Economic Reports 06/19/07
Summary: The sun continues to set on the housing market and creator of 75% of new jobs since 2001; as SFR permits & starts decline to multi year lows trimming 33% YTD.
Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Market Index 28 vs prior 30 Full Report
Inside the number: The lowest builder confidence since 1991. NAHB President Brian Catalde:
"Builders continue to report serious impacts of tighter lending standards on current home sales as well as cancellations, and they continue to trim prices... to work down sizeable inventory positions."
Flyin in the face of Fed speak: "Home sales most likely will erode somewhat further in the months ahead and improvements in housing starts probably will not be recorded until early next year.
As a result, we expect housing to exert a drag on economic growth during the balance of 2007."
Housing Starts May -2.1% 1.475M vs prior 1.506M Full Report
Inside the number: April starts revised down from 1.528M. Building Permits May +3% 1.5M vs 1.457M on a 3.1% increase in multi family units.
SFR starts -3.4% 1.17M and SFR permits -1.8% 1.06M, the lowest in 10 years. YTD starts -28.2%; permits -28.9%.
Starts in the West -38.5%, largest Yoy decline in 16 years.
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co: "The story on starts is stability, but it is widely known that the inventory situation is horrendous."
Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital: "The housing starts data are a sideshow to the main event, which is the demand side of the equation."
Richard Moody, Mission Residential: "There is too much inventory lingering in the market, and the most recent data suggesting rapid growth in the number of foreclosures mean the inventory overhang will become more severe. Particularly with higher mortgage rates taking a bigger bite out of demand."
Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Market Index 28 vs prior 30 Full Report
Inside the number: The lowest builder confidence since 1991. NAHB President Brian Catalde:
"Builders continue to report serious impacts of tighter lending standards on current home sales as well as cancellations, and they continue to trim prices... to work down sizeable inventory positions."
Flyin in the face of Fed speak: "Home sales most likely will erode somewhat further in the months ahead and improvements in housing starts probably will not be recorded until early next year.
As a result, we expect housing to exert a drag on economic growth during the balance of 2007."
Housing Starts May -2.1% 1.475M vs prior 1.506M Full Report
Inside the number: April starts revised down from 1.528M. Building Permits May +3% 1.5M vs 1.457M on a 3.1% increase in multi family units.
SFR starts -3.4% 1.17M and SFR permits -1.8% 1.06M, the lowest in 10 years. YTD starts -28.2%; permits -28.9%.
Starts in the West -38.5%, largest Yoy decline in 16 years.
Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co: "The story on starts is stability, but it is widely known that the inventory situation is horrendous."
Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital: "The housing starts data are a sideshow to the main event, which is the demand side of the equation."
Richard Moody, Mission Residential: "There is too much inventory lingering in the market, and the most recent data suggesting rapid growth in the number of foreclosures mean the inventory overhang will become more severe. Particularly with higher mortgage rates taking a bigger bite out of demand."
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