Mandalay Bay Massacre: The Lone Gunman?
Following up on yesterday's post, we continue with our coverage of the tragic events in Las Vegas.
Over at a financial forum... Some friends commented regarding Sunday's massacre.
As to the former, I never made that conclusion nor wrote that. I commented on the convenience of appearances, viz. the temporal proximity of the Muslim holiday and Vegas Strip shooting events from which one can draw differing conclusions.
Over at a financial forum... Some friends commented regarding Sunday's massacre.
P - "Not sure why you are so gung-ho to tie it into Muslims. American's are perfectly capable of being psychos without anyone's help."The latter is true, we don't need any help, and that's part of the point. It looks like an attempt on the part of Israeli radio and press to be a false flag.
As to the former, I never made that conclusion nor wrote that. I commented on the convenience of appearances, viz. the temporal proximity of the Muslim holiday and Vegas Strip shooting events from which one can draw differing conclusions.
1020 - "It is in the best interest of Las Vegas that this incident be of a domestic nature….even trump knows that…."
Regardless of how far fetched, a possibility and example of counter intuitive or contrarian thinking. Blue-skying requires thinking outside of the box, because sometimes there are blue roses, thorns and all.
What's The Story?
The media outlets can't seem to get the story straight, as I clearly evidenced in yesterday's post. This just in, Oswald, or whatever they are calling him, police initially had his date of birth listed as October 29,1968, so he was reported to be 49. Photos of this reported sex offenders booking were even circulated on social media. All fake news and simple SNAFU, which has since been corrected.
BDC - "I'll count "1020's comment above" in that group. Sheesh the garbage I have to read on this board."See our comment above. Over attenuation to the frequency can squelch otherwise viable signals or ideas. As opposed to the ignore button, which is used by ignoramuses only, one must keep the filters off and channels open. As old 49er Sourdough used to say... sometimes we must sift through a whole lotta sh*t to find a nugget.
P - "Terror/1020 – I don't see any evidence that ISIS was involved."At this point, other than what appear to be false flags, I don't either so lets really put the pedal to the metal.
What's The Story?
The media outlets can't seem to get the story straight, as I clearly evidenced in yesterday's post. This just in, Oswald, or whatever they are calling him, police initially had his date of birth listed as October 29,1968, so he was reported to be 49. Photos of this reported sex offenders booking were even circulated on social media. All fake news and simple SNAFU, which has since been corrected.
Still not cleared up.... according to police, Paddock was 64 and is now deceased. Early reports indicated that the shooter was taken down after engaging with police. However, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo said that Paddock had killed himself, and was dead when police entered his hotel room.
Authorities have not reported finding a note of any kind and a potential motive is unclear at this time. See below, the Star reports, there may have been a note.
Police and MSM reports initially indicated 10 weapons were found at the scene. In the last 48 hours those numbers have been augmented to 23 weapons at the scene, and a total of 47 weapons which includes those found at two of the shooters homes. More SNAFU?
Paddock has been reported as a well to do RE millionaire who played $100 video poker hands. So why, what's his motivation?
So far, law enforcement have suggested debts (RE and gambling), a recent failed relationship, depression (recent prescription for valium), and his family history (mental condition) may have contributed to his motivation.
Above, while interviewed Paddock's brother indicated that their father Benjamin, had been an infamous bank robber on the FBI's Top Ten most wanted list in 1977.
Paddock's live in companion for the last 3 years Marylou Danley, has returned from the Philippines, where Paddock just wired $100K to an account the week before the shooting.
It is reported that a search of Paddock's home revealed the explosive Tannerite - which is used to make explosive targets for target practice. The fertilizer ammonium nitrate - which can be used to make bombs - was found in Paddock's car. Moving West...
Authorities have not reported finding a note of any kind and a potential motive is unclear at this time. See below, the Star reports, there may have been a note.
Police and MSM reports initially indicated 10 weapons were found at the scene. In the last 48 hours those numbers have been augmented to 23 weapons at the scene, and a total of 47 weapons which includes those found at two of the shooters homes. More SNAFU?
Paddock has been reported as a well to do RE millionaire who played $100 video poker hands. So why, what's his motivation?
So far, law enforcement have suggested debts (RE and gambling), a recent failed relationship, depression (recent prescription for valium), and his family history (mental condition) may have contributed to his motivation.
Above, while interviewed Paddock's brother indicated that their father Benjamin, had been an infamous bank robber on the FBI's Top Ten most wanted list in 1977.
Paddock's live in companion for the last 3 years Marylou Danley, has returned from the Philippines, where Paddock just wired $100K to an account the week before the shooting.
It is reported that a search of Paddock's home revealed the explosive Tannerite - which is used to make explosive targets for target practice. The fertilizer ammonium nitrate - which can be used to make bombs - was found in Paddock's car. Moving West...
Lone Gunman?
Vegas news KTNV citing police sources reported:
It is reported that Paddock checked in with 10 bags which were carted to his room. Would that be enough for the stands, guns, video equipment and more importantly, thousands of rounds?
The Mandalay Bay was booked months in advance, this operation took some planning and aforethought, premeditation. Police originally stated two suspects, not one and according to eye witness accounts in this detailed video, "multiple shooters, no doubt".
There were reports of shooters in multiple hotels, potentially as a result of the confusion, sound deflection and panicked callers?
"shooter had 8 guns + 2 platforms set up to shoot from + cameras set up to see police arriving"How does a 64 year old manage to single-handedly get all of the above, through a web of cameras and security systems that make the NSA look minor league? Trust me, you deal an SBD in a casino elevator, and they know it.
It is reported that Paddock checked in with 10 bags which were carted to his room. Would that be enough for the stands, guns, video equipment and more importantly, thousands of rounds?
The Mandalay Bay was booked months in advance, this operation took some planning and aforethought, premeditation. Police originally stated two suspects, not one and according to eye witness accounts in this detailed video, "multiple shooters, no doubt".
There were reports of shooters in multiple hotels, potentially as a result of the confusion, sound deflection and panicked callers?
Night Vision?
Every single MSM photo of the latter day Paddock has his eyes shut and he is not wearing glasses. Light sensitive? His last FAA pilots check up was in Feb 2008. To maintain the license required 20/40 or better in each eye separately (Snellen equivalent), with or without correction, as measured at 16 inches.
Paddock's license states: “MUST HAVE AVAILABLE GLASSES FOR NEAR VISION.” At the least, this indicates he had developed presbyopia at 54 which progressively worsened in the last ten years. Take aim out of a darkened room at night, pupil dilation results in a narrow depth of field and potential vision blur at near and far. Not exactly sniper material, but spraying down on a densely packed crowd, another story.
How Many Shots?
Every single MSM photo of the latter day Paddock has his eyes shut and he is not wearing glasses. Light sensitive? His last FAA pilots check up was in Feb 2008. To maintain the license required 20/40 or better in each eye separately (Snellen equivalent), with or without correction, as measured at 16 inches.
Paddock's license states: “MUST HAVE AVAILABLE GLASSES FOR NEAR VISION.” At the least, this indicates he had developed presbyopia at 54 which progressively worsened in the last ten years. Take aim out of a darkened room at night, pupil dilation results in a narrow depth of field and potential vision blur at near and far. Not exactly sniper material, but spraying down on a densely packed crowd, another story.
How Many Shots?
The gunman used rifles which appear to have been in automatic mode or modified for such, from a vantage point on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Casino.
From the audio and eye witness reports at the scene, at least one of the weapons had to be Class III fully automatic, bump stock, gat crank or sear modified to be fully automatic, as in not a single shot or semi auto. From this compilation video at 1:12, clearly at least one automatic weapon is being fired.
Further analysis of audio recordings indicate that although the shooter was able to fire 90 shots in 10 seconds, the sequence of firing indicates a less than fully automatic weapon.
In contrast to that analysis of evidence, John Cohen, ABC News Consultant and a former Department of Homeland Security undersecretary who previously worked as a police officer, said that recordings of the shooting suggest that the shooter used an automatic weapon.
Semi or Auto?
It has been reported that the shooter, rather than utilize a gat crank, or sear modification, had one or two bump stocks, which allow a semi automatic to be used in full automatic mode.
Some of the weapons found were reported as being .223 and .308 caliber. In a single shot scenario, if the shooter knows how to dope the wind, then a .223 caliber could be effective up to 300m (984ft).
The effectiveness involves velocity, bullet weight, gravity and wind shear factors which effect flight stability, tumble and yaw, creating havoc for a standard .223 50-55 grain payload at that extended range.
Twenty three weapons and two tripod stands were situated on the 32nd story of the Mandalay Bay, elevated at 320 feet and over 365m (1200ft) from the concert venue.
A Silver Lining?
First, the shooter was no sniper. Second, due to the distance involved, perhaps their choice of weapons was less than "effective". Quoted effective ranges are estimates which can be influenced by cartridge, barrel length, positioning, wind and shooter accuracy.
An AR-15 (semi auto version of M16) used at this range in a downward random spray fashion would have an ample 550m (1804ft) range.
The automatic M16's range of 800m (2624ft) w/optics would also have sufficed. A derivative of the AR-15 with similar range would be the FN-15.
A 5.56×45mm NATO 62 grain (based on the the .223 Remington) such as a semi automatic SAM-R (Afghan - Irai war) the range would have been the same as the AR.
An M4 carbine (select) variant such as the DDM4 would pack a .223 cartridge with range of 300m (984ft), coming up a bit short of the target range.
Did the shooter utilize any of these weapons?
A .308 caliber battle rifle and the heavier payload it delivers, matches the M16 range. However, the shooter used a semi, automatic or modification.
The M14, MK14 are .308 caliber intermediate cartridge automatic weapons with a range of 460m (1509ft).
An AK-47 utilizes a 7.62×39mm cartridge (.311 bullet) with a range of 350M (1148ft), at the fringe of the target range.
However, in the videos the "firecracker" sounds resonate similar to a lighter cartridge.
To be clear, select fire weapons fire an intermediate cartridge, greater power than a pistol, less than a battle rifle. Battle rifles are rifles that fire full power rounds, and many are not select fire, because select fire with a full power round basically blows.
What's the point with all the ballistics and effective ranges? Even with an inaccurate shooter spraying from a stand, and possibly compounding inaccuracy with a two handed bump stock....
had a SAM-R, M-16 or .308 select fire weapon been used, with 22K present in the range, the growing toll of 60 dead, 526 injured, dozens hospitalized and 31 still in critical condition, could have been much, much higher.
How many were killed or injured as a result of the trampling in the stampede to escape versus gunshot wounds, remains to be seen. Results from crime scene evidence and forensic tests should reveal what kinds of weapons and ammunition the shooter was using. Until such time, much is left to speculation.
Hot off the press?
A law enforcement source said that they found at least one fully automatic rifle in the shooters room, which included AR-15 style rifles and AK-47 style rifles; four Daniel Defense DDM4 rifles and three FN-15s. Whether these were discharged or not, remains to be seen.
Paddock's brother has also indicated that his brother was "NOT an avid gun guy"? Below, Paddock's post suicide corpse as found on the scene. Note the position of the hand gun and what appear to be fresh cartridges and discharged casings.
From the audio and eye witness reports at the scene, at least one of the weapons had to be Class III fully automatic, bump stock, gat crank or sear modified to be fully automatic, as in not a single shot or semi auto. From this compilation video at 1:12, clearly at least one automatic weapon is being fired.
Further analysis of audio recordings indicate that although the shooter was able to fire 90 shots in 10 seconds, the sequence of firing indicates a less than fully automatic weapon.
In contrast to that analysis of evidence, John Cohen, ABC News Consultant and a former Department of Homeland Security undersecretary who previously worked as a police officer, said that recordings of the shooting suggest that the shooter used an automatic weapon.
"Listening to the video, it sounds like the weapons were fully automatic."It is reported that the shootings lasted 72 minutes. The audio on this single contiguous video captures at least three separate firing sequences. Between the weapons report and echo, the cartridge sounds like a .223 caliber, more on that later.
Semi or Auto?
It has been reported that the shooter, rather than utilize a gat crank, or sear modification, had one or two bump stocks, which allow a semi automatic to be used in full automatic mode.
A bump-stock, or "slide fire", harnesses a rifle's recoil. It replaces the weapon's stock, which is held against the shoulder, and allows the rest of the rifle to slide back and forward with every shot despite having no mechanical parts or springs. The motion makes the trigger collide with, or bump, the shooter's finger as long as they apply forward pressure with the non-shooting hand and rearward pressure with the shooting hand. - BBCRange?
Some of the weapons found were reported as being .223 and .308 caliber. In a single shot scenario, if the shooter knows how to dope the wind, then a .223 caliber could be effective up to 300m (984ft).
The effectiveness involves velocity, bullet weight, gravity and wind shear factors which effect flight stability, tumble and yaw, creating havoc for a standard .223 50-55 grain payload at that extended range.
Twenty three weapons and two tripod stands were situated on the 32nd story of the Mandalay Bay, elevated at 320 feet and over 365m (1200ft) from the concert venue.
A Silver Lining?
First, the shooter was no sniper. Second, due to the distance involved, perhaps their choice of weapons was less than "effective". Quoted effective ranges are estimates which can be influenced by cartridge, barrel length, positioning, wind and shooter accuracy.
An AR-15 (semi auto version of M16) used at this range in a downward random spray fashion would have an ample 550m (1804ft) range.
The automatic M16's range of 800m (2624ft) w/optics would also have sufficed. A derivative of the AR-15 with similar range would be the FN-15.
A 5.56×45mm NATO 62 grain (based on the the .223 Remington) such as a semi automatic SAM-R (Afghan - Irai war) the range would have been the same as the AR.
An M4 carbine (select) variant such as the DDM4 would pack a .223 cartridge with range of 300m (984ft), coming up a bit short of the target range.
Did the shooter utilize any of these weapons?
A .308 caliber battle rifle and the heavier payload it delivers, matches the M16 range. However, the shooter used a semi, automatic or modification.
The M14, MK14 are .308 caliber intermediate cartridge automatic weapons with a range of 460m (1509ft).
An AK-47 utilizes a 7.62×39mm cartridge (.311 bullet) with a range of 350M (1148ft), at the fringe of the target range.
However, in the videos the "firecracker" sounds resonate similar to a lighter cartridge.
To be clear, select fire weapons fire an intermediate cartridge, greater power than a pistol, less than a battle rifle. Battle rifles are rifles that fire full power rounds, and many are not select fire, because select fire with a full power round basically blows.
What's the point with all the ballistics and effective ranges? Even with an inaccurate shooter spraying from a stand, and possibly compounding inaccuracy with a two handed bump stock....
had a SAM-R, M-16 or .308 select fire weapon been used, with 22K present in the range, the growing toll of 60 dead, 526 injured, dozens hospitalized and 31 still in critical condition, could have been much, much higher.
How many were killed or injured as a result of the trampling in the stampede to escape versus gunshot wounds, remains to be seen. Results from crime scene evidence and forensic tests should reveal what kinds of weapons and ammunition the shooter was using. Until such time, much is left to speculation.
Hot off the press?
A law enforcement source said that they found at least one fully automatic rifle in the shooters room, which included AR-15 style rifles and AK-47 style rifles; four Daniel Defense DDM4 rifles and three FN-15s. Whether these were discharged or not, remains to be seen.
Paddock's brother has also indicated that his brother was "NOT an avid gun guy"? Below, Paddock's post suicide corpse as found on the scene. Note the position of the hand gun and what appear to be fresh cartridges and discharged casings.
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