Irma: Lying To Us? - Part 1
Discussion, critique and analysis of the potential impacts on equity, bond, commodity, capital and asset markets regarding the following:
Courtesy of HorrorBuzz.com
Directed by William Friedkin (The French Connection); adapted screenplay by William Peter Blatty from his 1971 novel of the same name, and starring Ellen Burstyn, Linda Blair, Max von Sydow, Lee J. Cobb and Jason Miller.
One of the highest-grossing films in history, grossing over $441M worldwide, The Exorcist was the first horror film to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture. This tale of an exorcism is based loosely on actual events.
When young Regan (Linda Blair) starts acting odd -- levitating, speaking in tongues -- her worried mother (Ellen Burstyn) seeks medical help, only to hit a dead end. A local priest (Jason Miller), however, thinks the girl may be seized by the devil. The priest makes a request to perform an exorcism, and the church sends in an expert (Max von Sydow) to help with the difficult job.
The film's notable psychological themes include the nature of faith in the midst of doubt as well as the boundaries of maternal love as a mother has to do whatever she can to save her child. In 2010, the Library of Congress selected the film to be preserved as part of its National Film Registry as being "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant".
Much like poor little Regan, the veracity of Hurricane's Harvey and Irma are certainly spinning their's and many others heads.
Damage Potential?
Courtesy of NCEI
While Harvey was a contender for worse cost (damage), Irma is just as strong, but much larger in scope and scale. Here is the NOAA table for $1B weather events 1980 - 2017. Here are the 30 costliest hurricanes.
In 1973, theater audiences were visibly shaken, scared stiff and disturbed by The Exorcist. In comparison to today's mad slasher, chainsaw gore fests, that psychological horror classic might be, much like Hurricane Irma, erroneously considered as tame, and nothing but media hype by some.
Tame Hype?
Quotations are excerpts from My Analysis of the Hurricane Irma Panic, in which the commentator whose #1 radio talk show has an estimated 26M daily listeners, claims that the media and retailers are conspiring to increase viewership and profits. And through sensationalism and fake news, there is a conspiracy to advance an agenda that climate change exists.
Tap Water?
Effluent that is corrosive to pipes, corroded distribution and household pipes, and the consequences of Flint, Michigan come to mind. The comment demonstrates a lack of real world experience for which we grant a mulligan.
Sourcing Water?
The commentary seems to be digging a hole, and not one from which anything of use might spring forth. Well, maybe when they hit rock bottom? To imagine water just pops up without any effort involved, ex nihilo and says - here I am, come and get me, requires a mind set of ignorance, overconfidence and poor judgment, and that's putting it mildly.
Hurricane Force?
To be classified as Category 5, wind speed must exceed ≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots, ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h. The classification can provide some indication of the potential damage and flooding a hurricane will cause upon landfall.
If the wind speed drops only 3mph to 155mph, it's a Category 4, which happened in the case of Irma. The Saffir–Simpson scale does not take into consideration the size of the storm nor the speed of wind gusts. Although Irma and Andrew share Category 5, Irma dwarfed Andrew in size with wind gusts measured at 200mph.
The comment is forgetful that fear of the unknown, beliefs and superstitions, all have nothing to do with the potential damage, injury, loss of property and life that an unpredictable act of nature can cause.
The comment is superstitious, delusional, illogical, exhibits hallucinatory thinking and poor judgment, all of which could lead to risky behavior.
Landfall?
Tracking?
Would one prefer that when scientific models and simulations (tracks) indicate a possibility of landfall near a major metro center, that the scientists and media ignore it, and not inform the public?
Now, there's your sitting ducks or as some might prefer, sacrificial lambs for the exorcism of the red devil from the ocean? "Go to" manic depressive, anxiety ridden extremes much? Detecting a pattern here yet?
Flooding?
Largest Insured Loss?
Hurricane Katrina (and 4 weeks later Rita) was the worst insured loss event in the history of insurance anywhere in the world. Bigger than 9/11, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan (Fukushima), and Hurricane Andrew (the previous benchmark).
Between 1980 and 2005, homeowners insurers in Louisiana wrote a total of $13B in homeowners insurance premium, from which they earned $1B in profit.
In one day, Aug. 29, 2005, Katrina's landfall cost those insurers $8B. When she was done spinning her head, a combined $41B of insured losses in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.
Although Harvey's loss total could average $57B, much of that will be uninsured. If Irma makes landfall at Category 3 or above for a sustained period, she could easily shatter Harvey's mark and Katrina's record.
The Expert?
Then why bring it up at all? For what purpose aside from braggadocio? Thinking of oneself as overly important, gifted or special? Feeling overly happy, excited or confident? What are those symptoms of?
From what we have heard and read so far, we are quite sure a certain commentator has always been exactly right, at least in their own mind. As a public service, in the future, perhaps they should continue to not bother telling anybody, what so ever?
The Conspiracy?
So reporting Irma as a measured Category 5 hurricane, possibly headed for Florida, is hype or fake news being generated to create panic and profit? Said "hype" has nothing to do with the public welfare and prevention of death and destruction? Hallucinatory, paranoid delusional much? Can you sense hitting bottom yet? Not quite yet...
The Theory?
Said commentary exhibits a dearth of logic, while being wrought with fallacies of argument which attack a scientific theory backed by an ever mounting wall of evidence.
As that commentary earnestly dug deep, jumped in and buried itself alive, all without the turning of a spade from others, this author is tempted to reserve his commentary to the facts presented above.
Perhaps it is necessary to plumb the depths certain bombastic, demagogic commentators regularly bottom feed at, because that might just be part of the problem and point at hand? As Dr. Hannibal Lecter said to Agent Clarice Starling, but not today, more to come in Part 2.
- Last Time Out; The Exorcist; Damage Potential; Hype
- Water; Force; Landfall; Tracking; Flooding; Largest Insured Loss
- Conspiracies; A Condition; Trading Misfortune; Storm Update
Last Time Out?
Can decisions and actions based upon questionable data have a delusional effect with potentially deleterious affect? - Of Economic Reality, Upward Mobility And Ritholtz?
Answer: When based in suspect calculations and data, as much as decisions and actions based in superstition can.
The Exorcist?
Directed by William Friedkin (The French Connection); adapted screenplay by William Peter Blatty from his 1971 novel of the same name, and starring Ellen Burstyn, Linda Blair, Max von Sydow, Lee J. Cobb and Jason Miller.
One of the highest-grossing films in history, grossing over $441M worldwide, The Exorcist was the first horror film to be nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture. This tale of an exorcism is based loosely on actual events.
When young Regan (Linda Blair) starts acting odd -- levitating, speaking in tongues -- her worried mother (Ellen Burstyn) seeks medical help, only to hit a dead end. A local priest (Jason Miller), however, thinks the girl may be seized by the devil. The priest makes a request to perform an exorcism, and the church sends in an expert (Max von Sydow) to help with the difficult job.
The film's notable psychological themes include the nature of faith in the midst of doubt as well as the boundaries of maternal love as a mother has to do whatever she can to save her child. In 2010, the Library of Congress selected the film to be preserved as part of its National Film Registry as being "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant".
Much like poor little Regan, the veracity of Hurricane's Harvey and Irma are certainly spinning their's and many others heads.
Damage Potential?
Courtesy of NCEI
While Harvey was a contender for worse cost (damage), Irma is just as strong, but much larger in scope and scale. Here is the NOAA table for $1B weather events 1980 - 2017. Here are the 30 costliest hurricanes.
In 1973, theater audiences were visibly shaken, scared stiff and disturbed by The Exorcist. In comparison to today's mad slasher, chainsaw gore fests, that psychological horror classic might be, much like Hurricane Irma, erroneously considered as tame, and nothing but media hype by some.
Tame Hype?
Quotations are excerpts from My Analysis of the Hurricane Irma Panic, in which the commentator whose #1 radio talk show has an estimated 26M daily listeners, claims that the media and retailers are conspiring to increase viewership and profits. And through sensationalism and fake news, there is a conspiracy to advance an agenda that climate change exists.
Tap Water?
Tap water is entirely safe... It’s in your house every day in whatever amounts that you want. But people have been conditioned to believe that tap water is dirty, is dangerous, and might cause them to get sick. So they avoid it.Tap water is usually safe. Under certain circumstances which are prevalent in some Florida aquifers, and resulting effluent from the treatment plant, unless properly treated and re-filtered (at the point of service), said tap water can be unsafe.
Effluent that is corrosive to pipes, corroded distribution and household pipes, and the consequences of Flint, Michigan come to mind. The comment demonstrates a lack of real world experience for which we grant a mulligan.
Sourcing Water?
You know, if I were the Big Oil guys I’d be so jealous of the Big Water guys. The Big Water guys don’t have to drill for it. The Big Water guys do not have to spend any research and development money. They don’t have to go through the environmentalist wackos.No R and D, drilling or environmental issues? The comment displays absolutely no clue how water is sourced, treated, distributed, collected, disposed of, or reclaimed. Ask anyone who lacks: water resources, properly treated water or drinking water.
The commentary seems to be digging a hole, and not one from which anything of use might spring forth. Well, maybe when they hit rock bottom? To imagine water just pops up without any effort involved, ex nihilo and says - here I am, come and get me, requires a mind set of ignorance, overconfidence and poor judgment, and that's putting it mildly.
Hurricane Force?
...the whole thing is not Category 5. The whole thing is not 30 inches of rain. It’s a much more compact area of the storm. But the graphics have been created to make it look like the ocean’s having an exorcism, just getting rid of the devil here in the form of this hurricane, this bright red stuff.The whole thing, the graphics, an exorcism, the devil, bright red stuff. Digging deeper?
To be classified as Category 5, wind speed must exceed ≥70 m/s, ≥137 knots, ≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h. The classification can provide some indication of the potential damage and flooding a hurricane will cause upon landfall.
If the wind speed drops only 3mph to 155mph, it's a Category 4, which happened in the case of Irma. The Saffir–Simpson scale does not take into consideration the size of the storm nor the speed of wind gusts. Although Irma and Andrew share Category 5, Irma dwarfed Andrew in size with wind gusts measured at 200mph.
The comment is forgetful that fear of the unknown, beliefs and superstitions, all have nothing to do with the potential damage, injury, loss of property and life that an unpredictable act of nature can cause.
The comment is superstitious, delusional, illogical, exhibits hallucinatory thinking and poor judgment, all of which could lead to risky behavior.
Landfall?
Another thing I’ve found, folks, these storms, once they actually hit, are never as strong as they’re reported.Never, ever, really? The comment is forgetful (short term memory loss?) about the people in Texas, post Harvey. But the hole gets deeper as the people in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee post Category 5 Katrina and Rita, are also forgotten. Just a short list, we could go on, as Dr. Lecter said to Agent Starling, but not today.
Tracking?
Unlike UFOs which only land in trailer parks, hurricanes are always forecast to hit major population centers. What do you mean, we’re sitting ducks? What, are you in Key West? You’re not a sitting deck unless you’re in Key West. What do you mean? Why are you a sitting duck? What are you talking about?... if they are going to approach a hit on the U.S., you will note that early tracks always have them impacting a major population center.First, never? Now always, really? Hurricanes, Cyclones, Tropical Storms and Depressions, through the winds and tidal storm surges created, can cause major damage, injury, loss of property and life without ever making landfall. In fact, storm surges are the #1 cause of death in tropical storms.
Would one prefer that when scientific models and simulations (tracks) indicate a possibility of landfall near a major metro center, that the scientists and media ignore it, and not inform the public?
Now, there's your sitting ducks or as some might prefer, sacrificial lambs for the exorcism of the red devil from the ocean? "Go to" manic depressive, anxiety ridden extremes much? Detecting a pattern here yet?
Flooding?
Once it came to shore [Harvey], it stopped and that’s why Houston flooded. And nobody predicted it. Well, they did predict it was gonna stop. The models did predict that once it came ashore it was gonna stop for a while. They knew that. But they didn’t know this a week in advance. They knew it days in advance.Let's get this straight, nobody did, they did, the models did, they knew, but they didn't know, but they did know. Incoherent and confused ramblings? Something of use might come out of this ever deepening hole, when we get to the bottom of it?
Largest Insured Loss?
Hurricane Katrina (and 4 weeks later Rita) was the worst insured loss event in the history of insurance anywhere in the world. Bigger than 9/11, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan (Fukushima), and Hurricane Andrew (the previous benchmark).
Between 1980 and 2005, homeowners insurers in Louisiana wrote a total of $13B in homeowners insurance premium, from which they earned $1B in profit.
In one day, Aug. 29, 2005, Katrina's landfall cost those insurers $8B. When she was done spinning her head, a combined $41B of insured losses in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.
Although Harvey's loss total could average $57B, much of that will be uninsured. If Irma makes landfall at Category 3 or above for a sustained period, she could easily shatter Harvey's mark and Katrina's record.
The Expert?
I’ve lived here since 1997, and I have developed a system that I trust, my own analysis of the data. And I’m not a meteorologist. I’m not gonna tell you what mine is because I don’t want to be misinterpreted as giving you a forecast. Well, I’m tempted to, though, because I’ve been exactly right since last Friday. I am tempted to tell you.Let's get this straight, one has a time tested system of forecasting, but they're not going to tell. They've been exactly right, are tempted to tell, but won't give their forecast, because they don't want it to be misinterpreted as a forecast?
Then why bring it up at all? For what purpose aside from braggadocio? Thinking of oneself as overly important, gifted or special? Feeling overly happy, excited or confident? What are those symptoms of?
From what we have heard and read so far, we are quite sure a certain commentator has always been exactly right, at least in their own mind. As a public service, in the future, perhaps they should continue to not bother telling anybody, what so ever?
The Conspiracy?
So the media benefits with the panic with increased eyeballs, and the retailers benefit from the panic with increased sales, and the TV companies benefit because they’re getting advertising dollars from the businesses that are seeing all this attention from customers. And in that sense, folks, I mean, look, it’s the way the world works. I’m not accusing anybody of anything illegal here, it’s just the way the world works.One might ask anyone who has ever felt the affect or effect of a hurricane, much less, if being notified in advance was hype or fake news. Despite having lived in Florida since 1997, the comment neglects that hurricanes are acts of nature which can be unpredictable and capriciously destroy property and take lives.
So reporting Irma as a measured Category 5 hurricane, possibly headed for Florida, is hype or fake news being generated to create panic and profit? Said "hype" has nothing to do with the public welfare and prevention of death and destruction? Hallucinatory, paranoid delusional much? Can you sense hitting bottom yet? Not quite yet...
The Theory?
And I’ve gotta be very careful here because I am not a meteorologist, and nothing I say today should be considered to be a forecast or a prediction. I am not the National Hurricane Center. I am not a climatologist or meteorologist. All I do is analyze the data that they publish. Just as I am the go-to tech guy in my family and here on the staff, when it comes to a hurricane bearing down on south Florida, I’m the go-to guy.
Now, my theory — and it’s only a theory — is that because of the biases, because of the politicization of everything, because you have people in all of these government areas who believe man is causing climate change, and they’re hell-bent on proving it, they’re hell-bent on demonstrating it, they’re hell-bent on persuading people of it. I can’t tell you the number of media people and elected officials all talking about this hurricane, Hurricane Irma, it’s no doubt due to climate change. And it never ends, it just never ends.In summation, the commentary has provided thoughts regarding: tap water, sourcing thereof, hurricane force at landfall, potential impact, flooding, expertise in such matters, and the two unfounded conspiracy theories presented above.
Said commentary exhibits a dearth of logic, while being wrought with fallacies of argument which attack a scientific theory backed by an ever mounting wall of evidence.
As that commentary earnestly dug deep, jumped in and buried itself alive, all without the turning of a spade from others, this author is tempted to reserve his commentary to the facts presented above.
Perhaps it is necessary to plumb the depths certain bombastic, demagogic commentators regularly bottom feed at, because that might just be part of the problem and point at hand? As Dr. Hannibal Lecter said to Agent Clarice Starling, but not today, more to come in Part 2.
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