2016 NFL Playoffs Wild Card
In Memoriam: Frank Gifford, Ken Stabler and Doug Atkins.
In the playoffs, road teams are not usually favored. When they are, there's a good reason why. This week there are three SB winning QB's on the road going up against rookie/sophmore QB's. (Big Ben - PIT; WIlson - SEA; Rodgers - GB) two of them are favored.
AFC
Making only two changes as the season progressed, (Wk 8 Jets for Buf; Wk 14 Chefs for Jets) we managed to pick 5 of the 6 playoff teams. Erring on IND, who knew that Luck would suffer a season ending injury so early? Moving West...
DEN - Great D. Osweiler? No way unless healthy Manning returns. He did.
NE - Proven mortal by Den and Phi. In charge, in the East, #28 Rushing??
CIN - Balanced team weighted down by inept coaching.
HOU - Late run, still inconsistent, default winner of 2nd worst division in football.
KC - Red hot with stout D and ground game, could rock the boat.
PIT - Stout run D and resurgent Big Ben, could rock the boat.
KC -3 @HOU OU 40
The 11-5 Chefs won at the 9-7 Texans Wk 1 27-20, both teams have improved since. The Chefs are on a 10 game win streak. KC passing anemic #30 YPG; offense #27 YPG should have tough time vs the Texans #3 D YPG. Unless the Texans stuff the box and challenge Smith to throw, Chefs #6 run game YPG should lite up HOU #17 YPC run D.
On a neutral field KC would be a 10 point favorite. Considering HOU gets 4 (in the playoffs) for being at home, this makes KC -3 seem like a bargain. Chefs coaching and conservative passing (without turnovers, +14 diff) should come through. Good defense, ground game and turnover free ball control win games. Pick SU and ATS KC -3
PIT -1.5 @CIN OU 46
These division rivals split their series, both winning away with 10-6 PIT winning 4 wks ago 33-20. The 12-4 Bungals have the better overall defense #11 YPG, and neither team defends the pass well CIN #20 YPG. PIT has the #2 passing attack and actually runs the ball better, #8 YPC while CIN is anemic #23. PIT also defends the run better #6 YPC while CIN has trouble #22. Can backup AJ McCarron pass vs the #30 YPG pass D without throwing INT's? He better.
Big Ben has been horrible on the road 7 TD - 14 INT and on a neutral field CIN would be a 2 pt favorite, getting 4 at home, they should be a 6 pt fav, yet are a 3 pt dog? Why? Since 2000, the Bungals have beaten the Steelers 9 times in 32 attempts (.281). 5 of those victories have come since 2009 in 14 attempts (.357). In their last 6 home games vs PIT, CIN is 1-5 (.166). Bungal coach Clueless Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs, no coach has ever gone 0-7, until now. Pick SU and ATS PIT -1.5
NFC
Making only one change as the season progressed, (Wk 14 Vikes for Rams) we managed to pick 5 of the 6 playoff teams. Erring on DAL, who knew that Romo would suffer a season ending injury so early? Moving West...
CAR - If Newton doesn't make mistakes, ground game and D could go all the way.
ARZ - They jelled, one of two teams that could take out Panthers on road.
MIN - Ground and D in place, no passing game, unimaginative coaching.
WAS - 9-7 wins pathetic NFC least by default. Cousins a bright spot.
SEA - Squawks make late run, could rock the boat, inconsistency haunts them.
In the playoffs, road teams are not usually favored. When they are, there's a good reason why. This week there are three SB winning QB's on the road going up against rookie/sophmore QB's. (Big Ben - PIT; WIlson - SEA; Rodgers - GB) two of them are favored.
AFC
Making only two changes as the season progressed, (Wk 8 Jets for Buf; Wk 14 Chefs for Jets) we managed to pick 5 of the 6 playoff teams. Erring on IND, who knew that Luck would suffer a season ending injury so early? Moving West...
DEN - Great D. Osweiler? No way unless healthy Manning returns. He did.
NE - Proven mortal by Den and Phi. In charge, in the East, #28 Rushing??
CIN - Balanced team weighted down by inept coaching.
HOU - Late run, still inconsistent, default winner of 2nd worst division in football.
KC - Red hot with stout D and ground game, could rock the boat.
PIT - Stout run D and resurgent Big Ben, could rock the boat.
KC -3 @HOU OU 40
The 11-5 Chefs won at the 9-7 Texans Wk 1 27-20, both teams have improved since. The Chefs are on a 10 game win streak. KC passing anemic #30 YPG; offense #27 YPG should have tough time vs the Texans #3 D YPG. Unless the Texans stuff the box and challenge Smith to throw, Chefs #6 run game YPG should lite up HOU #17 YPC run D.
On a neutral field KC would be a 10 point favorite. Considering HOU gets 4 (in the playoffs) for being at home, this makes KC -3 seem like a bargain. Chefs coaching and conservative passing (without turnovers, +14 diff) should come through. Good defense, ground game and turnover free ball control win games. Pick SU and ATS KC -3
PIT -1.5 @CIN OU 46
These division rivals split their series, both winning away with 10-6 PIT winning 4 wks ago 33-20. The 12-4 Bungals have the better overall defense #11 YPG, and neither team defends the pass well CIN #20 YPG. PIT has the #2 passing attack and actually runs the ball better, #8 YPC while CIN is anemic #23. PIT also defends the run better #6 YPC while CIN has trouble #22. Can backup AJ McCarron pass vs the #30 YPG pass D without throwing INT's? He better.
Big Ben has been horrible on the road 7 TD - 14 INT and on a neutral field CIN would be a 2 pt favorite, getting 4 at home, they should be a 6 pt fav, yet are a 3 pt dog? Why? Since 2000, the Bungals have beaten the Steelers 9 times in 32 attempts (.281). 5 of those victories have come since 2009 in 14 attempts (.357). In their last 6 home games vs PIT, CIN is 1-5 (.166). Bungal coach Clueless Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs, no coach has ever gone 0-7, until now. Pick SU and ATS PIT -1.5
NFC
Making only one change as the season progressed, (Wk 14 Vikes for Rams) we managed to pick 5 of the 6 playoff teams. Erring on DAL, who knew that Romo would suffer a season ending injury so early? Moving West...
CAR - If Newton doesn't make mistakes, ground game and D could go all the way.
ARZ - They jelled, one of two teams that could take out Panthers on road.
MIN - Ground and D in place, no passing game, unimaginative coaching.
WAS - 9-7 wins pathetic NFC least by default. Cousins a bright spot.
SEA - Squawks make late run, could rock the boat, inconsistency haunts them.
GB - Underachievement compliments NFL's best QB, weak on the road.
SEA -4.5 @MIN OU 40
The 11-5 Norsemen pulled off the improbable by beating the Packers in GB to take the Central. The upstart Vikings are 13-3 ATS and 6-1 as dogs. Can you guess their solitary pooch loss ATS? Five weeks ago, missing four defensive starters the Vikes were humiliated at home by the 10-6 Squawks 38-7, scoring their only points on a garbage time KO return. SEA beastmode RB Lynch did not play in that game and returns this week.
Both teams boast robust ground games SEA #3, MIN #4. SEA #1 Run D should contain Peterson as the #2 Pass D will have plenty of spare time going up against the #31 MIN passing game. SEA finished 8-2 and on a neutral field would be a 6 pt favorite, MIN +4 for home means this should be a 2 pt spread. This tells you the bookie knows something by making the Squawks -5. It won't be as bad as last time, but it should not be close. Pick SU and ATS SEA -4.5
GB @ WAS -1.5 OU 45
10-6 Packers #25 passing YPG, no kidding with Rodgers, should get a shot in the arm vs #25 YPG Skin pass D. The Skins pass D does not play well at home, opposing QB's 65% comp, 7.6 YPC, 17TD, 6INT, 99 rating. What will Rodgers do? GB #12 YPG ground game should be able to hold the rock vs 9-7 Skins matador #26 YPG & #31 YPC run D.
Will Pack #29 run D YPC have a problem with Skins anemic #30 YPC ground game? Redskins QB Cousins #1 70% pass pct, GB held opponents to 58% #4. The Packers #6 pass D blitzes on 39% of passes, Cousins threw a league high 7 picks vs the blitz.
On a neutral field GB would be a 7 pt favorite, WAS getting 4 for home field tells you GB is underpriced as a 1 pt road dog. The Skins are the only playoff team without a win vs a team with a winning record, going 0-3 and losing each by at least 14 pts. The Packers are 10-6 and have lost their last two games, good teams don't lose 3 straight. Pick SU and ATS GB +1.5
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