Market Soapbox 10/06/08
MON, more post bailout followthrough, DJIA -370 on extremely high volume with devastating internals. All DOWN HUGE.
Bonds up BIG 10yr -15bps 3.45%. $ up HUGE vs 1.3514 & down HUGE vs 101.593y, WTI -5% $88.59, gold +4% $862.1; TED Spread down -7bps 3.79%
New multi yr lows SP500 1099; drop to 1007; dead cat bounce to close at 1056. NDX 1470; gap down 1431; dive to 1339; bounce to 1411.
FRI: non farms -159K; 7 months of negative job creation; Wells buys Wachovia for $15 billion; The House approved the bailout.
Essentially the worlds largest pawn shop just got bigger; and the bill does nothing to address the real problem: recapitalization of the system.
Today, bail all you want... Fed announced it is planning to double the outstanding Term Auction Facilities (TAF) balances to $900 billion
Its a ragin global contagion... with Euro banks failing left & right... France proposed an emergency G8 meeting on the financial crisis.
Carry trade unwind; Vs $ Euro -1.5%; Pound -2%; Yen +5%; Hang Seng -5.0% Nikkei -4.3%; FTSE -7.3%, DAX -7.1% and CAC -9.0%.
CRB Index-5.2%. despite Oil prices -5.0% to $89.15; Airline stocks -14%; -49% YTD; 10 yr note yield down to 3.45%. Gold +4.4%
Ebay will lay off 1000; Citigroup whining against Wachovia and Wells Fargo;
BofA cuts divident 50% and will panhandle for $10 billion in common stock. Why?
In a legal settlement with 11 states, Countrywide (bought by BofA) will provide $8.4 billion in distressed borrower relief.
VIX spiked 10.9 to 56.0; an 18 year high. TED spread down, but Overnight Libor +37 bps to 2.37%.
At their lows DJIA, NAZ & SP500 were down 7.8%, 8.8% and 8.3%. DJIA closed under 10K.
How bad was today? At the low; the SP500 dropped 92 points = 920 DJIA pts.
07/17/08: We repeat, this is a "chump jump". Cavaet emptor.
08/01/08: Cramer acting like Kramer... ripping up a bear and declaring a bottom.
We expect the current dead cat bounce to end around Aug 18th... two words: Get ready.
We sense, on the horizon... a market event which will require emergency Fed and congressional action. Plunging this dead man walking to new depths..
Back to present day: Even though the market recouped half of its losses by closing, this dead man walking is flatlining in triage.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds up BIG 10yr -15bps 3.45%. $ up HUGE vs 1.3514 & down HUGE vs 101.593y, WTI -5% $88.59, gold +4% $862.1; TED Spread down -7bps 3.79%
New multi yr lows SP500 1099; drop to 1007; dead cat bounce to close at 1056. NDX 1470; gap down 1431; dive to 1339; bounce to 1411.
FRI: non farms -159K; 7 months of negative job creation; Wells buys Wachovia for $15 billion; The House approved the bailout.
Essentially the worlds largest pawn shop just got bigger; and the bill does nothing to address the real problem: recapitalization of the system.
Today, bail all you want... Fed announced it is planning to double the outstanding Term Auction Facilities (TAF) balances to $900 billion
Its a ragin global contagion... with Euro banks failing left & right... France proposed an emergency G8 meeting on the financial crisis.
Carry trade unwind; Vs $ Euro -1.5%; Pound -2%; Yen +5%; Hang Seng -5.0% Nikkei -4.3%; FTSE -7.3%, DAX -7.1% and CAC -9.0%.
CRB Index-5.2%. despite Oil prices -5.0% to $89.15; Airline stocks -14%; -49% YTD; 10 yr note yield down to 3.45%. Gold +4.4%
Ebay will lay off 1000; Citigroup whining against Wachovia and Wells Fargo;
BofA cuts divident 50% and will panhandle for $10 billion in common stock. Why?
In a legal settlement with 11 states, Countrywide (bought by BofA) will provide $8.4 billion in distressed borrower relief.
VIX spiked 10.9 to 56.0; an 18 year high. TED spread down, but Overnight Libor +37 bps to 2.37%.
At their lows DJIA, NAZ & SP500 were down 7.8%, 8.8% and 8.3%. DJIA closed under 10K.
How bad was today? At the low; the SP500 dropped 92 points = 920 DJIA pts.
07/17/08: We repeat, this is a "chump jump". Cavaet emptor.
08/01/08: Cramer acting like Kramer... ripping up a bear and declaring a bottom.
We expect the current dead cat bounce to end around Aug 18th... two words: Get ready.
We sense, on the horizon... a market event which will require emergency Fed and congressional action. Plunging this dead man walking to new depths..
Back to present day: Even though the market recouped half of its losses by closing, this dead man walking is flatlining in triage.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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