Market Observations 10/10/08
Resistance: DJIA 8700 (4000DMA); SP500 950 (4500DMA); NAZ 1700 (4500DMA); NDX 1285 (4500DMA)
Support: DJIA 7800 (4750DMA); SP500 830 (5500DMA); NAZ 1570 (5000DMA); NDX 1175 (5000DMA)
SP500 909, gap down 902, dive to 839, rebound to 936, close 899. NDX 1275, gap down 1235, rise to 1302, dive to 1196, rise to 1317, close 1270.
FRI: The House approved the bailout.Essentially the worlds largest pawn shop just got bigger;
and the bill does nothing to address the real problem: recapitalization of the system.
MON: Fed announced it is planning to double the outstanding Term Auction Facilities (TAF) balances to $900 billion.
Overnight Libor +37 bps to 2.37%; At the low; the SP500 dropped 92 points.
TUE: Overnight Libor rate rising 157 basis points to 3.94%. And the worlds largest pawn shop got even bigger... Fed now bailing out $1.6 Trillion CP market.
WEN: The Fed cut to 1.5% as multiple central banks coordinated cuts; the Yen cracked 100 vs $ and the TED spread widened to 3.91 with 90 day Libor at 4.52%.
THU: The short selling ban was lifted; 90 day libor surging to 4.75. DJIA off 8% below 9K;
VIX above 60, 1st time ever; off their highs: Oil -42% below $85; Financials -55%.
Overnight, Nikkei -9.6%; Hang Seng -7.2%; FTSE -9%; Dax -7%; CAC -7.7%.
Today, SP500 bounces from down 7.3% on the 3rd highest volume ever, eight straight punishing sessions.
GE posted a 10% Yoy EPS decline, stock up 13% on the "good" news. 10 year bonds have been porked 4 straight sessions; raising 30 yr mortgage rates from 5.875 to 6.5%
Too much accounting alchemy has frozen the system solid. Whats that crashing sound? At today's low: SP500 -22% the worst week ever; -46% from its all time high.
A near term bottom perhaps, a sucker rally or dead cat bounce seems due;
giving a chance to sell into "strength" before the SP500 plunges through its ten year support line at 800.
When its all said and done; The crashes of Oct 29 and Oct 08 will be synonymous.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Support: DJIA 7800 (4750DMA); SP500 830 (5500DMA); NAZ 1570 (5000DMA); NDX 1175 (5000DMA)
SP500 909, gap down 902, dive to 839, rebound to 936, close 899. NDX 1275, gap down 1235, rise to 1302, dive to 1196, rise to 1317, close 1270.
FRI: The House approved the bailout.Essentially the worlds largest pawn shop just got bigger;
and the bill does nothing to address the real problem: recapitalization of the system.
MON: Fed announced it is planning to double the outstanding Term Auction Facilities (TAF) balances to $900 billion.
Overnight Libor +37 bps to 2.37%; At the low; the SP500 dropped 92 points.
TUE: Overnight Libor rate rising 157 basis points to 3.94%. And the worlds largest pawn shop got even bigger... Fed now bailing out $1.6 Trillion CP market.
WEN: The Fed cut to 1.5% as multiple central banks coordinated cuts; the Yen cracked 100 vs $ and the TED spread widened to 3.91 with 90 day Libor at 4.52%.
THU: The short selling ban was lifted; 90 day libor surging to 4.75. DJIA off 8% below 9K;
VIX above 60, 1st time ever; off their highs: Oil -42% below $85; Financials -55%.
Overnight, Nikkei -9.6%; Hang Seng -7.2%; FTSE -9%; Dax -7%; CAC -7.7%.
Today, SP500 bounces from down 7.3% on the 3rd highest volume ever, eight straight punishing sessions.
GE posted a 10% Yoy EPS decline, stock up 13% on the "good" news. 10 year bonds have been porked 4 straight sessions; raising 30 yr mortgage rates from 5.875 to 6.5%
Too much accounting alchemy has frozen the system solid. Whats that crashing sound? At today's low: SP500 -22% the worst week ever; -46% from its all time high.
A near term bottom perhaps, a sucker rally or dead cat bounce seems due;
giving a chance to sell into "strength" before the SP500 plunges through its ten year support line at 800.
When its all said and done; The crashes of Oct 29 and Oct 08 will be synonymous.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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