Economic Reports 05/25/07
Existing Home Sales Apr 5.99M vs prior 6.12M Full Report
Inside the number: Sequentially SFR sales -2% to 5.22M; Yoy -11.2%. Condos -3.8% to 770,000K; Yoy -7.7%.
Total sales by region: Northeast -8.8%; West -1.7%; South -1.2%; Midwest -0.7%.
Bad news... total sales -2.6% to a new four year low; total home sales Yoy -10.7%; YTD -12.7%.
Worse news... inventories rising sequentially 10.4% to 4.2 Million, Yoy +23%.
The 8.4 month supply is the highest in 15 years, rising Yoy +37.7%; SFR +38.3%; Condo +35.7%.
Disaster of epic proportion news... YTD total sales at 1.747M, annualized at 5.241M. On track for a 19% annual decline dwarfing last years 8.4% decline.
And we are being generous by assuming the YTD 4 month total will hold steady through the year.
My nattering sense is that due to elimination of no down, low down and subprime speculator slime, mounting foreclosures and a sprinkle of panic...
the inventory numbers will keep increasing as sales and prices decline exponentially;
with the sales decline approaching 25 to 30% and the price declines approaching 20% by year end.
This equates with the already noted 33% declines in building permits and construction spending.
Thats 1.2 Million less homes selling and from building permits, 600K less being built.
Add up all those escrow, title, lending, realtor, construction and speculation revenues being sucked out of the economy...
Can you say major recession and major layoffs? The Nattering One can... bend over and grab the nearest life jacket...
as the engine which created 60% of all new jobs since 2002 vanishes with a major squall in sight and no backup or sails...
Inside the number: Sequentially SFR sales -2% to 5.22M; Yoy -11.2%. Condos -3.8% to 770,000K; Yoy -7.7%.
Total sales by region: Northeast -8.8%; West -1.7%; South -1.2%; Midwest -0.7%.
Bad news... total sales -2.6% to a new four year low; total home sales Yoy -10.7%; YTD -12.7%.
Worse news... inventories rising sequentially 10.4% to 4.2 Million, Yoy +23%.
The 8.4 month supply is the highest in 15 years, rising Yoy +37.7%; SFR +38.3%; Condo +35.7%.
Disaster of epic proportion news... YTD total sales at 1.747M, annualized at 5.241M. On track for a 19% annual decline dwarfing last years 8.4% decline.
And we are being generous by assuming the YTD 4 month total will hold steady through the year.
My nattering sense is that due to elimination of no down, low down and subprime speculator slime, mounting foreclosures and a sprinkle of panic...
the inventory numbers will keep increasing as sales and prices decline exponentially;
with the sales decline approaching 25 to 30% and the price declines approaching 20% by year end.
This equates with the already noted 33% declines in building permits and construction spending.
Thats 1.2 Million less homes selling and from building permits, 600K less being built.
Add up all those escrow, title, lending, realtor, construction and speculation revenues being sucked out of the economy...
Can you say major recession and major layoffs? The Nattering One can... bend over and grab the nearest life jacket...
as the engine which created 60% of all new jobs since 2002 vanishes with a major squall in sight and no backup or sails...
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