2017 NFL Week 4 Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
RESULTS Week 3 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
LAR 41 @ 39 SF +3
BAL -3 7 @ 44 JAX - LOCK
CLE 28 @ 31 IND +2
PIT 17 @ 23 CHI +7.5
MIA 6 @ 20 NYJ +6.5
DEN -2 16 @ 26 BUF
HOU +14 33 @ 36 NE - NE SU LOCK
NO +6 34 @ 13 CAR
TB +1 17 @ 34 MIN - LOCK
ATL 30 @ 26 DET +3.5
NYG 24 @ 27 PHI -3 - LOCK Caught this 0.5 advance line error just prior to WK9 - PUSH
SEA +3 27 @ 33 TEN
KC -3 24 @ 10 LAC - LOCK
CIN 24 @ 27 GB -7 - LOCK
OAK -2.5 10 @ 27 WAS
DAL -3 28 @ 17 ARZ
How did we do? As gravity pulled us down the drain we sucked. Got screwed by half pt on PHI and DET, while SEA gambled and eschewed a late FG on 4th down.
Could have been 11-5, that's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre kickoff, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
Week 3: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 2-4 = 33%
YTD: 31-16 = 66% - Locks 11-5 = 69%
At the moment, despite a horrible week we are still #1 on the web (picking all 47 games ATS). Technically tied at #1 with Frank Schwab at Yahoo who has picked 46 games. Won't last as gravitation to the mean has taken over. Technically Mendoza line is .200.
Week 4 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number.
As always, I reserve the right to take the opening line and make changes well in advance of the SUNDAY 13:00 EST kickoffs.
Good teams don't lose 3 straight? How about 4? Still perfect SF, CLE, NYG, LAC, CIN all looking to get off the schneid. Perhaps only LAC and CLE will remain 0-4? TBD.
Updated 3PM EST Saturday - remaining 15 picks added.
Updated 8AM EST Sunday - deleted ATL LOCK, added Under 49.5 LOCK MNF
CHI +7.5 @ GB In den Bears mauled Riveter's; Stuffers struggled for OT home W vs Gals. GB on frozen tundra vs Chairs: last 7W's by avg 19pts; sounds good? Last 4 at home vs Bears are 2-2 SU? Too many divisional rival road dog points on prime time TV.
NO PK @ MIA - Away: Aint's sacked Panteras; Fish filleted by Yets. Pass D NO#30, MIA#28. NO run D#24; 3 and under small price in London, our line NO -3.
CAR +9.5 @ NE - At home Pats rally vs Hou; Cam 3 Int's; C Kahlil out. ATS: Cats vs NE 5-1; as road dog 7+ 6-2, . NE D: run#26; pass#32. Car D: run#15; pass#3. Our line NE -6.
LAR @ DAL -6 - Lambs cling @ 9ers Thu, long week; Pokes W @ Cards Mon, short rest. Lambs run D#29; son of Buzzi busts out? ATS: Pokes 0-5 post MNF. Our line DAL -6.
DET +2.5 @ MIN - Bradford Out @ home: Kitties robbed vs ATL; Vikes gored Bucs. Vikes pass D#27, Stafford airs it out. Road dog Kats in domes 3-0 ATS/SU. Our line MIN -2.
TEN -1 @ HOU - home Tuxes ground Sea; road Texans had Pats. ATS: Post SEA favs 14-30; Ten at Hou 1-7; as div road fav 2-6-1. Ten Pass D#26; Hou Pass O#31. Our line TEN -4
JAX -3 @ NYJ - In London, Jags routed Ravens. @ home Jets made Sushi. Run D: Jets#27; Jax#28. Run O: Jax#5. ATS: Yets home dog 3pts+ 10-1, vs Jags 1-5. Our line JAX -4
CIN @ CLE +3.5 - Both 0-3. Stains faded @ Dolts; Gals scare @ Pack. ATS: Stains vs Gals 0-5; as home dog 4-10, vs div 1-5; Gals div road fav 2-7; those two @ CLE. Still, take the div home dog, our line PK.
PIT @ BAL +3 - In London, Ravens plucked by Jags. Riveters chaired @ Chitown. Poes ATS after 10pt+ loss 10-4. At home: vs div 5-0; as dog vs Riveters 3-0. Our line PK.
BUF @ ATL -8 - Bison bucked Buncos @ Buf. Birds got lucky @ Motown. Untested Buf D (McClown, Sub Par Cam, Simien) vs Hotlanta O? Our line ATL -7.
NYG +6 @ TB Away: Eags shorted Gmen; Vikes gored Bucs. What D? TB Pass#31; NYG Run#32. ATS: TB home fav 3pts+ 3-9. 0-3 Eli airs it out for road dog upset. Our line TB -3
PHI +2.5 @ LAC - @ home: Philly cheesed Gmen, Bolts grounded by Chefs. Bolts throw vs #25 pass D. Cheese run by #31 run D. ATS Bolts @ home 8-18. Our line PHI -3. LOCK
SF +7.5 @ ARZ - @ home: 9ers Lamb butted; Cards plucked by Pokes. Cards run O#31. ATS: 9ers 4-1, @ Zona: 8-3, as dog 5-1; Zona home fav vs div 1-5. Our line ARZ -3. LOCK
OAK @ DEN PK - Away: Bison bucked Buncos. Traitors looked past Skins on SNF. Den Run D#1 O#3. Oak D: Pass#24, Run#20. ATS @ DEN: Traitor dogs 2-3. Buncos 12-4 SU. The public bid the number up to, our line DEN -3. LOCK.
IND +13.5 @ SEA - Dome Dolts cleansed Stains; Squabs downed at Titans. What D? Ind Pass#29; Sea Run#30. IND:(LAR, ARZ, CLE). Ram blowout with Lord of the Rings Tolzien QB, "Brisket" much better. Too many prime time points, our line SEA -10.
WAS +9 @ KC - Home Skins scalped Traitors. Road Chefs sliced Bolts. KC O Run#1 vs WAS D Run#2. ATS: Road Dog Skins 5-1. Chefs: 10-1 vs Skins, Home Fav 6pts+ 0-9. O/U 49.5 Under LOCK. Too many prime time points, our line KC -6. LOCK.
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
RESULTS Week 3 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted. A push is a win.
LAR 41 @ 39 SF +3
BAL -3 7 @ 44 JAX - LOCK
CLE 28 @ 31 IND +2
PIT 17 @ 23 CHI +7.5
MIA 6 @ 20 NYJ +6.5
DEN -2 16 @ 26 BUF
HOU +14 33 @ 36 NE - NE SU LOCK
NO +6 34 @ 13 CAR
TB +1 17 @ 34 MIN - LOCK
ATL 30 @ 26 DET +3.5
NYG 24 @ 27 PHI -3 - LOCK Caught this 0.5 advance line error just prior to WK9 - PUSH
SEA +3 27 @ 33 TEN
KC -3 24 @ 10 LAC - LOCK
CIN 24 @ 27 GB -7 - LOCK
OAK -2.5 10 @ 27 WAS
DAL -3 28 @ 17 ARZ
How did we do? As gravity pulled us down the drain we sucked. Got screwed by half pt on PHI and DET, while SEA gambled and eschewed a late FG on 4th down.
Could have been 11-5, that's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre kickoff, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 1: 13-2 = 87% - Locks 4-0 = 100%
Week 2: 10-6 = 63% - Locks 5-1 = 83%
Week 3: 8-8 = 50% - Locks 2-4 = 33%
YTD: 31-16 = 66% - Locks 11-5 = 69%
At the moment, despite a horrible week we are still #1 on the web (picking all 47 games ATS). Technically tied at #1 with Frank Schwab at Yahoo who has picked 46 games. Won't last as gravitation to the mean has taken over. Technically Mendoza line is .200.
Week 4 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number.
As always, I reserve the right to take the opening line and make changes well in advance of the SUNDAY 13:00 EST kickoffs.
Good teams don't lose 3 straight? How about 4? Still perfect SF, CLE, NYG, LAC, CIN all looking to get off the schneid. Perhaps only LAC and CLE will remain 0-4? TBD.
Updated 3PM EST Saturday - remaining 15 picks added.
Updated 8AM EST Sunday - deleted ATL LOCK, added Under 49.5 LOCK MNF
CHI +7.5 @ GB In den Bears mauled Riveter's; Stuffers struggled for OT home W vs Gals. GB on frozen tundra vs Chairs: last 7W's by avg 19pts; sounds good? Last 4 at home vs Bears are 2-2 SU? Too many divisional rival road dog points on prime time TV.
CAR +9.5 @ NE - At home Pats rally vs Hou; Cam 3 Int's; C Kahlil out. ATS: Cats vs NE 5-1; as road dog 7+ 6-2, . NE D: run#26; pass#32. Car D: run#15; pass#3. Our line NE -6.
LAR @ DAL -6 - Lambs cling @ 9ers Thu, long week; Pokes W @ Cards Mon, short rest. Lambs run D#29; son of Buzzi busts out? ATS: Pokes 0-5 post MNF. Our line DAL -6.
DET +2.5 @ MIN - Bradford Out @ home: Kitties robbed vs ATL; Vikes gored Bucs. Vikes pass D#27, Stafford airs it out. Road dog Kats in domes 3-0 ATS/SU. Our line MIN -2.
TEN -1 @ HOU - home Tuxes ground Sea; road Texans had Pats. ATS: Post SEA favs 14-30; Ten at Hou 1-7; as div road fav 2-6-1. Ten Pass D#26; Hou Pass O#31. Our line TEN -4
JAX -3 @ NYJ - In London, Jags routed Ravens. @ home Jets made Sushi. Run D: Jets#27; Jax#28. Run O: Jax#5. ATS: Yets home dog 3pts+ 10-1, vs Jags 1-5. Our line JAX -4
CIN @ CLE +3.5 - Both 0-3. Stains faded @ Dolts; Gals scare @ Pack. ATS: Stains vs Gals 0-5; as home dog 4-10, vs div 1-5; Gals div road fav 2-7; those two @ CLE. Still, take the div home dog, our line PK.
PIT @ BAL +3 - In London, Ravens plucked by Jags. Riveters chaired @ Chitown. Poes ATS after 10pt+ loss 10-4. At home: vs div 5-0; as dog vs Riveters 3-0. Our line PK.
BUF @ ATL -8 - Bison bucked Buncos @ Buf. Birds got lucky @ Motown. Untested Buf D (McClown, Sub Par Cam, Simien) vs Hotlanta O? Our line ATL -7.
NYG +6 @ TB Away: Eags shorted Gmen; Vikes gored Bucs. What D? TB Pass#31; NYG Run#32. ATS: TB home fav 3pts+ 3-9. 0-3 Eli airs it out for road dog upset. Our line TB -3
PHI +2.5 @ LAC - @ home: Philly cheesed Gmen, Bolts grounded by Chefs. Bolts throw vs #25 pass D. Cheese run by #31 run D. ATS Bolts @ home 8-18. Our line PHI -3. LOCK
SF +7.5 @ ARZ - @ home: 9ers Lamb butted; Cards plucked by Pokes. Cards run O#31. ATS: 9ers 4-1, @ Zona: 8-3, as dog 5-1; Zona home fav vs div 1-5. Our line ARZ -3. LOCK
OAK @ DEN PK - Away: Bison bucked Buncos. Traitors looked past Skins on SNF. Den Run D#1 O#3. Oak D: Pass#24, Run#20. ATS @ DEN: Traitor dogs 2-3. Buncos 12-4 SU. The public bid the number up to, our line DEN -3. LOCK.
IND +13.5 @ SEA - Dome Dolts cleansed Stains; Squabs downed at Titans. What D? Ind Pass#29; Sea Run#30. IND:(LAR, ARZ, CLE). Ram blowout with Lord of the Rings Tolzien QB, "Brisket" much better. Too many prime time points, our line SEA -10.
WAS +9 @ KC - Home Skins scalped Traitors. Road Chefs sliced Bolts. KC O Run#1 vs WAS D Run#2. ATS: Road Dog Skins 5-1. Chefs: 10-1 vs Skins, Home Fav 6pts+ 0-9. O/U 49.5 Under LOCK. Too many prime time points, our line KC -6. LOCK.
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for every week of the season, going back to Week 2, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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