Market Observations 12/22/06
In our top story tonight, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is STILL dead and someone else has taken his place.
Micron Technology & Research In Motion met expectations after the bell. No help as the NDX had its 5th straight down day and longest losing streak in 4 months.
$ at 8 week high vs Yen 118.81, bonds down 10 yr yield rising to 4.62; 30 yr @ 4.75, crude hovering about $63, natural gas got punked, down to 6.60, gold rising back to $623 level
Since Fri some decent consolidation. DJIA down to 12350 support, DJCOMP 5 out of 6 days down, slicing through 4120 support.
Two pullbacks to SP500 1415 and a touch at 1410 might just give enough energy to spurt to 1440 next week.
Bad moon risin? DJTA sliced through and clinging to 100DMA 4545, it violated 200DMA 4600 in the last two days. DJIA sitting on 25 DMA 12320, XAU has cut through all support and is sitting on 100DMA 137.
XOI falling from 25 to 50 DMA 1170. SP500 sitting on 25 DMA at 1410, next support level 1405. RUT 777 & MID 800 sitting on critical 50 DMA, large dropoff after this level.
NAZ sittin on 50DMA 2405, NDX hanging from 50 DMA 1762, large dropoffs after this level. SOXX sliced through 50 DMA, sitting on 200DMA at 464.
Watch NAZ 2405, NDX 1760 & SOXX 465, any rapid descent through this level would indicate a potential tech collapse.
On a broader note, any rapid descent through SP500 50DMA support 1395-1390 on higher volume should also be viewed as a very large flashing red exit sign, 1377, 1350, 1315 & 1297 await below.
We still see 1440, NDX 1860 and RUT 832 as possible, although the potential that we have already topped, and the worst is yet to come after New Year looms large.
At least the conviction behind this pullback is minimal at this point, as volume has been lower and the VIX has ticked up to 10.5-11 range.
The market suddenly seems to be more occupied with bad micro and macro news (slowing economy, manufacturing and housing) rather than the Feds seemingly "benign" advertised inflation rate.
Last weeks short covering surge could be replaced with year end window dressing or have investors already given the order to pull the plug on the Santa rally before the New Year?
Perhaps a bounce on Tues and rally up till year end? Or a continuation of the last 5 days pullback with heavy elephant herd volume coming after New Year?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
Micron Technology & Research In Motion met expectations after the bell. No help as the NDX had its 5th straight down day and longest losing streak in 4 months.
$ at 8 week high vs Yen 118.81, bonds down 10 yr yield rising to 4.62; 30 yr @ 4.75, crude hovering about $63, natural gas got punked, down to 6.60, gold rising back to $623 level
Since Fri some decent consolidation. DJIA down to 12350 support, DJCOMP 5 out of 6 days down, slicing through 4120 support.
Two pullbacks to SP500 1415 and a touch at 1410 might just give enough energy to spurt to 1440 next week.
Bad moon risin? DJTA sliced through and clinging to 100DMA 4545, it violated 200DMA 4600 in the last two days. DJIA sitting on 25 DMA 12320, XAU has cut through all support and is sitting on 100DMA 137.
XOI falling from 25 to 50 DMA 1170. SP500 sitting on 25 DMA at 1410, next support level 1405. RUT 777 & MID 800 sitting on critical 50 DMA, large dropoff after this level.
NAZ sittin on 50DMA 2405, NDX hanging from 50 DMA 1762, large dropoffs after this level. SOXX sliced through 50 DMA, sitting on 200DMA at 464.
Watch NAZ 2405, NDX 1760 & SOXX 465, any rapid descent through this level would indicate a potential tech collapse.
On a broader note, any rapid descent through SP500 50DMA support 1395-1390 on higher volume should also be viewed as a very large flashing red exit sign, 1377, 1350, 1315 & 1297 await below.
We still see 1440, NDX 1860 and RUT 832 as possible, although the potential that we have already topped, and the worst is yet to come after New Year looms large.
At least the conviction behind this pullback is minimal at this point, as volume has been lower and the VIX has ticked up to 10.5-11 range.
The market suddenly seems to be more occupied with bad micro and macro news (slowing economy, manufacturing and housing) rather than the Feds seemingly "benign" advertised inflation rate.
Last weeks short covering surge could be replaced with year end window dressing or have investors already given the order to pull the plug on the Santa rally before the New Year?
Perhaps a bounce on Tues and rally up till year end? Or a continuation of the last 5 days pullback with heavy elephant herd volume coming after New Year?
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
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