going to have to climb over these 50 DMA to convince me! I am still thinking we are looking for a bottom. Would not surprise me to see these latest lows one more time and maybe get lower next time…. Just gut feeling based on the economic conditions. I don't see enough fuel for a long term rally. But I could be very wrong…"
Nattering: I concur.
P – "And what StJ said except I think we pop over without turning back."
Nattering: And that we could, and further… beware the Ides of March.
StJL – "Naybob – Do you concur that I could be very wrong?" The Nattering One mused: Since the market is not a reflection of the economy or reality, and irrational exuberance abounds, you could be. Value shoppers are nibbling, some areas are getting bids, there is short covering. Anyone who thinks with the commods and manufacturing goods side already in recession, that the rest of the economy will magically avoid recession, has a big "surprise" coming. It never has before, and it won't this time either. The list of indicators grows longer by the day with far too many to list.
The global recession in progress is impacting us, throw in a strong dollar (BTW last time it spiked, 2008). Outside of a recession you won't find a year in which both imports and exports are -5% Yoy as they are right now. Toss in Yoy dividend cuts +38%, +23% more than in 2008.
With everyone debauching in a world of shrinking trade, what advantage is to be gained? And why would profits respond? Leading to... why would one buy stocks at a premium then? This also leads to a lack of confidence in currencies, while equities and bonds go into the toilet, leading to gold and solid assets going ballistic P may be right, hyperinflation. All TBD as many things are possible.
In any event, today Europe, Japan, BRIC's, EM's, commodities exporters, call it what you want, global trade is shrinking vis economic contraction and you can slap all the lipstick you want on it, its still a pig or Ned Beatty in Deliverance, and the porch parties just getting started. SOOEY!!
With everyone debauching in a world of shrinking trade, what advantage is to be gained? And why would profits respond? Leading to... why would one buy stocks at a premium then? This also leads to a lack of confidence in currencies, while equities and bonds go into the toilet, leading to gold and solid assets going ballistic P may be right, hyperinflation. All TBD as many things are possible.
In any event, today Europe, Japan, BRIC's, EM's, commodities exporters, call it what you want, global trade is shrinking vis economic contraction and you can slap all the lipstick you want on it, its still a pig or Ned Beatty in Deliverance, and the porch parties just getting started. SOOEY!!
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