2017 NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
For certain individuals (FDR) picking SU, Master Line-Po's Zen moment...
In 2016, picking the ATS favorite to win SU = .636; the dog = .364; road fav .583; home dog .417; home fav .661; road dog .339
In 2017, picking the ATS favorite to win SU = .609; the dog = .391; road fav .560; home dog .440; home fav .641; road dog .359 Just sayin.
In 2017, ATS = favorites .421; dogs .579; home dog .600; road fav .400; home fav .448; road dog .552
RESULTS Week 4 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
CHI +7.5 14 @ 35 GB
NO PK 20 @ 0 MIA
CAR +9.5 33 @ 30 NE
LAR 35 @ 30 DAL -6
DET +2.5 14 @ 7 MIN
TEN -1 14 @ 57 HOU
JAX -3 20 @ 23 NYJ
CIN 31 @ 7 CLE +3.5
PIT 26 @ 9 BAL +3
BUF 23 @ 17 ATL -8
NYG +6 23 @ 25 TB
PHI +2.5 26 @ 24 LAC - LOCK
SF +7.5 15 @ 18 ARZ - LOCK
OAK 10 @ 16 DEN PK - LOCK
IND +13.5 18 @ 46 SEA
WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC - LOCK. O/U 49.5 Under LOCK. - PUSH
How did we do? Overall, as gravity pulled us down the drain we sucked at 8-8 again. Late games pulled us back up to another week wallowing in mediocrity.
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre kickoff, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
Week 3: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 2-4 = 33%
Week 4: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 5-0 = 100%
YTD: 39-24 = 62% - Locks 16-5 = 76%
On the bright side, our locks have been berry berry good to us, as we are now #1 on the web (cherry picking games). Despite another horrible 8-8 week we are tied for #2 on the web (picking all games ATS). Won't last as gravitation to the mean has taken over.
Week 5 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number. BYE: ATL, DEN, NO, WAS
Update Sunday 12:45PM EST - last second line changes.
Below TNF pick, remainder to come. As always, I reserve the right to take the opening line and make changes well in advance of the SUNDAY 13:00 EST kickoffs.
Chefs last perfect team? Not so fast Joe, good teams don't lose 4 straight? How about 5? Still perfect SF, CLE, NYG, LAC all looking to get off the schneid. Last week, both SF and NYG were last second victims, this week not so much, we think.
NE -4 @ TB - In TB, Bucs pirated Gmen. In Foxboro, Panthers clawed Pats. If not for last second W vs Hou, now 0-3 @ home? What Belichik D? Worst ever: 128pts, 1827yds, 32pts + 457yds per game. Pass O TB#3, NE#1; Pass D TB#31, NE#32. NE now -6, Pats won't lose 2nd straight vs #31 pass D. Scattered thunderstorms tonight, still OVER 54.5 looks good, but not for certain.
LAC +4 @ NYG - Eagles strafed Bolts in LA. Gmen pirated in Tampa. Neither team can run or defend it. Eli vs Rivers. Last 2gms Bolts gashed for 200yds avg, -4TO. 3 of Bolts L's by 3, 2, 2. ATS Road Bolts: as 0 to 3pt dog 0-4-1, 2-13 SU. Bolts look ahead to Traitors? Jersey Gmen will not start 0-5, road Bolts remain only perfect team.
BUF +3.5 @ CIN - Away: Gals rubbed in Stains; Bison dowsed Hotlanta. Buf last 2 W's +5TO. Red hot Bison and getting points vs Gals? Bison 5-1 ATS @ Gals. O/U 39 says D battle, 35+ carries wins it with 1TO. Road dog LOCK; Under 39.5 LOCK.
NYJ +2.5 @ CLE - Jersey Jets spotted Jags; Road Gals butt flossed Browns. Yets, 2 game W streak? now +1; 4-1 ATS vs Stains. Jets look past skid marks to Pats, Stains run rock to get off schneid. ATS CLE home fav 8-19-1. Under 40 is the LOCK.
JAX @ PIT -7 - Road Riveters really skunked Poes. Both these teams ripped the Ravens in consecutive weeks. Jags 2 W's +7TO's; 2L's -1TO, away 4-1 ATS, run D#32; Bell tolls? PIT looks past Jags to Chefs? Jags 175yds rush @ Jets, and lost? Pass O#30. Pit run D#23 stuffs box with 4-6 to hold Jags #2 run and blitz Bortles, Sacks D Pit 15, Jax 18; O Jax 3, Pit 7.
TEN +1.5 @ MIA - Mariota? Tuxes 5TO 43pt loss at Texans; Aint's goose egged Fish-n-Chips in London. Last 2 (NYJ, NO) Fish L totals: 6pts, 88yds rush, 3TO's. 2 Ten W's 187 yds avg rush; Mia run O#30. Porous pass D's. 4 wk fish fry: Mia to LA to NY to Lon to Mia.
SF +2.5 @ IND - Away:Luckless Dolts bombed by Squawks, 9ers robbed in Zona. Getting points at Dolts is like Brownies as favs. IND Pass O#29 D#29; Run O#26. What can they do? ATS 9ers 5-1; post SEA favs 14-31. 9ers hold down Brisket to get off schneid. Under 45?
ARZ +6.5 @ PHI - Home Cards robbed 9ers; Road Steaks cheesed Bolts. Zona Pass O#2 vs Cheesy Pass D#30. Last 2 Phi W's 3pts vs NYG; 2 LAC, TOM +2, rush avg 200yds. Cards run D#10 88yds, ATS early EST dog 8-3; 5-0-1 ATS vs Philly, with stouter D too many points.
CAR +3 @ DET - Road Cats: clawed Pats; gored Vikes. TO diff, DET +9; CAR -5. Lions W's: ARZ, MIN both w +3TO; beat NYG #32, ARZ #31 run game. Panthers D#7 run and pass, #13 rush O grinds it out, Cam gets yds vs #21 Pass D. Panthers away 5-1 ATS. 2 straight home losses for Motor City Kitties?
SEA @ LAR PK - Squawks dumped on Dolts in nest; Road Rams butted Pokes. Porous run D's. ATS: SEA div road dog 4-0-1; @ Rams 1-6. Key: Rams hold rock with Gurley man. LA now -2, open pick em? LOCK.
BAL @ OAK PK - Carr, Yanda Out. Home Poes humbled by Riveters; Traitors were Denver omelettes. Porous Run D's. 1st 2 W's: BAL D 10TO's; OAK O Zero. Last 2 both L's: OAK O 20pts; 4TO's; total rush 56yds. BAL O 16pts; 6TO's; opp rush +165yd avg. ATS Ravens on PST 2-8. Opened at PK? -2.5 and under a LOCK
GB +3 @ DAL - Montgomery? Bakhtiari? Bulaga? Daniels? Son of Buzzi? Tundra Pack chaired 4TO Bears TNF; 2TO Pokes looked past Rams to playoff rematch. Both O-lines hurt. Both D losses opp rush +165yds; GB#28 ground game 74yds avg. Sacks: O Dal 6, GB 15; D Dal 12; GB 10. Long time for Mr. Rodgers to prep. B2B L's in Big D? Vendetta?
KC @ HOU +2 - @ Home: Chefs shaved Skins MNF short week; stout Tex D soiled Tuxes w/5 TO's. KC +5 TO diff, on road 5-0 ATS. Soft D? Yds#26, Run#20, Pass#25, Key: can Chefs #1 164yds avg run on Texans D 75yds avg last 3? Playoff team as home dog in prime time?
MIN @ CHI +3.5 - Cook Out. Bradford? Trubisky In? Vikes 3TO's vs DET, Chairs 4TO's on Tundra, hibernating since Thu. ATS Bears in den: 6-1; vs Vikes 7-2. Vikes look past Bears to Pack, home team SU 24-4, take the div home dog in prime time.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
For certain individuals (FDR) picking SU, Master Line-Po's Zen moment...
In 2016, picking the ATS favorite to win SU = .636; the dog = .364; road fav .583; home dog .417; home fav .661; road dog .339
In 2017, picking the ATS favorite to win SU = .609; the dog = .391; road fav .560; home dog .440; home fav .641; road dog .359 Just sayin.
RESULTS Week 4 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
CHI +7.5 14 @ 35 GB
NO PK 20 @ 0 MIA
CAR +9.5 33 @ 30 NE
LAR 35 @ 30 DAL -6
DET +2.5 14 @ 7 MIN
TEN -1 14 @ 57 HOU
JAX -3 20 @ 23 NYJ
CIN 31 @ 7 CLE +3.5
PIT 26 @ 9 BAL +3
BUF 23 @ 17 ATL -8
NYG +6 23 @ 25 TB
PHI +2.5 26 @ 24 LAC - LOCK
SF +7.5 15 @ 18 ARZ - LOCK
OAK 10 @ 16 DEN PK - LOCK
IND +13.5 18 @ 46 SEA
WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC - LOCK. O/U 49.5 Under LOCK. - PUSH
How did we do? Overall, as gravity pulled us down the drain we sucked at 8-8 again. Late games pulled us back up to another week wallowing in mediocrity.
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre kickoff, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
Week 3: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 2-4 = 33%
Week 4: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 5-0 = 100%
YTD: 39-24 = 62% - Locks 16-5 = 76%
On the bright side, our locks have been berry berry good to us, as we are now #1 on the web (cherry picking games). Despite another horrible 8-8 week we are tied for #2 on the web (picking all games ATS). Won't last as gravitation to the mean has taken over.
Week 5 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number. BYE: ATL, DEN, NO, WAS
Update Sunday 12:45PM EST - last second line changes.
Below TNF pick, remainder to come. As always, I reserve the right to take the opening line and make changes well in advance of the SUNDAY 13:00 EST kickoffs.
Chefs last perfect team? Not so fast Joe, good teams don't lose 4 straight? How about 5? Still perfect SF, CLE, NYG, LAC all looking to get off the schneid. Last week, both SF and NYG were last second victims, this week not so much, we think.
NE -4 @ TB - In TB, Bucs pirated Gmen. In Foxboro, Panthers clawed Pats. If not for last second W vs Hou, now 0-3 @ home? What Belichik D? Worst ever: 128pts, 1827yds, 32pts + 457yds per game. Pass O TB#3, NE#1; Pass D TB#31, NE#32. NE now -6, Pats won't lose 2nd straight vs #31 pass D. Scattered thunderstorms tonight, still OVER 54.5 looks good, but not for certain.
LAC +4 @ NYG - Eagles strafed Bolts in LA. Gmen pirated in Tampa. Neither team can run or defend it. Eli vs Rivers. Last 2gms Bolts gashed for 200yds avg, -4TO. 3 of Bolts L's by 3, 2, 2. ATS Road Bolts: as 0 to 3pt dog 0-4-1, 2-13 SU. Bolts look ahead to Traitors? Jersey Gmen will not start 0-5, road Bolts remain only perfect team.
BUF +3.5 @ CIN - Away: Gals rubbed in Stains; Bison dowsed Hotlanta. Buf last 2 W's +5TO. Red hot Bison and getting points vs Gals? Bison 5-1 ATS @ Gals. O/U 39 says D battle, 35+ carries wins it with 1TO. Road dog LOCK; Under 39.5 LOCK.
NYJ +2.5 @ CLE - Jersey Jets spotted Jags; Road Gals butt flossed Browns. Yets, 2 game W streak? now +1; 4-1 ATS vs Stains. Jets look past skid marks to Pats, Stains run rock to get off schneid. ATS CLE home fav 8-19-1. Under 40 is the LOCK.
JAX @ PIT -7 - Road Riveters really skunked Poes. Both these teams ripped the Ravens in consecutive weeks. Jags 2 W's +7TO's; 2L's -1TO, away 4-1 ATS, run D#32; Bell tolls? PIT looks past Jags to Chefs? Jags 175yds rush @ Jets, and lost? Pass O#30. Pit run D#23 stuffs box with 4-6 to hold Jags #2 run and blitz Bortles, Sacks D Pit 15, Jax 18; O Jax 3, Pit 7.
TEN +1.5 @ MIA - Mariota? Tuxes 5TO 43pt loss at Texans; Aint's goose egged Fish-n-Chips in London. Last 2 (NYJ, NO) Fish L totals: 6pts, 88yds rush, 3TO's. 2 Ten W's 187 yds avg rush; Mia run O#30. Porous pass D's. 4 wk fish fry: Mia to LA to NY to Lon to Mia.
SF +2.5 @ IND - Away:Luckless Dolts bombed by Squawks, 9ers robbed in Zona. Getting points at Dolts is like Brownies as favs. IND Pass O#29 D#29; Run O#26. What can they do? ATS 9ers 5-1; post SEA favs 14-31. 9ers hold down Brisket to get off schneid. Under 45?
ARZ +6.5 @ PHI - Home Cards robbed 9ers; Road Steaks cheesed Bolts. Zona Pass O#2 vs Cheesy Pass D#30. Last 2 Phi W's 3pts vs NYG; 2 LAC, TOM +2, rush avg 200yds. Cards run D#10 88yds, ATS early EST dog 8-3; 5-0-1 ATS vs Philly, with stouter D too many points.
CAR +3 @ DET - Road Cats: clawed Pats; gored Vikes. TO diff, DET +9; CAR -5. Lions W's: ARZ, MIN both w +3TO; beat NYG #32, ARZ #31 run game. Panthers D#7 run and pass, #13 rush O grinds it out, Cam gets yds vs #21 Pass D. Panthers away 5-1 ATS. 2 straight home losses for Motor City Kitties?
SEA @ LAR PK - Squawks dumped on Dolts in nest; Road Rams butted Pokes. Porous run D's. ATS: SEA div road dog 4-0-1; @ Rams 1-6. Key: Rams hold rock with Gurley man. LA now -2, open pick em? LOCK.
BAL @ OAK PK - Carr, Yanda Out. Home Poes humbled by Riveters; Traitors were Denver omelettes. Porous Run D's. 1st 2 W's: BAL D 10TO's; OAK O Zero. Last 2 both L's: OAK O 20pts; 4TO's; total rush 56yds. BAL O 16pts; 6TO's; opp rush +165yd avg. ATS Ravens on PST 2-8. Opened at PK? -2.5 and under a LOCK
GB +3 @ DAL - Montgomery? Bakhtiari? Bulaga? Daniels? Son of Buzzi? Tundra Pack chaired 4TO Bears TNF; 2TO Pokes looked past Rams to playoff rematch. Both O-lines hurt. Both D losses opp rush +165yds; GB#28 ground game 74yds avg. Sacks: O Dal 6, GB 15; D Dal 12; GB 10. Long time for Mr. Rodgers to prep. B2B L's in Big D? Vendetta?
KC @ HOU +2 - @ Home: Chefs shaved Skins MNF short week; stout Tex D soiled Tuxes w/5 TO's. KC +5 TO diff, on road 5-0 ATS. Soft D? Yds#26, Run#20, Pass#25, Key: can Chefs #1 164yds avg run on Texans D 75yds avg last 3? Playoff team as home dog in prime time?
MIN @ CHI +3.5 - Cook Out. Bradford? Trubisky In? Vikes 3TO's vs DET, Chairs 4TO's on Tundra, hibernating since Thu. ATS Bears in den: 6-1; vs Vikes 7-2. Vikes look past Bears to Pack, home team SU 24-4, take the div home dog in prime time.
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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