Market Soapbox Week Ending 05/25/07
MON, split tape, DJIA -14 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJTA, SOXX. Bonds up, 10 yr yield -2 bps 4.78, $ up vs 1.3464E & up vs 121.465Y, WTI crude up 2% $66.27, gold up $663.8
TUE, split tape, DJIA -3 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept NDX, NAZ, MID, RUT, SOXX. Bonds down BIG 10 yr yield -5 bps 4.83, $ up vs 121.682Y & vs 1.3451E, WTI crude down $65.66, gold down $659.6.
WEN, broadbased whipsaw, DJIA -14 on average volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XOI, XAU. Bonds down 10yr yield +1bps 4.84, $ down vs 121.575y & up vs 1.345E, WTI crude up $65.86, gold up $662.7
THU, broadbased consolidation, DJIA -85 on higher volume with ugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds up10 yr yield -1bps 4.83, $ down vs 121.1y & up vs 1.3424E, gold down $654.7, WTI crude down $64.34
FRI, DJIA +66 on thin volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3bps 4.86, $ up vs 121.795y & down vs 1.3442E, gold up $661.40, WTI crude up $65.20
This week, DJIA -40, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2882. CRB commodities down from 313.17 to 313.10.
XAU down 136.75 to 135.80 & gold down from $662 to $661.4. XOI up 1348.94 to 1359.86 & WTI crude up to $65.20 from $64.94.
Volatility VIX up 12.76 to 13.34. Dollar index up 82.17 to 82.37. $ up vs falling Yen 121.12 to 121.795 & up vs Euro 1.3508 to 1.3442.
This week bonds down 30 year bond falling from 109.30 to 109.08, yield curve correcting 2 & 10 equal; 30 yr back above 6 month.
30 yr +4bps; 10 yr +6bps, 6 mo +0bps. 30 yr @ 5.00%; 10 yr @ 4.86; 5 yr @ 4.79; 2yr @ 4.86; 6 mo @ 4.96.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ? 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07
Resistance: DJIA 13625; SP500 1533; NAZ 2600; NDX 1925
Support: DJIA 13420; SP500 1505; NAZ 2530; NDX 1870
4 day losing streak snapped, DJIA up 31 for 41; 45 record closes since Oct.; 23 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 38 for 53.
Over the last 3 weeks, some magic numbers with strong resistance... SOXX 500-505. it still stands... and RUT 830, NDX 1905 are still magnets. SP500 closing at 1515, just above 1510 level.
Near term we could head down to 1470 or 1505 was the barrier and we could head up to 1545 on the way to 1575.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, split tape, DJIA -3 on average volume with midlin internals. All DOWN cept NDX, NAZ, MID, RUT, SOXX. Bonds down BIG 10 yr yield -5 bps 4.83, $ up vs 121.682Y & vs 1.3451E, WTI crude down $65.66, gold down $659.6.
WEN, broadbased whipsaw, DJIA -14 on average volume with poor internals. All DOWN cept DJTA, XOI, XAU. Bonds down 10yr yield +1bps 4.84, $ down vs 121.575y & up vs 1.345E, WTI crude up $65.86, gold up $662.7
THU, broadbased consolidation, DJIA -85 on higher volume with ugly internals. All DOWN. Bonds up10 yr yield -1bps 4.83, $ down vs 121.1y & up vs 1.3424E, gold down $654.7, WTI crude down $64.34
FRI, DJIA +66 on thin volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJUA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +3bps 4.86, $ up vs 121.795y & down vs 1.3442E, gold up $661.40, WTI crude up $65.20
This week, DJIA -40, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2882. CRB commodities down from 313.17 to 313.10.
XAU down 136.75 to 135.80 & gold down from $662 to $661.4. XOI up 1348.94 to 1359.86 & WTI crude up to $65.20 from $64.94.
Volatility VIX up 12.76 to 13.34. Dollar index up 82.17 to 82.37. $ up vs falling Yen 121.12 to 121.795 & up vs Euro 1.3508 to 1.3442.
This week bonds down 30 year bond falling from 109.30 to 109.08, yield curve correcting 2 & 10 equal; 30 yr back above 6 month.
30 yr +4bps; 10 yr +6bps, 6 mo +0bps. 30 yr @ 5.00%; 10 yr @ 4.86; 5 yr @ 4.79; 2yr @ 4.86; 6 mo @ 4.96.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - ? 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -?; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07
Resistance: DJIA 13625; SP500 1533; NAZ 2600; NDX 1925
Support: DJIA 13420; SP500 1505; NAZ 2530; NDX 1870
4 day losing streak snapped, DJIA up 31 for 41; 45 record closes since Oct.; 23 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 38 for 53.
Over the last 3 weeks, some magic numbers with strong resistance... SOXX 500-505. it still stands... and RUT 830, NDX 1905 are still magnets. SP500 closing at 1515, just above 1510 level.
Near term we could head down to 1470 or 1505 was the barrier and we could head up to 1545 on the way to 1575.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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