Market Observations 01/25/07
In our top story tonight, the former leader of Iraq, Sadamm Hussein, is STILL dead.
The Dollar waving up & down. Watch the Fed's open market operations and the dollar as liquidity barometers for the market.
Gold knocking on $655, Bonds still getting punked as the 10 yr fell through 4.81% to 4.87% and could be headed for over 5%.
After this recent dose of bond vigilante reality, we are doing an aboutface and heading back into the "rates could rise much farther & faster than anyone expects" camp.
Another aboutface.... Oil under $50, something I thought we would never see again in our lifetime... Crude oil going under $50 then Nigerian rebels and "peak" oil shills were left on the bench by the oil ogliopoly.
A single call got the biggest shill of all, Dubya, to boost the Strategic Reserves, bouncing crude to $55.
We suspect crude is in a dead cat bounce, as housing continues to plunge this Spring & economic news gets worse, while interest rates increase & reserves build, oil could fall through $49 to $45 and even lower.
Tech oscillating sideways, the NDX off its 75 DMA at 1731 bouncing to a multi year high at 1847, then falling through 50 DMA 1771, and bouncing again to 1810.
Yesterday, the SP500 slammed its head into multi year high 1440, and fell very quickly today back to 1426 as of 2:15 EST, with the DJIA dropping over 100 pts.
VIX dropping to single digits 9.88 yesterday, then jumping today to 10.58, not a good sign.
At this level, one of two things will occur, sideways action between 1425-1435 to store up energy a push up to 1500-1520.
Or, should the SP500 suffer further rapid breakdown, closing below 1420 for 2 straight days, it might be time to get out the Bermuda shorts as 1405, 1375 & 1325 await.
In the long term, a +100 point consolidation 1440 to 1325 would be healthy for the market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us.
Just my opinion, often wrong, but never in doubt, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
The Dollar waving up & down. Watch the Fed's open market operations and the dollar as liquidity barometers for the market.
Gold knocking on $655, Bonds still getting punked as the 10 yr fell through 4.81% to 4.87% and could be headed for over 5%.
After this recent dose of bond vigilante reality, we are doing an aboutface and heading back into the "rates could rise much farther & faster than anyone expects" camp.
Another aboutface.... Oil under $50, something I thought we would never see again in our lifetime... Crude oil going under $50 then Nigerian rebels and "peak" oil shills were left on the bench by the oil ogliopoly.
A single call got the biggest shill of all, Dubya, to boost the Strategic Reserves, bouncing crude to $55.
We suspect crude is in a dead cat bounce, as housing continues to plunge this Spring & economic news gets worse, while interest rates increase & reserves build, oil could fall through $49 to $45 and even lower.
Tech oscillating sideways, the NDX off its 75 DMA at 1731 bouncing to a multi year high at 1847, then falling through 50 DMA 1771, and bouncing again to 1810.
Yesterday, the SP500 slammed its head into multi year high 1440, and fell very quickly today back to 1426 as of 2:15 EST, with the DJIA dropping over 100 pts.
VIX dropping to single digits 9.88 yesterday, then jumping today to 10.58, not a good sign.
At this level, one of two things will occur, sideways action between 1425-1435 to store up energy a push up to 1500-1520.
Or, should the SP500 suffer further rapid breakdown, closing below 1420 for 2 straight days, it might be time to get out the Bermuda shorts as 1405, 1375 & 1325 await.
In the long term, a +100 point consolidation 1440 to 1325 would be healthy for the market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us.
Just my opinion, often wrong, but never in doubt, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!
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