NFL Division Playoffs SAT
FYI, since the NFL introduced its current playoff format in 1990, the team coming off a bye holds a 28-4 record SU and is a solid 21-10-1 ATS. Last week a solid 3-1 ATS & SU.
IND(+4)@BAL: IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp. DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp. Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500
BAL OFF Total #17 317, Rush #25 102.3, Pass #11 214.7, Sacks #2 17, RZ% #28 .423, Eff. #22 4.99 ypp. DEF Total #1 264.1, Rush D #2 75.9, Pass D #6 188.2, Sacks #2 60, TO diff #1 +17, RZD #1 .333, Eff. #1 4.51 ypp. Strength: of Victory .447; of Schedule .461
Key #1: Raven's anemic ground game #22 11 TD's, #24 6 runs of 20 yds+, #25 86 1st downs, #31 avg. 3.4 yards per carry. Colts #32 rush D allowing 165 rush ypg, away 199 ypg! Last 3 road games 262 ypg & 6.6 ypc!! But, last 3 games cut in half to only 128 ypg!
If the improving Colts run D can contain the weak Raven run as they did KC, they can make the Ravens one dimensional and turn their attention to defending the pass.
Key #2: Something has to give, Colt's #2 red zone effic vs Raven red zone D #1, only 33 possessions allowed inside the 20. However, of late in the RZ it seems the Colts hold the upper hand on both sides.
Last 3 Home & Away: Raven RZ D .500 vs Colt RZ O .714. Last 3 home games, Ravens RZ O a pathetic .333. Last 3 games, Raven RZ D .600 vs Colt RZ O .600; Colt RZ D .556 vs Raven RZ O .400.
Key #3: IND 4-4 away, losers of 4 straight on the road, but they started 4-0 on the road vs quality teams, NYG, NYJ, DEN & NE. Divisional round 1-3 ATS, the lone victory 38-31 as a 3 pt dog in 2004 at KC.
BAL home 7-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, but vs AFC South 0-6 ATS, and in their last 3 vs IND 0-3 SU & ATS. Vs teams that finished with a winning record BAL 3-1, IND 6-1
Last year, IND 24 @ BAL 7, same teams except QB McNair. Last week, IND rush 188 yds on 40 carries, QB Manning a poor performance with 3 ints, what are the odds of a repeat?
Remember, sometimes the best defense is a great offense. And NO ONE expects the Colts to win vs. the Raven defense. Yet, the line is only 4 points??
What do the oddsmakers know? Clues lie in the Box Score's of the CAR@BAL & both CIN-BAL games, 2 of which the Ravens lost.
The Ravens benefit from a weak schedule while the Colts played one of toughest. The ex-Baltimore Colts return to Baltimore to play the ex-Browns, so the 12th man will be out in force for this one.
If QB Manning lays another egg with 2 or 3 ints, spotting the Ravens an early lead and forcing the Colts to abandon the run game, this will be a very ugly one sided affair.
If the Colts take the red zone advantage on both sides of the ball, bring their run D of the last 3 games, pressure McNair into mistakes and keep the turnover ratio even, they just might shock the world.
Our pick going out on a limb, IND +4 and to WIN.
PHI(+5)@NO: PHI OFF Total #2 381.4, Rush #11 124, Pass #3 257.4, Sacks #9 28, RZ% #10 .565, Eff. #1 6.18 ypp. DEF Total #15 328.1, Rush D #26 136.4, Pass D #9 191.7, Sacks #10 40, TO diff #9 +5, RZD #12 .488, Eff. #11 4.98 ypp. Strength: of Victory .450; of Schedule .477
NO OFF Total #1 391.5, Rush #19 110.1, Pass #1 281.4, Sacks #4 23, RZ% #11 .547, Eff. #3 5.83 ypp. DEF Total #11 307.3, Rush D #23 128.9, Pass D #3 178.4, Sacks #13 38, TO diff #22 -4, RZD #22 .537, Eff. #19 5.29 ypp. Strength: of Victory .425; of Schedule .461
Somethings gotta give. Last 3 home & away, Saints red zone efficiency .727 vs Eagles RZ D .300 & Eagles RZ eff. .750 vs Saints RZ D .286.
Key #1: Last 3 games, PHI red zone effic .375 vs NO RZ D .333. NO red zone effic .700 vs PHI RZ D .556. In the last 3 games, the Saints are strong in the red zone at both ends, the Eagles are not.
Can the Saints force the Eagles to pass? Eagles #11 rush attack 127 ypg & 4.9 ypc, picking up last 3 away, 154 ypg & 4.9 ypc. Saints #23 rush D 129 ypg & 4.9 ypc picking up last 3 at home, 108 ypg & 4.1 ypc.
Key #2: Eagles #26 run D allowing 159 ypg & 5.3 ypc has stiffened last 3 away 127 ypg & 4.7 ypc. Saints # 19 rush avg 110 ypg, last 3 at home 107 ypg. The Eagles should be able to force the Saints into passing.
Key #3: Eagles #9 pass D, last 3 away, 197 ypg, last 3 163 ypg. Saints #1 pass attack avg 281 ypg, last 3 at home falling to 206 ypg, last 3 falling to 186 ypg.
Both teams defenses have improved dramatically in the last 4 games, while the Saints passing game has dropped off 100 ypg with no pickup in the ground game.
Clues on how to stop the Saints pass attack can be found in the WAS 16 @NO 10 box score & game film. Eagles all pro CB Sheppard will not play.
PHI 6 straight wins, 3 straight wins away, in Jan 2-6 ATS, vs NFC 8-4 ATS, as a dog 4-1 ATS. NO at home 7-15 ATS, 4-4 SU, as a favorite 4-9 ATS, vs NFC 9-3 ATS. 10/15 PHI 24 @ NO 27, Saints winning on a last second FG.
Should the Eagles continue to struggle in the red zone, and play like they did vs Gmen, Bree's Saints will jump all over them and this game will be over by the half.
If the Eagles can dominate on the ground & force the Saints into throwing (which is what WAS did), they could blitz Bree's into mistakes and would have a puncher's chance at winning ugly in the Big Easy.
Our pick PHI +5 and to WIN.
IND(+4)@BAL: IND OFF Total #3 379.4, Rush #18 110.1, Pass #2 269.2, Sacks #1 15, RZ% #2 .661, Eff. #2 6.00 ypp. DEF Total #21 332.2, Rush D #32 173, Pass D #2 159.2, Sacks #30 25, TO diff #7 +7, RZD #31 .588, Eff. #29 5.54 ypp. Strength: of Victory .505; of Schedule .500
BAL OFF Total #17 317, Rush #25 102.3, Pass #11 214.7, Sacks #2 17, RZ% #28 .423, Eff. #22 4.99 ypp. DEF Total #1 264.1, Rush D #2 75.9, Pass D #6 188.2, Sacks #2 60, TO diff #1 +17, RZD #1 .333, Eff. #1 4.51 ypp. Strength: of Victory .447; of Schedule .461
Key #1: Raven's anemic ground game #22 11 TD's, #24 6 runs of 20 yds+, #25 86 1st downs, #31 avg. 3.4 yards per carry. Colts #32 rush D allowing 165 rush ypg, away 199 ypg! Last 3 road games 262 ypg & 6.6 ypc!! But, last 3 games cut in half to only 128 ypg!
If the improving Colts run D can contain the weak Raven run as they did KC, they can make the Ravens one dimensional and turn their attention to defending the pass.
Key #2: Something has to give, Colt's #2 red zone effic vs Raven red zone D #1, only 33 possessions allowed inside the 20. However, of late in the RZ it seems the Colts hold the upper hand on both sides.
Last 3 Home & Away: Raven RZ D .500 vs Colt RZ O .714. Last 3 home games, Ravens RZ O a pathetic .333. Last 3 games, Raven RZ D .600 vs Colt RZ O .600; Colt RZ D .556 vs Raven RZ O .400.
Key #3: IND 4-4 away, losers of 4 straight on the road, but they started 4-0 on the road vs quality teams, NYG, NYJ, DEN & NE. Divisional round 1-3 ATS, the lone victory 38-31 as a 3 pt dog in 2004 at KC.
BAL home 7-1 SU, 8-2 ATS, but vs AFC South 0-6 ATS, and in their last 3 vs IND 0-3 SU & ATS. Vs teams that finished with a winning record BAL 3-1, IND 6-1
Last year, IND 24 @ BAL 7, same teams except QB McNair. Last week, IND rush 188 yds on 40 carries, QB Manning a poor performance with 3 ints, what are the odds of a repeat?
Remember, sometimes the best defense is a great offense. And NO ONE expects the Colts to win vs. the Raven defense. Yet, the line is only 4 points??
What do the oddsmakers know? Clues lie in the Box Score's of the CAR@BAL & both CIN-BAL games, 2 of which the Ravens lost.
The Ravens benefit from a weak schedule while the Colts played one of toughest. The ex-Baltimore Colts return to Baltimore to play the ex-Browns, so the 12th man will be out in force for this one.
If QB Manning lays another egg with 2 or 3 ints, spotting the Ravens an early lead and forcing the Colts to abandon the run game, this will be a very ugly one sided affair.
If the Colts take the red zone advantage on both sides of the ball, bring their run D of the last 3 games, pressure McNair into mistakes and keep the turnover ratio even, they just might shock the world.
Our pick going out on a limb, IND +4 and to WIN.
PHI(+5)@NO: PHI OFF Total #2 381.4, Rush #11 124, Pass #3 257.4, Sacks #9 28, RZ% #10 .565, Eff. #1 6.18 ypp. DEF Total #15 328.1, Rush D #26 136.4, Pass D #9 191.7, Sacks #10 40, TO diff #9 +5, RZD #12 .488, Eff. #11 4.98 ypp. Strength: of Victory .450; of Schedule .477
NO OFF Total #1 391.5, Rush #19 110.1, Pass #1 281.4, Sacks #4 23, RZ% #11 .547, Eff. #3 5.83 ypp. DEF Total #11 307.3, Rush D #23 128.9, Pass D #3 178.4, Sacks #13 38, TO diff #22 -4, RZD #22 .537, Eff. #19 5.29 ypp. Strength: of Victory .425; of Schedule .461
Somethings gotta give. Last 3 home & away, Saints red zone efficiency .727 vs Eagles RZ D .300 & Eagles RZ eff. .750 vs Saints RZ D .286.
Key #1: Last 3 games, PHI red zone effic .375 vs NO RZ D .333. NO red zone effic .700 vs PHI RZ D .556. In the last 3 games, the Saints are strong in the red zone at both ends, the Eagles are not.
Can the Saints force the Eagles to pass? Eagles #11 rush attack 127 ypg & 4.9 ypc, picking up last 3 away, 154 ypg & 4.9 ypc. Saints #23 rush D 129 ypg & 4.9 ypc picking up last 3 at home, 108 ypg & 4.1 ypc.
Key #2: Eagles #26 run D allowing 159 ypg & 5.3 ypc has stiffened last 3 away 127 ypg & 4.7 ypc. Saints # 19 rush avg 110 ypg, last 3 at home 107 ypg. The Eagles should be able to force the Saints into passing.
Key #3: Eagles #9 pass D, last 3 away, 197 ypg, last 3 163 ypg. Saints #1 pass attack avg 281 ypg, last 3 at home falling to 206 ypg, last 3 falling to 186 ypg.
Both teams defenses have improved dramatically in the last 4 games, while the Saints passing game has dropped off 100 ypg with no pickup in the ground game.
Clues on how to stop the Saints pass attack can be found in the WAS 16 @NO 10 box score & game film. Eagles all pro CB Sheppard will not play.
PHI 6 straight wins, 3 straight wins away, in Jan 2-6 ATS, vs NFC 8-4 ATS, as a dog 4-1 ATS. NO at home 7-15 ATS, 4-4 SU, as a favorite 4-9 ATS, vs NFC 9-3 ATS. 10/15 PHI 24 @ NO 27, Saints winning on a last second FG.
Should the Eagles continue to struggle in the red zone, and play like they did vs Gmen, Bree's Saints will jump all over them and this game will be over by the half.
If the Eagles can dominate on the ground & force the Saints into throwing (which is what WAS did), they could blitz Bree's into mistakes and would have a puncher's chance at winning ugly in the Big Easy.
Our pick PHI +5 and to WIN.
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