Left and Citron:The Boy Who Cried Wolf?
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
The Boy Who Cried Wolf?
Courtesy of Lumichi (Olivia Chin Mueller) - Deviantart
One of Aesop's Fables, this tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When a wolf actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep are eaten by the wolf.
Crying wolf can cause and effect BOTH Type I errors (a false positive) and Type II errors (a false negative). A type I error is the (false) detection of an effect that is not present, while a type II error is the failure to detect an effect that is present.
First, everyone believed there was a wolf, when there wasn't. Second, everyone believed there was no wolf, when there was. Thus from this fable is derived the English idiom "to cry wolf", defined as "to give a false alarm", as meaning to make false claims, with the result that subsequent true claims are disbelieved. Apropos, we think.
Citron Shorts Again?
The latest target for infamous "activist" short seller Andrew Left and Citron Research is Ubiquiti (UBNT). After placing their short bets, the strategy involves launching torpedoes with intent to sink the stock, by publishing accusations of fraud or abuse. There is nothing illegal in these activities, as long as what Left and Citron publish is not fraudulent.
Before analyzing Citron's allegations of fraud, we will first exert some quick and dirty due diligence. An examination of Ubiquiti's debt service and short term liquidity situation should reveal whether they are in immediate danger.
As we are now a "contributor" at Seeking Alpha, our published articles, instablog and comments can be found here. Please continue to follow The Nattering Naybob here and at Seeking Alpha. We thank you for your support.
- Last Time Out; Aesop's Fable; Debt Service
- Liquidity; Taking It In The Shorts; That Trick Never Works
- Rash and Reckless; To Tell The Truth
Last Time Out?
One might ask if those affected [by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma] think for one moment: hurricanes which make landfall, never are as strong as advertised and are always targeted at major metro areas?
More so, the lack of services and provisioning of everyday necessities, which many take for granted, are the resulting hype to create panic and profit, a conspiracy to advance climate change, and a three week and perhaps much longer, HOAX??? - Irma: Lying To Us? - Part 1 and Part 2
Do not listen to @rushlimbaugh when he says #Irma is not a dangerous #storm and is hype. He is putting people's lives at risk
— Al Roker (@alroker) September 6, 2017It seems that in a swirling hurricane of white noise and MSM coverage, misinformation, disinformation and fake news abounds. Tonight, we examine potential abuse and consequences of such in the markets. We offer you now a little item called...
The Boy Who Cried Wolf?
Courtesy of Lumichi (Olivia Chin Mueller) - Deviantart
One of Aesop's Fables, this tale concerns a shepherd boy who repeatedly tricks nearby villagers into thinking wolves are attacking his flock. When a wolf actually does appear and the boy again calls for help, the villagers believe that it is another false alarm and the sheep are eaten by the wolf.
Crying wolf can cause and effect BOTH Type I errors (a false positive) and Type II errors (a false negative). A type I error is the (false) detection of an effect that is not present, while a type II error is the failure to detect an effect that is present.
First, everyone believed there was a wolf, when there wasn't. Second, everyone believed there was no wolf, when there was. Thus from this fable is derived the English idiom "to cry wolf", defined as "to give a false alarm", as meaning to make false claims, with the result that subsequent true claims are disbelieved. Apropos, we think.
Citron Shorts Again?
The latest target for infamous "activist" short seller Andrew Left and Citron Research is Ubiquiti (UBNT). After placing their short bets, the strategy involves launching torpedoes with intent to sink the stock, by publishing accusations of fraud or abuse. There is nothing illegal in these activities, as long as what Left and Citron publish is not fraudulent.
Before analyzing Citron's allegations of fraud, we will first exert some quick and dirty due diligence. An examination of Ubiquiti's debt service and short term liquidity situation should reveal whether they are in immediate danger.
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