2015 NFL Playoffs - Wild Card Recap

Go to original post for pick'em, legend, stats, full comments and playing against TOM (turn over margin differential) analysis.

Sat Jan 3, 4:20 EST

ARZ@CAR -6.5 O/U 38

Taking road pooch ARZ getting +6.5, CAR to win.

RESULT: CAR 27 - 16 ARZ ATS:L 0-1 SU:W 1-0

"CAR #4 TOP, runs well and plays keep away. ARZ D ranks #26 in YPC, a concern vs CAR #7 ground game." The Panthers ground out 386 yds of offense; rushing for 188 yds while holding the rock for 37 minutes and 74 plays. 13 zone read option plays resulted in 9 hand-offs for 59 yds and 4 QB keepers for 13 yds.

"ARZ O - Anemic can't run, ARZ rush is dead last #32 YPC" Each team had 3 TO's, uncharacteristic for the Cards. Two 1st half CAR TO's set up the Cards for 2 TD drives from the CAR 17 and 30 yd line. Otherwise, the Cards were "offensive" floundering for an all time NFL playoff low 78 yds. 3rd string QB Lindley was 3-7 for 31 yds and two picks. On 15 att. Zona rushed for 27 yds while holding the rock for only 23 minutes on 47 plays.

Sat Jan 3, 8:15 EST

BAL@PIT -3 O/U 46

Taking PIT at home to win and giving -3.

RESULT: BAL 30 - 17 PIT ATS:L 0-2 SU:L 1-1

"Earlier PIT losses to Jets, Bucs and Saints (latter two @ home) make one wonder which team will show up."

Answered: The sloppy Steelers (home playoff teams with TOM -2 = 78.3% losing pct.) who can't finish drives. PIT #1 TOP held the rock 35 min on 72 plays, however 8 penalties -114 yds and...

3 TO's resulted in only 3 Steeler FG's by Q4. Meanwhile, the road wise Ravens (10 road playoff wins) had 1 TO; 2 penalties -14 yds; and scored 3 Raven TD's with only 25 mins TOP. Simple math 21-9 yields 12pt differential + 78.3% chance of losing = Steeler's finish outside.

Sun Jan 4, 1:05 EST

CIN@IND -3 O/U 49

Taking IND to overcome mistakes at home to win and giving -3.

RESULT: IND 26 - 10 CIN ATS:W 1-2 SU:W 2-1

"Ben-gals mediocre passing. IND defense allowed 7 pass TD and a 27.1 Total QBR @ home, both NFL bests; In playoffs, CIN QB Dalton 0-3 with QBR 17; clueless Marvin Lewis 0-5."

Ben-gals without WR Green and TE Gresham; net passing 144 yds; Dalton QBR 20; 0-9 att. greater than 10 yds downfield; now 0-4 in playoffs with CIN scoring 13 pts or less in those games.

CIN #20 Pass D exposed for 368 yds by Luck as the Colt's dominated TOP 34 vs 26 min. Clueless Lewis now 0-6 in playoffs; probably good for another fat contract and extension of Ben-gal fans sufferance. You gotta wonder?

Sun Jan 4, 4:40 EST

DET@DAL -6.5 O/U 48

Taking road pooch DET getting +6.5 points, DAL to win.

RESULT: DAL 24 - DET 20 ATS:W 2-2 SU:W 3-1

"DET Great run D. DAL opponents too busy passing to bother running.DAL O TOP keeps suspect D (living off turnovers) off field, not today."

DAL QB Romo was sacked six times. The Lions #28 run game out rushed the Cowboys 90 - 73 yds as the porous Cowboy D was exposed for 397 yds. If it works, you keep doing it... In building a 14-0 Q1 lead, the Motor City Kitty's ran the ball 50% (9 of 18) of the time. Then? For the last 3Q's, (12 of 49) the Pontiac Pussycats ran 25% of the time leading to 3 TO's and DAL outscoring DET 24-6.

The pass interference "non call" which should have gone against the Cowboys, was irrelevant. Why? Three 2nd half Lion TO's (road playoff teams with TOM -2 = 95.4% losing pct.) and coach Caldwell's game plan gaff were enough to seal Detroit's fate.

Pick'em Review: SU 4 home favs = 3-1; ATS 2 road dogs 1-1; 2 home favs 1-1