How Long is King Dollar? or Chinese? or Both?

Over at a financial forum...

On Monday Jan 4th we shared this: "5% down for the week, sounds about right, but might be conservative, TBD.... VIX spiked from 17.29 to 23.36, already THE TRADE OF 2016."

"With reference to my New Years gift - /ES Late Dec high was 2075, 100 pts down is 1975, at 1980 almost made it there in a single trading day, in perspective, it took 3 trading days last year.  My spider senses say if shhhhh!!! "King Dollar" wakes up in Asia tomorrow, perhaps a visit for US to the roaring twenties, like SP500 1925 and then we shall see. TBD. "

Dateline Dec 7th, 5% and 1925 are upon us, the New Year's Gift was posted in this forum Dec 31st here and also the Nattering Naybob Chronicles.

STJL observed correctly that the VIX is NOT YET at panic levels.  This is actually an orderly selloff, at least outside of China.  As for Bond Panic - I mentioned flight to safety yesterday as yields have taken a two day dive.  Speaking of which....On Dec 9th we shared this:

"it will be a USD/CNY rate above 6.45 or a USD/CNH rate above 6.50 that shakes up global markets, sending investors scurrying back into government bonds.... At the moment the USD/CNY is 6.41 – 6.43… The BS Euro spike on Draghi's inaction that kicked DXY down to 97 is a breather before King Dollar resumes its "exploding plastic inevitable" to the upside. Should DXY settle above 100 and keep going and the USD/CNY gets over 6.45, you will start to hear the screams on the street. "

Those CNY/CNH levels have been exceeded, are we hearing those screams loud and clear? CNY/CNH dollar liquidity, after large Jan 4th spikes, last two days, Shibor has calmed back down at 1.9660; Hibor WAY back down to 2.1015; USD/CNY spike 6.52 to 6.59; USD/CNH at 6.63 to 6.71 back down to 6.69 calming a bit?; the spread has also narrowed by 3 ticks, still wide at 11.

On Dec 14th we shared: "Last week oil -11%, NG following, both with DXY pulling back for a rest at 97, so its not just the dollar, but also the SIDE EFFECTS of its wake. "

Telling me that those SWF portfolio alignments which I shared in this forum Dec 14th in responding to Advill and which inspired this missive Dec 17th are occurring, how long? TBD.

Concomitant RMB onshore/offshore devaluation process is causing global unwinds of carry trades and currency hedged positions, also RMB/Dollar liquidity seems to be calming, how long? TBD.

As for the side effects of his wake, the scary part is the King woke up on Tues-Wend, today with China halting and commods sans /NG getting pummeled, yet he appears to be napping, how long? TBD.


As for oil I believe with $34 breached, the next stop is $27/bbl, failing support at that level, $22/bbl. I concur with your call for Aug lows at the must hold SP500 1850-60 level, after a slight bounce? or how long? TBD.

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