Economic Reports 06/21/07
Summary: Leading indicators... Joseph Goebbels could not have forged a better headline:
"US economy's weathered the worst, hints at no lasting impact from housing & gasoline." Under the sheets anything but...
Philly Fed showing an increase in new orders, continued cost pressures, decreasing shipments and a diminished growth outlook.
Inital claims still painting a grim picture as the manufacturing & construction bleed continues into trade & service and spreads like contagion into other sectors.
Leading Indicators May +0.3% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up from -0.5%. Declining: M2 Money supply; Interest Rate Spread (10 year bond less federal funds).
More "good" news; declining : manufacturers new orders for non defense capital goods; manufacturers new orders for consumer goods & materials; and average hours worked.
Much like the Fed's "hedonically" adjusted CPI & PCE, this conference board report has lost most of its credibility due to its many "jury rigging" adjustments.
When is tighter money, higher interest rates and declining industrial production = good news???
Philadelphia Fed Jun +18 vs prior +4.2 Full Report
Inside the number: good news; new orders up to 18.3 vs 8.7; unfilled orders up to -0.7 vs -9.1; prices paid down to 29.7 vs 32.3; delivery times up to -3.5 vs -8.2.
Bad news: prices received up to 5.1 vs 2.2; shipments down to 5.0 vs 9.3; employment down to 5.6 vs 12.9.
Looking ahead: future general activity index down from 30.8 to 16.7; lowest reading this year. Future new orders index down from 30.1 to 19.1.
Initial Claims 06/16 +10K to 324K Full Report
Inside the number: The bleed worsens, prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +2.5K to 314.5K. Continuing claims +39K to 2.523M; 4 week MA -250 to 2.5M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +1,124 construction, service
NJ +1,481 trade, service, manufacturing
GA +1,755 manufacturing
SC +2,420 manufacturing
IL +3,162 trade, service, manufacturing
FL +3,576 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
PA +5,220 printing/publishing, transportation, chemical, mining
CA +10,333 trade, service
"US economy's weathered the worst, hints at no lasting impact from housing & gasoline." Under the sheets anything but...
Philly Fed showing an increase in new orders, continued cost pressures, decreasing shipments and a diminished growth outlook.
Inital claims still painting a grim picture as the manufacturing & construction bleed continues into trade & service and spreads like contagion into other sectors.
Leading Indicators May +0.3% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up from -0.5%. Declining: M2 Money supply; Interest Rate Spread (10 year bond less federal funds).
More "good" news; declining : manufacturers new orders for non defense capital goods; manufacturers new orders for consumer goods & materials; and average hours worked.
Much like the Fed's "hedonically" adjusted CPI & PCE, this conference board report has lost most of its credibility due to its many "jury rigging" adjustments.
When is tighter money, higher interest rates and declining industrial production = good news???
Philadelphia Fed Jun +18 vs prior +4.2 Full Report
Inside the number: good news; new orders up to 18.3 vs 8.7; unfilled orders up to -0.7 vs -9.1; prices paid down to 29.7 vs 32.3; delivery times up to -3.5 vs -8.2.
Bad news: prices received up to 5.1 vs 2.2; shipments down to 5.0 vs 9.3; employment down to 5.6 vs 12.9.
Looking ahead: future general activity index down from 30.8 to 16.7; lowest reading this year. Future new orders index down from 30.1 to 19.1.
Initial Claims 06/16 +10K to 324K Full Report
Inside the number: The bleed worsens, prior revised up 3K. 4 week MA +2.5K to 314.5K. Continuing claims +39K to 2.523M; 4 week MA -250 to 2.5M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State Change State Supplied Comment
NY +1,124 construction, service
NJ +1,481 trade, service, manufacturing
GA +1,755 manufacturing
SC +2,420 manufacturing
IL +3,162 trade, service, manufacturing
FL +3,576 construction, trade, service, manufacturing, agriculture
PA +5,220 printing/publishing, transportation, chemical, mining
CA +10,333 trade, service
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