Market Soapbox 03/08/06
Resistance: DJIA 11170; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report. Factory Orders fell largely on a drop in aircraft orders.
The 2 yr note corrected to the downside and is now even with 30 yr and below the 10 year. The 10 year note is at a 20 month high and has exited inversion for the moment.
OPEC left production quotas unchanged, crude supplies rose 6.7M barrels vs est. 1.6M, the highest level of supply since May 1999, the price of oil slid 3% below $60.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.73; 5 yr @ 4.74; 2yr @ 4.71; 6mo @ 4.77. 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals.
4 straight days of selling then a late day bounce that produced a flat day DJIA +25 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week, DJIA -10, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +265, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +355.
DJTA, NDX, SOX & XAU down. DJUA up. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all up.
Airlines, Biotech & Retail up nicely. Gold Bugs pounded down.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down @ 548.4, XOI up & crude down @ 60.25, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Mar 14 Current Account, Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book; Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
Yesterday: "Interest rates are likely to head higher, and the market now foresees two - and possibly three - more impending hikes to the Fed funds rate."
"So far, the realization of those fears have the market consolidating, NDX and SP500 have fallen through near term support, lets watch and see how long and far it falls."
FYI PG crossed 61.80 several days back and then fell off its all time high. Google appears to be starting a 3 down heading for $300.
All major indices are near MAX PAIN excepting the DJIA. Gold, Oil and commodities equities continue their pullback.
Thursday it could go either way depending on the indirect bidder participation at the 10 year note auction which holds the key to market liquidity.
Friday's Non Farms is key, a large number above 210K will spur inflation fears and spark further sell off. A small number could stabilize the markets equilibrium.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report. Factory Orders fell largely on a drop in aircraft orders.
The 2 yr note corrected to the downside and is now even with 30 yr and below the 10 year. The 10 year note is at a 20 month high and has exited inversion for the moment.
OPEC left production quotas unchanged, crude supplies rose 6.7M barrels vs est. 1.6M, the highest level of supply since May 1999, the price of oil slid 3% below $60.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.73; 5 yr @ 4.74; 2yr @ 4.71; 6mo @ 4.77. 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals.
4 straight days of selling then a late day bounce that produced a flat day DJIA +25 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week, DJIA -10, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +265, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +355.
DJTA, NDX, SOX & XAU down. DJUA up. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 all up.
Airlines, Biotech & Retail up nicely. Gold Bugs pounded down.
Dollar down vs. Euro & Yen, XAU & gold down @ 548.4, XOI up & crude down @ 60.25, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 9 BOE announcement, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, 10 yr note auction; Mar 10 Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories.
Mar 14 Current Account, Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book; Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
Yesterday: "Interest rates are likely to head higher, and the market now foresees two - and possibly three - more impending hikes to the Fed funds rate."
"So far, the realization of those fears have the market consolidating, NDX and SP500 have fallen through near term support, lets watch and see how long and far it falls."
FYI PG crossed 61.80 several days back and then fell off its all time high. Google appears to be starting a 3 down heading for $300.
All major indices are near MAX PAIN excepting the DJIA. Gold, Oil and commodities equities continue their pullback.
Thursday it could go either way depending on the indirect bidder participation at the 10 year note auction which holds the key to market liquidity.
Friday's Non Farms is key, a large number above 210K will spur inflation fears and spark further sell off. A small number could stabilize the markets equilibrium.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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