2017 NFL Week 3 Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
RESULTS Week 2 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
HOU +5.5 13 @ 9 CIN - LOCK
TEN 37 @ 16 JAC +2
CLE 10 @ 24 BAL -7.5
BUF +7.5 3 @ 9 CAR
NE 36 @ 20 NO +6.5 - Over 56 is a LOCK.
ARZ 16 @ 13 IND +7.5
PHI 20 @ 27 KC -5.5 - LOCK
MIN 9 @ 26 PIT -5.5
CHI 7 @ 29 TB -6
MIA +4 19 @ 17 LAC
NYJ 20 @ 45 OAK -13.5 - LOCK
WAS +3 27 @ 20 LAR - LOCK
DAL -1.5 17 @ 42 DEN
SF 9 @ 12 SEA -13 - LOCK
GB +3 23 @ 34 ATL
DET 24 @ 10 NYG -3
How did we do? Not bad 10-2 until doing an 0-fer in the last four games. Our locks are looking good. Our friend 153972 aka FDR is on vacation, so we'll make this weeks picks.
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
YTD: 23-8 = 74% - Locks 9-1 = 90%
At the moment, we are #1 on the web (picking all 31 games ATS), won't last as Mendoza line awaits below.
Week 3 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, and make changes well in advance of kickoffs.
Home dogs: week 1 = 5; week 2 = 4; this week 10. We are biting on only 4 of them. Good teams don't lose 3 straight, this week SF, CLE, IND, CHI, NYJ, NO, NYG, LAC, CIN all looking to get off the schneid. Maybe some have a chance, not that any of them are good. TBD.
09/22 5:30AM EST EDIT: Apparently I misread the Thursday night game as Phony Niners away. In any event, our pick SF +3 stands and we have corrected the entry. Final LAR 41-39, we are 1-0.
9/24 5:30AM EST EDIT: We flopped on two games. MIA @ NYJ and HOU @ NE
LAR @ SF +3 - Rams got skinned. 9ers have faced two strong D's CAR and SEA. Do Lambs have one? Prime time divisional home dog "grounds" it out, take the points.
BAL -3 @ JAX - Last week real Jags showed up at home. Rebound? Raven blanked Gals on road. Question is will Jags score? AT LONDON - Under 39 is a LOCK.
CLE @ IND +2 - Luck-less Dolts played Zona OT tough, Skid marks fav 1st time since 2015 with 0-14 OTR ATS/SU. After home loss, IND 12-2 SU 10-4 ATS. Brissett NC State brisket home dog surprise, flyer on home dog.
PIT @ CHI +7.5 - The real Chairs got sat on last week in TB. Different team in den as dog 6-1 ATS. Riveters OTR 7+ fav 4-10 ATS. Too many points, rebound, take the home dog.
MIA @ NYJ +6.5 On left coast, Fish dampened Bolts; Yets strafed by Traitors. 0-2 div home dog rebound? Yets suck on both ends of ball and coast. @ NJ vs Fish 3-6-1 ATS. As div home dog ATS 8-3 and 6-1. MIA vs div ATS and SU 4-1, last Dec @ NJ 34-13 in must win game. Too many pts we flop to home dog.
DEN -2 @ BUF - Buncos lit up Pokes, stuffed son of Buzzi; Bufs hung tough in Lina, but could not run. What's not to like in hot hand with hard run D, and not a lot to cover?
HOU +14 @ NE - Pats ran it up on hapless Aint's; Texans choked Gals. Porous Pat D? Gronk? Lot o points? @ NE Razor's Edge: MMen as 10+ fav 23-1 SU LOCK, last 2 yrs 6-0 ATS; HOU is 0-5 ATS and SU with -24pt avg loss. Not this time, too many pts, we flop to road dog.
NO +6 @ CAR - Panther D 6 pts vs SF BUF. Cam- P? Defenseless Pats smoked Aint's: ATS OTR dog 12-5; vs div 5-1; as dog vs CAR 1-7 SU, ATS 4-0; last 4 decided by LT 5 pts.
TB +1 @ MIN - Vikes got Riveted, Bucs slapped Chairs, Bradford? Pirates in Pewter Pants 6-1 SU and ATS vs Norsemen, too much D, jumped on opening line road dog Bucs - LOCK
ATL @ DET +3.5 - At home Birds strafed Pack, Lions clawed G-men on road. ATL different out of coop, but this is a dome? Home Kats are 7-1 SU; 6-2 ATS. Birds struggled at Chitown, home dog D kitty litter surprise?
NYG @ PHI -3 - Gmen 13pts vs Dal, Det. PHI W @ Skins; hung tough @ KC; since 08 as fav vs Gmen: 7-3 SU/ATS; ATS/SU 15-5. Despite 0-2 div road dog, small price for LOCK.
SEA +3 @ TEN - Squawks struggling on O; Titans showed up vs Jags? Squawks have what it takes to handle MM and finally put some points on the board. SEA 3-15 ATS as Sept Road Fav, 2-10 SU. Still take the road dog.
KC -3 @ LAC - Chefs down Eagles; O #2 rush, pts, yds; 6-0 SU vs Bolts, 2 missed FG's from 2-0? As home dog ATS 6-12 vs div 1-7 ATS/SU; Rushing O 31st; D 26th. Chefs vs div away 10-1 ATS, cheap LOCK.
CIN @ GB -7 - Pack pecked by Dirty Birds, Nelson? 0-2 Clueless Lewis Gals only 9 pts, No O, 31st rush D. Gals 2-5 road ATS. Sept on tundra Pack 6-1-1 ATS. Mismatch, rebound and under priced LOCK.
OAK -2.5 @ WAS - Skins butted Rams on left coast, come home to face real team. Home Sept 2-9 ATS. Traitors downed Yets; OAK 3+ road fav 6-1 ATS; on road 10-3 ATS. Carr bombs #26 pass D. Give the points.
DAL -3 @ ARZ - Buncos bucked Pokes; Dolts tested Zona; Prescott P? Zona 4-0 SU vs Pokes; as home dog 10-4 ATS. Prescott airs it out vs #22 pass D; Cokeboys saddle Palmer with #30 ground game. Rebound with little to cover.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
RESULTS Week 2 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
HOU +5.5 13 @ 9 CIN - LOCK
TEN 37 @ 16 JAC +2
CLE 10 @ 24 BAL -7.5
BUF +7.5 3 @ 9 CAR
NE 36 @ 20 NO +6.5 - Over 56 is a LOCK.
ARZ 16 @ 13 IND +7.5
PHI 20 @ 27 KC -5.5 - LOCK
MIN 9 @ 26 PIT -5.5
CHI 7 @ 29 TB -6
MIA +4 19 @ 17 LAC
NYJ 20 @ 45 OAK -13.5 - LOCK
WAS +3 27 @ 20 LAR - LOCK
DAL -1.5 17 @ 42 DEN
SF 9 @ 12 SEA -13 - LOCK
GB +3 23 @ 34 ATL
DET 24 @ 10 NYG -3
How did we do? Not bad 10-2 until doing an 0-fer in the last four games. Our locks are looking good. Our friend 153972 aka FDR is on vacation, so we'll make this weeks picks.
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
YTD: 23-8 = 74% - Locks 9-1 = 90%
At the moment, we are #1 on the web (picking all 31 games ATS), won't last as Mendoza line awaits below.
Week 3 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, and make changes well in advance of kickoffs.
Home dogs: week 1 = 5; week 2 = 4; this week 10. We are biting on only 4 of them. Good teams don't lose 3 straight, this week SF, CLE, IND, CHI, NYJ, NO, NYG, LAC, CIN all looking to get off the schneid. Maybe some have a chance, not that any of them are good. TBD.
09/22 5:30AM EST EDIT: Apparently I misread the Thursday night game as Phony Niners away. In any event, our pick SF +3 stands and we have corrected the entry. Final LAR 41-39, we are 1-0.
9/24 5:30AM EST EDIT: We flopped on two games. MIA @ NYJ and HOU @ NE
LAR @ SF +3 - Rams got skinned. 9ers have faced two strong D's CAR and SEA. Do Lambs have one? Prime time divisional home dog "grounds" it out, take the points.
BAL -3 @ JAX - Last week real Jags showed up at home. Rebound? Raven blanked Gals on road. Question is will Jags score? AT LONDON - Under 39 is a LOCK.
CLE @ IND +2 - Luck-less Dolts played Zona OT tough, Skid marks fav 1st time since 2015 with 0-14 OTR ATS/SU. After home loss, IND 12-2 SU 10-4 ATS. Brissett NC State brisket home dog surprise, flyer on home dog.
PIT @ CHI +7.5 - The real Chairs got sat on last week in TB. Different team in den as dog 6-1 ATS. Riveters OTR 7+ fav 4-10 ATS. Too many points, rebound, take the home dog.
MIA @ NYJ +6.5 On left coast, Fish dampened Bolts; Yets strafed by Traitors. 0-2 div home dog rebound? Yets suck on both ends of ball and coast. @ NJ vs Fish 3-6-1 ATS. As div home dog ATS 8-3 and 6-1. MIA vs div ATS and SU 4-1, last Dec @ NJ 34-13 in must win game. Too many pts we flop to home dog.
DEN -2 @ BUF - Buncos lit up Pokes, stuffed son of Buzzi; Bufs hung tough in Lina, but could not run. What's not to like in hot hand with hard run D, and not a lot to cover?
HOU +14 @ NE - Pats ran it up on hapless Aint's; Texans choked Gals. Porous Pat D? Gronk? Lot o points? @ NE Razor's Edge: MMen as 10+ fav 23-1 SU LOCK, last 2 yrs 6-0 ATS; HOU is 0-5 ATS and SU with -24pt avg loss. Not this time, too many pts, we flop to road dog.
NO +6 @ CAR - Panther D 6 pts vs SF BUF. Cam- P? Defenseless Pats smoked Aint's: ATS OTR dog 12-5; vs div 5-1; as dog vs CAR 1-7 SU, ATS 4-0; last 4 decided by LT 5 pts.
TB +1 @ MIN - Vikes got Riveted, Bucs slapped Chairs, Bradford? Pirates in Pewter Pants 6-1 SU and ATS vs Norsemen, too much D, jumped on opening line road dog Bucs - LOCK
ATL @ DET +3.5 - At home Birds strafed Pack, Lions clawed G-men on road. ATL different out of coop, but this is a dome? Home Kats are 7-1 SU; 6-2 ATS. Birds struggled at Chitown, home dog D kitty litter surprise?
NYG @ PHI -3 - Gmen 13pts vs Dal, Det. PHI W @ Skins; hung tough @ KC; since 08 as fav vs Gmen: 7-3 SU/ATS; ATS/SU 15-5. Despite 0-2 div road dog, small price for LOCK.
SEA +3 @ TEN - Squawks struggling on O; Titans showed up vs Jags? Squawks have what it takes to handle MM and finally put some points on the board. SEA 3-15 ATS as Sept Road Fav, 2-10 SU. Still take the road dog.
KC -3 @ LAC - Chefs down Eagles; O #2 rush, pts, yds; 6-0 SU vs Bolts, 2 missed FG's from 2-0? As home dog ATS 6-12 vs div 1-7 ATS/SU; Rushing O 31st; D 26th. Chefs vs div away 10-1 ATS, cheap LOCK.
CIN @ GB -7 - Pack pecked by Dirty Birds, Nelson? 0-2 Clueless Lewis Gals only 9 pts, No O, 31st rush D. Gals 2-5 road ATS. Sept on tundra Pack 6-1-1 ATS. Mismatch, rebound and under priced LOCK.
OAK -2.5 @ WAS - Skins butted Rams on left coast, come home to face real team. Home Sept 2-9 ATS. Traitors downed Yets; OAK 3+ road fav 6-1 ATS; on road 10-3 ATS. Carr bombs #26 pass D. Give the points.
DAL -3 @ ARZ - Buncos bucked Pokes; Dolts tested Zona; Prescott P? Zona 4-0 SU vs Pokes; as home dog 10-4 ATS. Prescott airs it out vs #22 pass D; Cokeboys saddle Palmer with #30 ground game. Rebound with little to cover.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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