Market Soapbox 03/03, 03/06, 03/07/06
Resistance: DJIA 11170; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
Friday: "The media hyped bonds getting beat under speculation that the ECB will bump 25bps twice more to 3% by year end. Something else is afoot. Sniff, Sniff."
Bonds getting crushed. Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.72; 5 yr @ 4.74; 2yr @ 4.75; 6mo @ 4.77. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals. Over the last 5 weeks DJIA +240, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +330.
All major indices and sectors crushed for a second straight day. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all down BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down @ 551, XOI & crude down @ 61.40, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 3 ISM Services, Mich Sentiment; Mar 6 Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales; Mar 7 Q4 Productivity, Consumer Credit.
Mar 8 EIA Inventories, Options Unwind; Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The schizo herks and jerks which are getting bigger and more frequent are not a healthy sign. We patiently watch, tomorrow is D Day for the yield curve inversion and we await March 8th-10th."
From Friday "March 8 - 16th as well as April 14th - 21st should be inflection points for the market. The downside potential is substantial, careful observation and risk mitigation is necessary."
Friday we reiterated our contention that rates will go up far beyond anyones expectations and that the Fed will raise 4 more times to reach 5.5%.
From Breifing.com: "Interest rates are likely to head higher, and the market now foresees two - and possibly three - more impending hikes to the Fed funds rate."
So far, the realization of those fears have the market consolidating, NDX and SP500 have fallen through near term support, lets watch and see how long and far it falls.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
Friday: "The media hyped bonds getting beat under speculation that the ECB will bump 25bps twice more to 3% by year end. Something else is afoot. Sniff, Sniff."
Bonds getting crushed. Yield curve MAJOR INVERSION bonds down BIG with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.72; 5 yr @ 4.74; 2yr @ 4.75; 6mo @ 4.77. In a full tilt boogey, 2yr is above the 30 year since 02/09.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals. Over the last 5 weeks DJIA +240, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +330.
All major indices and sectors crushed for a second straight day. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all down BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down @ 551, XOI & crude down @ 61.40, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 3 ISM Services, Mich Sentiment; Mar 6 Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales; Mar 7 Q4 Productivity, Consumer Credit.
Mar 8 EIA Inventories, Options Unwind; Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Yesterday: "The schizo herks and jerks which are getting bigger and more frequent are not a healthy sign. We patiently watch, tomorrow is D Day for the yield curve inversion and we await March 8th-10th."
From Friday "March 8 - 16th as well as April 14th - 21st should be inflection points for the market. The downside potential is substantial, careful observation and risk mitigation is necessary."
Friday we reiterated our contention that rates will go up far beyond anyones expectations and that the Fed will raise 4 more times to reach 5.5%.
From Breifing.com: "Interest rates are likely to head higher, and the market now foresees two - and possibly three - more impending hikes to the Fed funds rate."
So far, the realization of those fears have the market consolidating, NDX and SP500 have fallen through near term support, lets watch and see how long and far it falls.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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