Market Observations 12/18/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
29K hits since March 05, some mega blogmeisters get that in a day or week. Still we are glad that some people are regular in observing our rants & observations. As Fleck says, "often wrong, but never in doubt", we thank the faithful.
Oil rising ($63), the dollar rebounding (84) as bonds (30 yr 112) and gold ($615) continue their pullback, while stocks rise (SP500 1431). Bonds had a wicked bounce on FRI, as Gold & $ also had nice shakeout moves.
30 yr UP from 112.16 to 113.24 on the "flat" CPI inflation spin, and then right back DOWN to 112.21, when enquiring minds took a peak beneath the sheets at the ugly truth in the numbers.
In the near term, last weeks short covering surge should be replaced with year end window dressing. Fri & today some sideways consolidation. A pullback to 1415 would be nice to see before another spurt to 1440 later this week.
Watch the VIX, if it drops close to 9 or less; and the 30 yr bond, if it drops through 112 to 111, both are BIG RED flags which are starting to flap a in the wind just a bit.
A VIX drop would indicate a potential spiking top in the market. The 30 yr plunging in 111 would raise interest rates, choking off business and consumer lending that are fueling current consumption.
Current consumption may already be tailing off as witnessed by the downtrend in state witholding and sales tax receipts. See todays other post.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
29K hits since March 05, some mega blogmeisters get that in a day or week. Still we are glad that some people are regular in observing our rants & observations. As Fleck says, "often wrong, but never in doubt", we thank the faithful.
Oil rising ($63), the dollar rebounding (84) as bonds (30 yr 112) and gold ($615) continue their pullback, while stocks rise (SP500 1431). Bonds had a wicked bounce on FRI, as Gold & $ also had nice shakeout moves.
30 yr UP from 112.16 to 113.24 on the "flat" CPI inflation spin, and then right back DOWN to 112.21, when enquiring minds took a peak beneath the sheets at the ugly truth in the numbers.
In the near term, last weeks short covering surge should be replaced with year end window dressing. Fri & today some sideways consolidation. A pullback to 1415 would be nice to see before another spurt to 1440 later this week.
Watch the VIX, if it drops close to 9 or less; and the 30 yr bond, if it drops through 112 to 111, both are BIG RED flags which are starting to flap a in the wind just a bit.
A VIX drop would indicate a potential spiking top in the market. The 30 yr plunging in 111 would raise interest rates, choking off business and consumer lending that are fueling current consumption.
Current consumption may already be tailing off as witnessed by the downtrend in state witholding and sales tax receipts. See todays other post.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
Comments
Back at ya! ;)