Market Soapbox 11/26/08
WEN, more head fake, DJIA +247 on average volume with sterling internals. All UP 3%+.
Bonds up -13bps 10 yr 2.98, $ up vs E1.288 & down vs 95.45y, WTI +7% $54.44, gold -1% $811.3, TED spread +4bps 2.14%.; 3 mo Libor -2bps 2.18%
SP500 857, dip to 841, rise to close 887. NDX 1142, gap down 1127, rise to close 1193.
FRI: Geithner Treasury appointment spurs a head fake bouncing off SP500 741; a number not seen since 1997. Could there be a small Santa rally coming? Perhaps.
MON: biggest two day rally since 1987. Existing Home Sales Oct -3.1%; 33% below the 05 peak; Yoy median price -11.3%; the largest drop on record.
TUE: GDP-Prel. Q3 -0.5% Q3 PCE -3.7% vs -3.1%. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Yoy -17.4%, largest decline on record.
Today, a massive decline in Durable Orders Oct -6.2% vs -0.2%; ex transport -4.4%; non defense capital goods -4%.
Personal Income Oct +0.3% vs +0.1%; Personal Spending Oct -1% vs -0.3%; the 5th consecutive decline; Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov 55.3 vs 57.9; the lowest in 28 years.
Chicago PMI Nov 33.8 vs 37.8; the lowest in 26 yrs; orders a 20 yr low; employment a 6 yr low; longest production lead time in 28 yrs
New Home Sales Oct -5.3% at 433K, the fewest in 17 years; -40% Yoy; -69% from peak; inventory 11.1 months, 5th highest on record. Homebuilders +14% on the good news??
Let the pension benefit deficit disorder bailouts begin...
34 million workers now $204 billion short on their pensions as companies begin to default. PBGC must cover; already with an $11 billion deficit.
Drawing a line under unemployment and civil unrest... EU $259 billion stimulus plan & 2 weeks after a $586 billlion stimulus...
China's biggest interest-rate cut in 11 years; -108bps to 5.58%. The riot police have been very busy of late.
With all this "good" news.. a 4 day rally, the longest streak since May and steepest SP climb since 1933.
What in the hell are these idiots smoking? Get ready as reality will again set in, and the hammer will fall hard.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds up -13bps 10 yr 2.98, $ up vs E1.288 & down vs 95.45y, WTI +7% $54.44, gold -1% $811.3, TED spread +4bps 2.14%.; 3 mo Libor -2bps 2.18%
SP500 857, dip to 841, rise to close 887. NDX 1142, gap down 1127, rise to close 1193.
FRI: Geithner Treasury appointment spurs a head fake bouncing off SP500 741; a number not seen since 1997. Could there be a small Santa rally coming? Perhaps.
MON: biggest two day rally since 1987. Existing Home Sales Oct -3.1%; 33% below the 05 peak; Yoy median price -11.3%; the largest drop on record.
TUE: GDP-Prel. Q3 -0.5% Q3 PCE -3.7% vs -3.1%. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Yoy -17.4%, largest decline on record.
Today, a massive decline in Durable Orders Oct -6.2% vs -0.2%; ex transport -4.4%; non defense capital goods -4%.
Personal Income Oct +0.3% vs +0.1%; Personal Spending Oct -1% vs -0.3%; the 5th consecutive decline; Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov 55.3 vs 57.9; the lowest in 28 years.
Chicago PMI Nov 33.8 vs 37.8; the lowest in 26 yrs; orders a 20 yr low; employment a 6 yr low; longest production lead time in 28 yrs
New Home Sales Oct -5.3% at 433K, the fewest in 17 years; -40% Yoy; -69% from peak; inventory 11.1 months, 5th highest on record. Homebuilders +14% on the good news??
Let the pension benefit deficit disorder bailouts begin...
34 million workers now $204 billion short on their pensions as companies begin to default. PBGC must cover; already with an $11 billion deficit.
Drawing a line under unemployment and civil unrest... EU $259 billion stimulus plan & 2 weeks after a $586 billlion stimulus...
China's biggest interest-rate cut in 11 years; -108bps to 5.58%. The riot police have been very busy of late.
With all this "good" news.. a 4 day rally, the longest streak since May and steepest SP climb since 1933.
What in the hell are these idiots smoking? Get ready as reality will again set in, and the hammer will fall hard.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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