Market Observations 12/13/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Oil rising, the dollar rebounding as bonds (TNX, TYX) & gold pullback, stocks sideways since 11/15.
The 30 yr bond tested 115 and has come back to the 113 breakout level, it will test 115 again, break it and head for 117 as the dollar will break 82 to the downside.
The NDX & NASDAQ are still lagging. Observing a daily YTD chart, the market leading MID (May), RUT (May & 11/15) & XOI (Aug) have formed what appear to be very large double tops.
The DJIA, DJ COMP, OEX & AMEX (XMI) could be in the process of a small double top since 11/15.
SP500 1415 is a critical level to acheive 1435-1440, NDX 1828 is critical to get to 1861. The SP500 is currently range bound between 1407-1418.
Should the lagging NDX & NAZ break out to new highs, that would confirm the continuance of the upward trend to 1440. We are still suspicious of a fall to 1397-1400 MAX PAIN, before any run above 1415.
As for sustainability at higher levels i.e. 1440, compare Jan & Dec open short side interest on the SP500 to gauge how much short covering may or may not drive up the market in January.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
Oil rising, the dollar rebounding as bonds (TNX, TYX) & gold pullback, stocks sideways since 11/15.
The 30 yr bond tested 115 and has come back to the 113 breakout level, it will test 115 again, break it and head for 117 as the dollar will break 82 to the downside.
The NDX & NASDAQ are still lagging. Observing a daily YTD chart, the market leading MID (May), RUT (May & 11/15) & XOI (Aug) have formed what appear to be very large double tops.
The DJIA, DJ COMP, OEX & AMEX (XMI) could be in the process of a small double top since 11/15.
SP500 1415 is a critical level to acheive 1435-1440, NDX 1828 is critical to get to 1861. The SP500 is currently range bound between 1407-1418.
Should the lagging NDX & NAZ break out to new highs, that would confirm the continuance of the upward trend to 1440. We are still suspicious of a fall to 1397-1400 MAX PAIN, before any run above 1415.
As for sustainability at higher levels i.e. 1440, compare Jan & Dec open short side interest on the SP500 to gauge how much short covering may or may not drive up the market in January.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
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