Is Bond Talking?
As of December 23rd, 2015...
Countries with inverted yield curves:
Venezuela, Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Norway, Czech, Argentina
Mostly commodities producers with inverted curves.
Countries with negative bond yields all the way up to listed duration:
Switzerland 10yr, Sweden 2yr, Spain 6mo, Netherlands 5yr, Japan 3yr, Italy 3mo, Ireland 3yr, Germany 5yr, France 4yr, Finland 4yr, Denmark 3yr, Czech 4yr, Belgium 4yr, Austria 5yr
Most of Europe with negative bond yields. Switzerland has the most durations in negative territory and the most negative issuance 1 week @ -1.8%.
Who is in mild or HOT Water?
Mild – Countries with bond YIELD close to or above 5% and the duration range
Columbia 1yr-15yr; Greece 2yr-30yr; Iceland 2yr-10yr; India 3mo-30yr; Indonesia 6mo-30yr; Mexico 1m-30yr; Pakistan 3m-5yr; Peru 9yr-30yr; South Africa 3m; Sri Lanka 3m-2yr; Vietnam 1yr-10yr
Hot - Countries with close to above double digit bond YIELD and the duration range
Egypt 3mo-10yr; Pakistan 10yr-30yr; Russia 1w-25yr; South Africa 3yr-30yr; Sri Lanka 3yr-5yr; Turkey 1yr-10yr;
Three Mile Island Hot - Yield above 15%
Uganda 17-20% 3m-10yr; Ukraine 20% 1yr-2yr; Kenya 10-15% 3m-25yr; Brazil 15% 9mo-10yr; Argentina 15% 1yr;
Cut U A New 1 Hot – odds on global favorite to default
Venezuela 1yr @ 50%; 20yr @ 25%
In July 2014, the 1 yr was at 9.9% on Aug 26th 2015 it went to 66% (NOT A TYPO)
Hot and above probability of default calculated from 5yr CDS (on the countries I can chart at DB):
Venezuela 21%; Ukraine 15%; Brazil/Egypt 6%; Columbia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey all under 3%
Countries with inverted yield curves:
Venezuela, Ukraine, Turkey, Russia, Norway, Czech, Argentina
Mostly commodities producers with inverted curves.
Countries with negative bond yields all the way up to listed duration:
Switzerland 10yr, Sweden 2yr, Spain 6mo, Netherlands 5yr, Japan 3yr, Italy 3mo, Ireland 3yr, Germany 5yr, France 4yr, Finland 4yr, Denmark 3yr, Czech 4yr, Belgium 4yr, Austria 5yr
Most of Europe with negative bond yields. Switzerland has the most durations in negative territory and the most negative issuance 1 week @ -1.8%.
Who is in mild or HOT Water?
Mild – Countries with bond YIELD close to or above 5% and the duration range
Columbia 1yr-15yr; Greece 2yr-30yr; Iceland 2yr-10yr; India 3mo-30yr; Indonesia 6mo-30yr; Mexico 1m-30yr; Pakistan 3m-5yr; Peru 9yr-30yr; South Africa 3m; Sri Lanka 3m-2yr; Vietnam 1yr-10yr
Hot - Countries with close to above double digit bond YIELD and the duration range
Egypt 3mo-10yr; Pakistan 10yr-30yr; Russia 1w-25yr; South Africa 3yr-30yr; Sri Lanka 3yr-5yr; Turkey 1yr-10yr;
Three Mile Island Hot - Yield above 15%
Uganda 17-20% 3m-10yr; Ukraine 20% 1yr-2yr; Kenya 10-15% 3m-25yr; Brazil 15% 9mo-10yr; Argentina 15% 1yr;
Cut U A New 1 Hot – odds on global favorite to default
Venezuela 1yr @ 50%; 20yr @ 25%
In July 2014, the 1 yr was at 9.9% on Aug 26th 2015 it went to 66% (NOT A TYPO)
Hot and above probability of default calculated from 5yr CDS (on the countries I can chart at DB):
Venezuela 21%; Ukraine 15%; Brazil/Egypt 6%; Columbia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey all under 3%
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