Irma: Lying To Us? - Part 2
Continuing from Part One... Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
In Part One, we reviewed public commentary which expressed skepticism about the seriousness of Hurricane Irma, floated unfounded theories about falsely created panic for profit, and claimed storm coverage is part of a conspiracy solely aimed at furthering the global warming agenda.
Yet, just days later the commentator suddenly "sobered up" to the realities of mother natures potential harshness, by reversing tack in evacuating and abandoning their Florida home. But say baby does your head spin? Like Regan in the Exorcist or like Hurricane Irma?
Below, a map demonstrating not a menacing weather condition, but a growing epidemic with impending consequence. Watch and reflect for a moment as this GIF reflects resulting deaths, and not the levels of addiction.
Courtesy America Al-jazeera
Drug overdose is the leading cause of accidental death in the US, with 52K+ lethal drug
overdoses in 2015. Opioid addiction is driving this epidemic, with 20K+ overdose deaths
related to prescription pain relievers.
From 1999 to 2008, overdose death rates, sales and substance use disorder treatment
admissions related to prescription pain relievers increased in parallel. The overdose death rate in 2008 4X the 1999 rate; sales of prescription pain relievers in 2010 4X the 1999 rate; and the substance use disorder treatment admission rate in 2009 6X the 1999 rate.
In 2012, 259M prescriptions were written for opioids, which is more than enough to
give every American adult their own bottle of pills. Of the 20.5M Americans 12 or older that had a substance use disorder in 2015, 2M had a substance use disorder involving prescription pain relievers.
Look Out, It Could Be A Brand Name?
Perhaps, the hard lessons of experience have not been learned or taken to heart? Based upon said diatribe and our experience, we know when we are being lied to and manipulated. Lies, manipulation, blame shifting, sensationalism and the ability to spin their heads (like little Regan), are the currency of addictive personalities.
Courtesy YouTube and Warner Bros
Sheer speculation, could the sum of those ramblings examined in Part One, demonstrate reduced analytical ability? Perhaps lowered capacity for objective thought and decision making? The above are symptomatic of addiction, active and post detox, aka temporarily sober.
Prolonged exposure and addiction to opioids change the neurological structure of the brain, which permanently alters the way the brain functions. Permanent alteration means exactly that, operative word being permanent.
Feelings of overconfidence, poor judgments, risky behavior, are all symptoms of manic depression (bi-polar disorder). Manic depression, hallucinations, delusions, paranoia, confusion, anxiety, are all psychological effects of irreparable, permanent brain damage.
Whoa Hoss!! Nobody should rush to judgment, its all water under the hurricane, let bygones be bygones, for to err is human, and to forgive is divine. Going out on a limb...
Perhaps years of consumption of an inordinate abundance of opioid painkillers, Xanax (anti-anxiety), and Clonodine (ADHD); can put ones body and mind, or what is left of it, in an optimized state of readiness, and thus be uniquely qualified as "go-to"?
In the case of an audience of any size, in advancing or refuting any theories, especially when putting other lives at risk, and perhaps excepting the topic of addiction, we think not. But that's just our humble opinion, what we know is little, what we do not know, immense.
Trading Misfortune?
How can one trade on the misfortune of others? Orange Juice, Cotton, Sugar, Natural Gas (UNG) and Lumber prices should rise. Goods will need to be shipped in by truck, rail and ship. Structures will need to be rebuilt; insurance claims paid; loans for business and rebuilding made, and labor hired.
The silver lining in the dark clouds is, any rebuilding effort (at the moment from varied sources, est. insured losses ; est. economic damage; $180B for Harvey and $100B for Irma) will be a boost to PCE consumption, DPI spending, the economic GDP, and velocity of transactions. Does one theorize that the damage created by these natural disasters, was part of a larger economic recovery or Fed conspiracy to boost rates?
A short list of potential market plays: Citigroup (C); General Electric (GE); Bank of America (BAC); Lumber Liquidators (LL) Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW),
Wal-Mart (WMT); Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival (CCL), Disney (DIS); AIG, Generac (GNRC) Berkshire A; Berkshire B; UPS; FedEx (FDX); YRC Trucking (YRCW); (CSX) Railways
Irma Update?
Courtesy ARSTechnica
Above, as of Noon EST Sunday, the European track model. During Harvey and Irma, the European model seemed to have had the best "track" record. The EIA track with energy disruptions can be seen here.
Real time track updates can be seen at Wunderground. Weather Channel updates here and the latest from NOAA here.
Courtesy CFAN and Wunderground
Above, an on the money track from eight days prior. The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, but adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that takes into account storm motion since 0Z). One wonders if "go to" commentators will claim to have had it "exactly right" all along?
Here is the FPL Power Tracker Map. Since September 10th, over 6M have been hit with power outages. For example, in Lee County most homes are all electric. Those with gasoline or natural gas generators, must have enough fuel to run the generator.
No power means: no hot water, no hot shower, and if the local water pump stations are down, no water period; careful flushing the toilet, good luck boiling water. Many have pools, no pool pump circulation or filtration. For food: no refrigeration, freezer or ice; no microwave, oven or stove top to cook; only gas BBQ.
For communication:in certain cases, no land line, cell, internet or cable TV service. If the local gasoline stations are still depleted, no gasoline, limiting transportation options. If local business and stores are closed or still depleted, no supplies and no restaurants.
Many in Lee County and throughout Florida will be without power until September 23rd. All of the above assumes ones home is still intact and habitable. For living conditions, temperatures in the 80's with 90% humidity, and no air conditioning.
One might ask if those affected think for one moment: hurricanes which make landfall, never are as strong as advertised and are always targeted at major metro areas?
More so, the lack of services and provisioning of everyday necessities, which many take for granted, are the resulting hype to create panic and profit, a conspiracy to advance climate change, and a three week and perhaps much longer, HOAX???
They call Florida the Sunshine State, and while Irma hung out, it was a place where the Sun did not shine. One hopes that those affected, and whatever audience is foolish enough to remain listening, might remind a certain "go to" commentator, what they think about all the above and exactly where that commentator can put it.
For all those in the Caribbean, Southern Gulf and Florida, our hearts go out and we can only hope for the best. Perhaps the track will be a kinder and gentler one? And perhaps landfall and wind shear will knock Irma's threat potential down quickly? TBD by Mother.
In that event, rest assured "go to" commentators will claim to have had it "exactly right" all along. Perhaps those with wisdom, insight to know the truth, and common sense, can live with that and Out.
Hope you folks enjoyed yourselves, catch you later on down the trail. Would like to thank you folks fer kindly droppin' in. You're all invited back again to this locality. To have a heapin' helpin' of Nattering hospitality. Naybob that is. Set a spell, take your shoes off. Y'all come back now, y'hear!
This is our 129th in a series of thematically related missives which will attempt to identify the macroeconomic forces with potential to adversely effect capital, commodity, equity, bond and asset markets.
I wish to dedicate this missive to one of my mentors, Salmo Trutta, who is a prolific commenter on SA. Without Salmo's tutelage, and insistence on not masticating and spoon-feeding the baby ducks, as in learning the hard way by doing the leg work and earning it, this missive would not have been possible. To you "Proximo"... "win the crowd and win your freedom" - Spaniard.
Disclaimer?
Before investing, investors should consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of an investment vehicle. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus and summary prospectus, which can be obtained from the principal or a financial adviser. Prospective investors should read the prospectus carefully before investing.
As for how all of the above ties into the potential and partial list of market plays below... the market as a whole could be influenced, and this could tie into any list of investments or assets. Those listed below happen to influence the markets more than most.
There are many macroeconomic cross sector and market asset correlations involved that affect your investments. Economic conditions, the eurodollar, global dollar debt and monetary policy all influence the valuation of the above and market plays below, via King Dollar's value, credit spreads, swap spread pricing, market making, liquidity, monetary supply and velocity, just to name a few. For a complete missive series listing covering those subject and more, click here.
The potential global economic developments discussed in this missive could affect numerous capital and asset markets, sectors, indexes, commodities, forex, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and stocks.
Other sources: ASAM (2016 American Society of Addiction Medicine Study). 1998-2003: a 5 year pill probe; 2003 confession; 2006 arrest; One warrant for five months of records, utilizing four doctors, at one pharmacy.
- Last Time Out; The Exorcist; Damage Potential; Hype
- Water; Force; Landfall; Tracking; Flooding; Largest Insured Loss
- Conspiracies; A Condition; Trading Misfortune; Storm Update
Last Time Out?
Can decisions and actions based upon questionable data have a delusional effect with potentially deleterious affect? - Of Economic Reality, Upward Mobility And Ritholtz?
Answer: When based in suspect calculations and data, as much as decisions and actions based in superstition can.
An Opioid Or Weather Condition?
In Part One, we reviewed public commentary which expressed skepticism about the seriousness of Hurricane Irma, floated unfounded theories about falsely created panic for profit, and claimed storm coverage is part of a conspiracy solely aimed at furthering the global warming agenda.
Yet, just days later the commentator suddenly "sobered up" to the realities of mother natures potential harshness, by reversing tack in evacuating and abandoning their Florida home. But say baby does your head spin? Like Regan in the Exorcist or like Hurricane Irma?
Below, a map demonstrating not a menacing weather condition, but a growing epidemic with impending consequence. Watch and reflect for a moment as this GIF reflects resulting deaths, and not the levels of addiction.
Drug overdose is the leading cause of accidental death in the US, with 52K+ lethal drug
overdoses in 2015. Opioid addiction is driving this epidemic, with 20K+ overdose deaths
related to prescription pain relievers.
From 1999 to 2008, overdose death rates, sales and substance use disorder treatment
admissions related to prescription pain relievers increased in parallel. The overdose death rate in 2008 4X the 1999 rate; sales of prescription pain relievers in 2010 4X the 1999 rate; and the substance use disorder treatment admission rate in 2009 6X the 1999 rate.
In 2012, 259M prescriptions were written for opioids, which is more than enough to
give every American adult their own bottle of pills. Of the 20.5M Americans 12 or older that had a substance use disorder in 2015, 2M had a substance use disorder involving prescription pain relievers.
Look Out, It Could Be A Brand Name?
I’m not accusing anybody of anything illegal here, it’s just the way the world works. I don’t want [to] mention brand names...Good judgment is the product of experience. Experience is most often gained through bad judgments. Everybody makes bad judgments. However, the commentary issued indicates a lack of wisdom (practical application), insight (ability to know underlying truth), and plain common sense.
Perhaps, the hard lessons of experience have not been learned or taken to heart? Based upon said diatribe and our experience, we know when we are being lied to and manipulated. Lies, manipulation, blame shifting, sensationalism and the ability to spin their heads (like little Regan), are the currency of addictive personalities.
Sheer speculation, could the sum of those ramblings examined in Part One, demonstrate reduced analytical ability? Perhaps lowered capacity for objective thought and decision making? The above are symptomatic of addiction, active and post detox, aka temporarily sober.
Prolonged exposure and addiction to opioids change the neurological structure of the brain, which permanently alters the way the brain functions. Permanent alteration means exactly that, operative word being permanent.
Feelings of overconfidence, poor judgments, risky behavior, are all symptoms of manic depression (bi-polar disorder). Manic depression, hallucinations, delusions, paranoia, confusion, anxiety, are all psychological effects of irreparable, permanent brain damage.
Whoa Hoss!! Nobody should rush to judgment, its all water under the hurricane, let bygones be bygones, for to err is human, and to forgive is divine. Going out on a limb...
Perhaps years of consumption of an inordinate abundance of opioid painkillers, Xanax (anti-anxiety), and Clonodine (ADHD); can put ones body and mind, or what is left of it, in an optimized state of readiness, and thus be uniquely qualified as "go-to"?
In the case of an audience of any size, in advancing or refuting any theories, especially when putting other lives at risk, and perhaps excepting the topic of addiction, we think not. But that's just our humble opinion, what we know is little, what we do not know, immense.
Do not listen to @rushlimbaugh when he says #Irma is not a dangerous #storm and is hype. He is putting people's lives at risk— Al Roker (@alroker) September 6, 2017
Trading Misfortune?
How can one trade on the misfortune of others? Orange Juice, Cotton, Sugar, Natural Gas (UNG) and Lumber prices should rise. Goods will need to be shipped in by truck, rail and ship. Structures will need to be rebuilt; insurance claims paid; loans for business and rebuilding made, and labor hired.
The silver lining in the dark clouds is, any rebuilding effort (at the moment from varied sources, est. insured losses ; est. economic damage; $180B for Harvey and $100B for Irma) will be a boost to PCE consumption, DPI spending, the economic GDP, and velocity of transactions. Does one theorize that the damage created by these natural disasters, was part of a larger economic recovery or Fed conspiracy to boost rates?
A short list of potential market plays: Citigroup (C); General Electric (GE); Bank of America (BAC); Lumber Liquidators (LL) Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW),
Wal-Mart (WMT); Royal Caribbean (RCL), Carnival (CCL), Disney (DIS); AIG, Generac (GNRC) Berkshire A; Berkshire B; UPS; FedEx (FDX); YRC Trucking (YRCW); (CSX) Railways
The impact of Hurricane Irma will begin to be sorted out during the week as the extent of storm damage becomes clearer. There could be more volatile trading with insurance stocks such as Travelers (NYSE:TRV), Progressive (NYSE:PGR), Allstate (NYSE:ALL), Chubb (NYSE:CB), RenaissanceRe (NYSE:RNR) and Universal Insurance (NYSEMKT:UVE) - while Disney (NYSE:DIS) and SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS) will also be on watch. Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Lowe's (NYSE:LOW) have already been bid up 6% ahead of the storm, while self-storage names Public Storage (NYSE:PSA), CubeSmart (NYSE:CUBE) and National Storage (NYSE:NSA) could continue to draw interest. Lodging stocks and the airline sector will also be in focus as analysts weigh in on the potential hit to Q3 earnings. - SA Irma Stocks to Watch
Irma Update?
Above, as of Noon EST Sunday, the European track model. During Harvey and Irma, the European model seemed to have had the best "track" record. The EIA track with energy disruptions can be seen here.
Real time track updates can be seen at Wunderground. Weather Channel updates here and the latest from NOAA here.
Courtesy CFAN and Wunderground
Above, an on the money track from eight days prior. The 0Z September 2, 2017, track forecast by the operational European model for Irma (red line, but adjusted by CFAN using a proprietary technique that takes into account storm motion since 0Z). One wonders if "go to" commentators will claim to have had it "exactly right" all along?
Here is the FPL Power Tracker Map. Since September 10th, over 6M have been hit with power outages. For example, in Lee County most homes are all electric. Those with gasoline or natural gas generators, must have enough fuel to run the generator.
No power means: no hot water, no hot shower, and if the local water pump stations are down, no water period; careful flushing the toilet, good luck boiling water. Many have pools, no pool pump circulation or filtration. For food: no refrigeration, freezer or ice; no microwave, oven or stove top to cook; only gas BBQ.
For communication:in certain cases, no land line, cell, internet or cable TV service. If the local gasoline stations are still depleted, no gasoline, limiting transportation options. If local business and stores are closed or still depleted, no supplies and no restaurants.
Many in Lee County and throughout Florida will be without power until September 23rd. All of the above assumes ones home is still intact and habitable. For living conditions, temperatures in the 80's with 90% humidity, and no air conditioning.
One might ask if those affected think for one moment: hurricanes which make landfall, never are as strong as advertised and are always targeted at major metro areas?
More so, the lack of services and provisioning of everyday necessities, which many take for granted, are the resulting hype to create panic and profit, a conspiracy to advance climate change, and a three week and perhaps much longer, HOAX???
They call Florida the Sunshine State, and while Irma hung out, it was a place where the Sun did not shine. One hopes that those affected, and whatever audience is foolish enough to remain listening, might remind a certain "go to" commentator, what they think about all the above and exactly where that commentator can put it.
For all those in the Caribbean, Southern Gulf and Florida, our hearts go out and we can only hope for the best. Perhaps the track will be a kinder and gentler one? And perhaps landfall and wind shear will knock Irma's threat potential down quickly? TBD by Mother.
In that event, rest assured "go to" commentators will claim to have had it "exactly right" all along. Perhaps those with wisdom, insight to know the truth, and common sense, can live with that and Out.
Happy Trails?
Hope you folks enjoyed yourselves, catch you later on down the trail. Would like to thank you folks fer kindly droppin' in. You're all invited back again to this locality. To have a heapin' helpin' of Nattering hospitality. Naybob that is. Set a spell, take your shoes off. Y'all come back now, y'hear!
This is our 129th in a series of thematically related missives which will attempt to identify the macroeconomic forces with potential to adversely effect capital, commodity, equity, bond and asset markets.
I wish to dedicate this missive to one of my mentors, Salmo Trutta, who is a prolific commenter on SA. Without Salmo's tutelage, and insistence on not masticating and spoon-feeding the baby ducks, as in learning the hard way by doing the leg work and earning it, this missive would not have been possible. To you "Proximo"... "win the crowd and win your freedom" - Spaniard.
Disclaimer?
Investing is an inherently risky activity, and investors must always be prepared to potentially lose some or all of an investment's value. Past performance is, of course, no guarantee of future results.
Before investing, investors should consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of an investment vehicle. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus and summary prospectus, which can be obtained from the principal or a financial adviser. Prospective investors should read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Market Plays?
As for how all of the above ties into the potential and partial list of market plays below... the market as a whole could be influenced, and this could tie into any list of investments or assets. Those listed below happen to influence the markets more than most.
There are many macroeconomic cross sector and market asset correlations involved that affect your investments. Economic conditions, the eurodollar, global dollar debt and monetary policy all influence the valuation of the above and market plays below, via King Dollar's value, credit spreads, swap spread pricing, market making, liquidity, monetary supply and velocity, just to name a few. For a complete missive series listing covering those subject and more, click here.
The potential global economic developments discussed in this missive could affect numerous capital and asset markets, sectors, indexes, commodities, forex, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs and stocks.
Other sources: ASAM (2016 American Society of Addiction Medicine Study). 1998-2003: a 5 year pill probe; 2003 confession; 2006 arrest; One warrant for five months of records, utilizing four doctors, at one pharmacy.
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