Economic Reports 05/24/07
Summary: Unemployment worsens... Durable orders slowing and capital goods ex aircraft negative YTD.... New home prices plunge driving sales of sub $150K homes...
Initial Claims 05/19 311K vs prior 297K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 4K. 4 week MA -3.5K to 302.75K. Continuing claims +58K to 2.53M; 4 week MA -14.75K to 2.51M
Durable Orders Apr +0.6% vs prior +5% Full Report
Inside the number: Mar revised up from 4.3 to 5%. Good news... clearing out inventory or channel stuffing??
Durable goods shipments +1.9% vs prior +1.3%, 50% of the gain coming from semiconductors +46%.
Bad news... orders are decelerating.... sequentially ex transportation new orders flat +1.5%; YTD -0.4%. Ex defense new orders +0.6% vs prior vs +5.2%.
Worse yet... machinery orders -1.7% vs prior +5.3%; transportation orders -1.3% vs prior +13.6%.
YTD motor vehicles -6.1% electronics (ex semis) orders -0.1% vs prior -1.4%.
Core capital goods shipments +1.2% vs prior +4.4%; however, YTD capital goods orders excluding aircraft -1.3%
New Home Sales Apr 981K vs prior 858K Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... sales up 16%, as sales under 150K doubled. Inventory -1.5% to 538K, and six month MA up for the 1st time since Oct 2005 at 930K.
Bad news... high end homes taking the hit as median price plunged 10.9%, largest drop since 1970 - 37 years.
Sales Yoy -10.6%; YTD -20%; in the West YTD sales -32.4%. Median days on market has risen from Sept 06 3.4 months to 6 months.
The % of homes sold by price:
under 150K up 18% vs 11%; 150K to 199K up 24% vs 21%;
200K to 299K down 30% vs 24% ; 300K to 399K down 17% vs 15%; 400K to 499K
down 8% vs 7%; 500K to 750K down 8% vs 6%; Over 750K flat at 5%.
Initial Claims 05/19 311K vs prior 297K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up 4K. 4 week MA -3.5K to 302.75K. Continuing claims +58K to 2.53M; 4 week MA -14.75K to 2.51M
Durable Orders Apr +0.6% vs prior +5% Full Report
Inside the number: Mar revised up from 4.3 to 5%. Good news... clearing out inventory or channel stuffing??
Durable goods shipments +1.9% vs prior +1.3%, 50% of the gain coming from semiconductors +46%.
Bad news... orders are decelerating.... sequentially ex transportation new orders flat +1.5%; YTD -0.4%. Ex defense new orders +0.6% vs prior vs +5.2%.
Worse yet... machinery orders -1.7% vs prior +5.3%; transportation orders -1.3% vs prior +13.6%.
YTD motor vehicles -6.1% electronics (ex semis) orders -0.1% vs prior -1.4%.
Core capital goods shipments +1.2% vs prior +4.4%; however, YTD capital goods orders excluding aircraft -1.3%
New Home Sales Apr 981K vs prior 858K Full Report
Inside the number: Good news... sales up 16%, as sales under 150K doubled. Inventory -1.5% to 538K, and six month MA up for the 1st time since Oct 2005 at 930K.
Bad news... high end homes taking the hit as median price plunged 10.9%, largest drop since 1970 - 37 years.
Sales Yoy -10.6%; YTD -20%; in the West YTD sales -32.4%. Median days on market has risen from Sept 06 3.4 months to 6 months.
The % of homes sold by price:
under 150K up 18% vs 11%; 150K to 199K up 24% vs 21%;
200K to 299K down 30% vs 24% ; 300K to 399K down 17% vs 15%; 400K to 499K
down 8% vs 7%; 500K to 750K down 8% vs 6%; Over 750K flat at 5%.
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