Beware The Ides of March

Over at a financial forum...

StJL - "Going to have to climb over these 50 DMA to convince me! I am still thinking we are looking for a bottom. Would not surprise me to see these latest lows one more time and maybe get lower next time.... Just gut feeling based on the economic conditions. I don't see enough fuel for a long term rally. But I could be very wrong…"

P - "What StJ said except I think we pop over without turning back."

And that we could. I just have this feeling that something is amiss. It could have something to do with a potential roll over of Chinese forward dollar swaps or some other central bank going negative?? With deepening global economic contraction, the only "good news" would be bad news, as in no impetus for rate increases. 

Last Wend I Nattered about my suspicion that silver might hit the $20-25 range and gold might hit the $1350 – $1415 range by no later than mid April.  P gave some sound advice on playing that angle and I mentioned we might see /ES (SP500 futures) resistance tests at 1930, if it passes then 1940, if it passes then perhaps at 1970. The past two days, we are knocking on 1930 -1940 door.
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I know my gold - silver targets are aggressive and I'm currently weighing the potential for more or less panic.  I'm just thinking in that nagging case of a resumption back to test the recent lows and beyond.  If equities support somehow gets spooked, the herd will run to bonds, gold and silver, while any FX reserve liquidation will kick ED (eurodollar) up, while holding USD down. My spider senses are tingling as if there has been a disturbance.   

Above note, Feb 17th downswing in Required Reserves, usually the largest seasonal downswing.  I had a feeling that it would hit 17%, and this year the largest % delta on record since Feb 2007, 5th largest all time at -17.16% just massive.

Back to that nagging suspicion, I suspect an inflection is going to occur between now and March 16.  Checking the calendar, this Friday GDP 2nd estimate should be +0.4% down from +0.7%, but thats "good news" for rates.  

The week of Mar 7 - 11, week prior to options expiration has a 3, 10 and 30 yr bond auction, lower liquidity unless the Fed pumps and there is a treasury paydown that week,  The week of expiration, the FOMC announcement is Wend March 16.  

I cannot put my finger on it now, but beware erratic investment vehicles and the Ides of March, then and now.  Out.