Market Soapbox 03/09 & 03/10/06
Resistance: DJIA 11170; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
Non Farm Payrolls @ 243K vs est. 210K vs prior revised 170K. YOY wage growth at the highest level since September of 2001. Both pointing to higher inflation and interest rates. Treasury Budget a record -$119 Billion.
Risky borrowing is catching up with a number of homeowners across the U.S. Foreclosures rose 45% in January compared to a year ago; experts expect the pace to accelerate.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.75%; 10 yr @ 4.75; 5 yr @ 4.76; 2yr @ 4.73; 6mo @ 4.77. 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals. Wen a flat day DJIA +25 on lower volume with midlin internals. Thurs DJIA -33 on higher volume with ugly internals.
Friday DJIA +104 on lower volume with pretty internals. This week, DJIA +61, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +336, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +426.
DJTA, DJUA, NYSE, SP500, RUT, MID, XAU & XOI up nicely. SOX down, NDX weak. CAC, DAX, FTSE all up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up.
Gold bugs, Networking, Telecom, Oil, Pharma, Brokers, Transports, Utilities, Commodity, Cyclical, Healthcare & Banking all up nicely. Semis & Airlines down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU up & gold down @ 542.50, XOI up & crude down @ 59.96, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 14 Current Account, Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book;
Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
Wend: "All major indices are near MAX PAIN excepting the DJIA. Gold, Oil and commodities equities continue their pullback.
Thursday it could go either way depending on the indirect bidder participation at the 10 year note auction which holds the key to market liquidity.
Friday's Non Farms is key, a large number above 210K will spur inflation fears and spark further sell off. A small number could stabilize the markets equilibrium."
Thursday further pullback for commodities and equities. On Friday, Non Farms came in high but oil pulling back under $60 and the market having a media misread on "contained" inflation.
The bond market reacted accordingly sending the 10 year to 4.78% intraday. However, the stock market seems to have a false sense of security, which led to a broadbased bounce. Options expire on Friday, we sense more downside coming.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10900; SP500 1280; Nasdaq 2260; NDX 1665
In our top story tonight, we are scarce, duty calls, but we shall endeavour to report.
Non Farm Payrolls @ 243K vs est. 210K vs prior revised 170K. YOY wage growth at the highest level since September of 2001. Both pointing to higher inflation and interest rates. Treasury Budget a record -$119 Billion.
Risky borrowing is catching up with a number of homeowners across the U.S. Foreclosures rose 45% in January compared to a year ago; experts expect the pace to accelerate.
Yield curve INVERSION EXIT bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.75%; 10 yr @ 4.75; 5 yr @ 4.76; 2yr @ 4.73; 6mo @ 4.77. 2yr was above the 10 year 12/27 - 03/07; 2 above 30 year 02/09 - 03/07.
Recent DJIA History: 24 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 23 weeks +148, 22 weeks -281, 21 weeks -6, 20 weeks -77, (5 week loss -486). 19 weeks recovery begins +186, 18 weeks +128, 17 weeks +154, 16 weeks +79, 15 weeks +165, (5 week gain +712).
14 weeks -53, 13 weeks -99, 12 weeks +99, 11 weeks +8. 10 weeks -168, (5 week loss -213). 9 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 8 weeks +0, 7 weeks -292, 6 weeks +240, 5 weeks -113. (5 week gain +77). 4 weeks DJIA +125, 3 weeks DJIA +196, 2 weeks DJIA -52. Last week DJIA +6.
Mon DJIA -57 a consolidation on heavier volume with ugly internals. Tues DJIA +22 split tape day with horrible internals. Wen a flat day DJIA +25 on lower volume with midlin internals. Thurs DJIA -33 on higher volume with ugly internals.
Friday DJIA +104 on lower volume with pretty internals. This week, DJIA +61, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +336, over the last 23 weeks DJIA +426.
DJTA, DJUA, NYSE, SP500, RUT, MID, XAU & XOI up nicely. SOX down, NDX weak. CAC, DAX, FTSE all up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up.
Gold bugs, Networking, Telecom, Oil, Pharma, Brokers, Transports, Utilities, Commodity, Cyclical, Healthcare & Banking all up nicely. Semis & Airlines down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen, XAU up & gold down @ 542.50, XOI up & crude down @ 59.96, CRB commodities down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Mar 14 Current Account, Retail Sales, Business Inventories; Mar 15 Export & Import Prices, NY Empire State, Net Foreign Purchases, EIA Crude, Fed Beige Book;
Mar 16 Building Permits, Core CPI, CPI, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Mar 17 Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Mich Sentiment.
Wend: "All major indices are near MAX PAIN excepting the DJIA. Gold, Oil and commodities equities continue their pullback.
Thursday it could go either way depending on the indirect bidder participation at the 10 year note auction which holds the key to market liquidity.
Friday's Non Farms is key, a large number above 210K will spur inflation fears and spark further sell off. A small number could stabilize the markets equilibrium."
Thursday further pullback for commodities and equities. On Friday, Non Farms came in high but oil pulling back under $60 and the market having a media misread on "contained" inflation.
The bond market reacted accordingly sending the 10 year to 4.78% intraday. However, the stock market seems to have a false sense of security, which led to a broadbased bounce. Options expire on Friday, we sense more downside coming.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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