BOE; ECB; Initial Claims; Wholesale Inventories
Summary: BOE & ECB Rate Announcements both held steady at ECB 4%; BOE 5%
Initial claims decline, long term worsens. Wholesale inventories empirically demonstrate 14% stagflation rate.
Initial Claims 05/03 -18K at 365K vs 380K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.5K at 367K. Continuing unemployment -10K at 3.020M; 4 week MA +16.75K at 2.998M. See states with increase > 1K for the bleed into other sectors.
Wholesale Inventories Mar -0.1% vs prior +0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories Yoy +6.8%; durable +0.3% vs +0.7%; non durable -0.7% vs +1.3%.
Table 1 Sales Year to Date without adjustments for price changes; given economic growth is Zero or negative; volume or unit sales are actually down.
Therefore, the change approximates true inflation rates based upon the price changes.
Durables +4.7%; Non Durables +22.4%; Petroleum +55%; Farm +77%; Overall +13.7%.
Again, we gently repeat one of our mantras: Anyone claiming inflation is under double digits is either a paid liar, a fool, or both.
Initial claims decline, long term worsens. Wholesale inventories empirically demonstrate 14% stagflation rate.
Initial Claims 05/03 -18K at 365K vs 380K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.5K at 367K. Continuing unemployment -10K at 3.020M; 4 week MA +16.75K at 2.998M. See states with increase > 1K for the bleed into other sectors.
Wholesale Inventories Mar -0.1% vs prior +0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: Inventories Yoy +6.8%; durable +0.3% vs +0.7%; non durable -0.7% vs +1.3%.
Table 1 Sales Year to Date without adjustments for price changes; given economic growth is Zero or negative; volume or unit sales are actually down.
Therefore, the change approximates true inflation rates based upon the price changes.
Durables +4.7%; Non Durables +22.4%; Petroleum +55%; Farm +77%; Overall +13.7%.
Again, we gently repeat one of our mantras: Anyone claiming inflation is under double digits is either a paid liar, a fool, or both.
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