NFL Division Playoffs SUN
SEA@CHI(-9.5): SEA OFF Total #19 311.1, Rush #14 120.2, Pass #20 190.9, Sacks #28 49, RZ% #14 .524, Eff. #27 4.76 ypp. DEF Total #19 330.3, Rush D #22 126.8, Pass D #16 203.5, Sacks #6 41, TO diff #27 -8, RZD #28 .568, Eff. #24 5.36 ypp. Strength: of Victory .382; of Schedule .452
CHI OFF Total #15 324.9, Rush #15 119.9, Pass #14 205.1, Sacks #7 25, RZ% #18 .480, Eff. #21 4.99 ypp. DEF Total #5 294.1, Rush D #6 99.4, Pass D #11 194.8, Sacks #8 40, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #9 .475, Eff. #2 4.60 ypp. Strength: of Victory .404; of Schedule .430
Key #1: SEA O-line allowing 49 sacks, resulting in 22 ints, a -8 turnover ratio and red zone failure, Squak secondary when healthy, only 12 ints this year. Da Bears can pressure the Squaks into mistakes.
Key #2: But can they with a defense in decline?? CHI #11 pass D 194 ypg, at home 180 ypg. Since all pro DT Tommie Harris went down, in the last 3 games allowing 278 ypg passing. CHI D allowing 295 ypg & 15.9 ppg, last 3 at home 360 ypg & 23.3 ppg, last 3 games 352 ypg & 26 ppg.
Key #3: SEA #19 D giving up 330 ypg & 21 pts, last 3 games 303 ypg & 15.7 pts. As QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander got their legs back, the offense stayed on the field longer, keeping the defense off the field.
SEA on the road 2-8-1 ATS, vs NFC 3-9-1 ATS , vs NFC North 0-4 ATS. CHI playoffs 1-4 ATS, after bye 1-4 ATS. Earlier this year SEA 6@ CHI 37, the Squaks worst loss in 9 years. SEA has not won a road playoff game since 1983.
Da Bears offense has been erratic and turnover prone. It depends on which QB Grossman shows up, the real Rex or T-Rex? How will he perform vs an improving Squak D?
On the other side, Da Bear defense has taken a slide since Tommie Harris went down, allowing 100 more passing yds & 10 more pts per game.
However, Vasher & Tillman both return healthy to the secondary for the 1st time since Dec 3rd. In their 4 game absence, Da Bears D giving up 105 pts, 1229 passing yds, 10 TD's & taking only 3 ints.
The Squaks are a weak opponent that barely crawled by the Cowboys at home with 3 startings DB's out. If the real Rex shows up (7 games rated 100+), he should be able to pick the decimated Squak secondary apart.
This would take the pressure off the weakened defense and Da Bears should have no problems. If T-rex shows up (5 games rated under 37) , its another early playoff exit.
Our pick CHI -9.5 and to WIN
NE@SD(-5): NE OFF Total #11 335.6, Rush #12 123.1, Pass #12 212.5, Sacks #10 29, RZ% #5 .600, Eff. #17 5.09 ypp. DEF Total #6 294.4, Rush D #5 94.2, Pass D #12 200.2, Sacks #5 44, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #2 .343, Eff. #10 4.96 ypp. Strength: of Victory .469; of Schedule .496
SD OFF Total #4 365, Rush #2 161.1, Pass #16 203.9. Sacks #8 28, RZ% #1 .677, Eff. #4 5.75 ypp. DEF Total #10 301.6, Rush D #7 100.8, Pass D #13 200.8, Sacks #1 61, TO diff #3 +13, RZD #29 .574, Eff. #7 4.90 ypp . Strength: of Victory .424; of Schedule .457
NE 11-5-2 ATS in playoffs, Belichik 12-2 in playoffs, QB Brady 11-1 in playoffs, NE 7-1 SU & ATS on road. SD after bye 5-2 ATS, at home 8-0 SU, Schottenheimer 5-12 in playoffs. Vs Teams that finished with a winning record NE 3-3; SD 4-2
Last year in Beantown with Drew Brees at QB, the Bolts 41, the Pats 17 with a 40 yd TD int ret to accent the whippin, ending NE's 21 game home win streak and handing the Pats their worst loss in 41 games. Bolts rush 183 vs 73, TOP 37 vs 23, .750 red zone effic vs Pats .333
Key #1: SD #16 Pass attack 203 ypg, at home last 3 192 ypg, last 3 games 159 ypg. QB Rivers is having problems as defensive coordinators figured him out. What will Belichik have in store?
Key #2: SD #2 ground attack 168 ypg & 4.9 ypc, last 3 200 ypg & 5.8 ypc. The running game picked up the slack for Rivers. Can LT carry the load vs the Pats run D?
Key #3: NE #5 rushing D, away games 87 ypg & 3.8 ypc, last 3 away 136 ypg & 5.3, last 3 116 ypg & 5.5 ypc. Their run defense is giving it up in the last 3 road games, not good going against LT!
Key #4: SD #7 rushing D, at 93 ypg & 4.1 ypc, last 3 games 116 ypg & 4.9 ypc. NE #12 rush attack 128 ypg & 4.0 ypc, last 3 148 ypg, & 4.5 ypc. This bodes well for the Pats ability to run the ball and control the clock vs the Bolts.
Inside the 20, the Bolts are #1 scoring 95.2% of the time. Pats red zone D #2, only 35 possessions allowed inside the 20. Somethings gotta give and maybe it will.
Key #5: Bolts #29 red zone D .574. Last 3 home & away, NE RZ effic. .571 vs SD RZ D .333, SD RZ effic .571 vs NE RZ D .222. But, in the last 3 games, NE RZ effic .538 vs SD RZ D .375, SD RZ effic .429 vs NE RZ D .125!!!!
The Bolts are riding a 10 game winning streak, and their red zone D has improved. But in the last 3 games, they are struggling in the air, red zone and giving it up on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Pats riding a 4 game win streak, are running better and have kicked their red zone D up a notch. However, due to their blitzing ways, they are giving it up on the ground as well, and that is the Bolts forte.
The Bolts should be able to run as usual, but will they finish in the red zone? If they can get out to an early lead, this will force the Pats to throw. Thats when Steroid Shawn & his Merrimen #1 with 61 sacks, tee off on Brady and a Bolt blow out ensue's
If the Pats red zone D bends but doesn't break, Brady will have the luxury of a running game and matching the Bolts tit for tat. In that case, this game would be an epic battle which would go down to the wire and perhaps OT.
Our pick SD -5 and to WIN.
CHI OFF Total #15 324.9, Rush #15 119.9, Pass #14 205.1, Sacks #7 25, RZ% #18 .480, Eff. #21 4.99 ypp. DEF Total #5 294.1, Rush D #6 99.4, Pass D #11 194.8, Sacks #8 40, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #9 .475, Eff. #2 4.60 ypp. Strength: of Victory .404; of Schedule .430
Key #1: SEA O-line allowing 49 sacks, resulting in 22 ints, a -8 turnover ratio and red zone failure, Squak secondary when healthy, only 12 ints this year. Da Bears can pressure the Squaks into mistakes.
Key #2: But can they with a defense in decline?? CHI #11 pass D 194 ypg, at home 180 ypg. Since all pro DT Tommie Harris went down, in the last 3 games allowing 278 ypg passing. CHI D allowing 295 ypg & 15.9 ppg, last 3 at home 360 ypg & 23.3 ppg, last 3 games 352 ypg & 26 ppg.
Key #3: SEA #19 D giving up 330 ypg & 21 pts, last 3 games 303 ypg & 15.7 pts. As QB Hasselbeck and RB Alexander got their legs back, the offense stayed on the field longer, keeping the defense off the field.
SEA on the road 2-8-1 ATS, vs NFC 3-9-1 ATS , vs NFC North 0-4 ATS. CHI playoffs 1-4 ATS, after bye 1-4 ATS. Earlier this year SEA 6@ CHI 37, the Squaks worst loss in 9 years. SEA has not won a road playoff game since 1983.
Da Bears offense has been erratic and turnover prone. It depends on which QB Grossman shows up, the real Rex or T-Rex? How will he perform vs an improving Squak D?
On the other side, Da Bear defense has taken a slide since Tommie Harris went down, allowing 100 more passing yds & 10 more pts per game.
However, Vasher & Tillman both return healthy to the secondary for the 1st time since Dec 3rd. In their 4 game absence, Da Bears D giving up 105 pts, 1229 passing yds, 10 TD's & taking only 3 ints.
The Squaks are a weak opponent that barely crawled by the Cowboys at home with 3 startings DB's out. If the real Rex shows up (7 games rated 100+), he should be able to pick the decimated Squak secondary apart.
This would take the pressure off the weakened defense and Da Bears should have no problems. If T-rex shows up (5 games rated under 37) , its another early playoff exit.
Our pick CHI -9.5 and to WIN
NE@SD(-5): NE OFF Total #11 335.6, Rush #12 123.1, Pass #12 212.5, Sacks #10 29, RZ% #5 .600, Eff. #17 5.09 ypp. DEF Total #6 294.4, Rush D #5 94.2, Pass D #12 200.2, Sacks #5 44, TO diff #4 +8, RZD #2 .343, Eff. #10 4.96 ypp. Strength: of Victory .469; of Schedule .496
SD OFF Total #4 365, Rush #2 161.1, Pass #16 203.9. Sacks #8 28, RZ% #1 .677, Eff. #4 5.75 ypp. DEF Total #10 301.6, Rush D #7 100.8, Pass D #13 200.8, Sacks #1 61, TO diff #3 +13, RZD #29 .574, Eff. #7 4.90 ypp . Strength: of Victory .424; of Schedule .457
NE 11-5-2 ATS in playoffs, Belichik 12-2 in playoffs, QB Brady 11-1 in playoffs, NE 7-1 SU & ATS on road. SD after bye 5-2 ATS, at home 8-0 SU, Schottenheimer 5-12 in playoffs. Vs Teams that finished with a winning record NE 3-3; SD 4-2
Last year in Beantown with Drew Brees at QB, the Bolts 41, the Pats 17 with a 40 yd TD int ret to accent the whippin, ending NE's 21 game home win streak and handing the Pats their worst loss in 41 games. Bolts rush 183 vs 73, TOP 37 vs 23, .750 red zone effic vs Pats .333
Key #1: SD #16 Pass attack 203 ypg, at home last 3 192 ypg, last 3 games 159 ypg. QB Rivers is having problems as defensive coordinators figured him out. What will Belichik have in store?
Key #2: SD #2 ground attack 168 ypg & 4.9 ypc, last 3 200 ypg & 5.8 ypc. The running game picked up the slack for Rivers. Can LT carry the load vs the Pats run D?
Key #3: NE #5 rushing D, away games 87 ypg & 3.8 ypc, last 3 away 136 ypg & 5.3, last 3 116 ypg & 5.5 ypc. Their run defense is giving it up in the last 3 road games, not good going against LT!
Key #4: SD #7 rushing D, at 93 ypg & 4.1 ypc, last 3 games 116 ypg & 4.9 ypc. NE #12 rush attack 128 ypg & 4.0 ypc, last 3 148 ypg, & 4.5 ypc. This bodes well for the Pats ability to run the ball and control the clock vs the Bolts.
Inside the 20, the Bolts are #1 scoring 95.2% of the time. Pats red zone D #2, only 35 possessions allowed inside the 20. Somethings gotta give and maybe it will.
Key #5: Bolts #29 red zone D .574. Last 3 home & away, NE RZ effic. .571 vs SD RZ D .333, SD RZ effic .571 vs NE RZ D .222. But, in the last 3 games, NE RZ effic .538 vs SD RZ D .375, SD RZ effic .429 vs NE RZ D .125!!!!
The Bolts are riding a 10 game winning streak, and their red zone D has improved. But in the last 3 games, they are struggling in the air, red zone and giving it up on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Pats riding a 4 game win streak, are running better and have kicked their red zone D up a notch. However, due to their blitzing ways, they are giving it up on the ground as well, and that is the Bolts forte.
The Bolts should be able to run as usual, but will they finish in the red zone? If they can get out to an early lead, this will force the Pats to throw. Thats when Steroid Shawn & his Merrimen #1 with 61 sacks, tee off on Brady and a Bolt blow out ensue's
If the Pats red zone D bends but doesn't break, Brady will have the luxury of a running game and matching the Bolts tit for tat. In that case, this game would be an epic battle which would go down to the wire and perhaps OT.
Our pick SD -5 and to WIN.
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