I Walk The Line? Betting Against The Spread

Line Hopper - I have Pittsburg as an underdog and @ 5.5. Second, they are the favorite and the spread is only -4.5.

Master Line Po - PIT was available at -3.5, and they still managed not to cover.

Line Hopper - The lowest line I saw when I reviewed the spread before posting was -4.5. Wynn (IMHO the book that probably has the most action, but I don't know), ended at -4. Where did you find -3.5? Offshore? I haven't reviewed them for about two years.

We offer you now a little item called, I Walk The Line....

There are a multitude of reasons why I always shop the line to establish a range or "spread" on the game viz. how much and how little each team or prop can be had for and the key numbers involved. At the moment lets use NO +3 and ATL +1.5. 

Every half point in price is worth something, especially when crossing CRITICAL or KEY numbers, 3 being the biggest by far. Then 7, 10, 4, 6, 14, 1, 17, 2, and 13. In that ORDER of frequency or occurrence for the END result or margin of victory. 

How big is 3? = 15.5%; 7 = 8.7%; 10 = 6%.; 4 and 6 = 5.4%  and so on.  In other words, 15.5% of the time, an NFL game will end with a 3 point margin or spread in the final score.

Our example at hand,  the Saints went from +3 to -1.5 for a 4.5 trip on the spread.  In many cases, the book will not report or "hop" or "jump" the early line NO +3.  Perhaps it was a mistake or not favorable for business?  Yet there is it, go look... while you can.

Be aware that early line posting will disappear later in the week, never to be seen again.  No archival or historical reference on that data, unless one tracks it by screenshot or other sources, as I do.  

Further, the book manager Jeff Sherman at Westgate tweets that early line. There have been known to be differences between those tweets, the web site postings and "opening" lines at the books.

In this case, the books will claim as opposed to NO+3 that "line" started at NO -4 and is now -1.5, see here...

Between +3 and -4 is a seven point difference or a long trip.  Yet, if you drill down under line movements you will find NO +2.5 were props onshore and +2 offshore, coming down from the original early line at +3.  Isn't that special??

Further, in those two number "circuits" or trips, -4 to -1.5 and +3 to -1.5, the critical numbers crossed differ widely. Thus, the bets on both sides of those numbers, could be very dangerous for a book and profitable for a sharp bettor.

Example, NO +3.5,  sharps are heavy and the line moves to +2.5, where public action on ATL takes over -2.5. Game ends 20-17 ATL. 

All bets greater than +3 on NO are winners, viz +3.5, +4, etc.  At the same time all bets greater than -3 on ATL are winners, viz -2.5, -2 etc.  

By crossing the magic number 3, a book can get "middled",  "boxed" or "double ended" for a potential nightmare in which they could lose their shirt.

In general, for the reasons above, when the spread falls on a key number, the book will often shy away from further line movement.  In order to let dead dogs "lie" they adjust the vig or juice accordingly.  

Thus, one must watch the juice and money line movements closely and question the motive of the movement.  If NO is -2.5 perhaps the book is "begging me" by not going to -3?  Maybe, maybe not.  

If the book is at -3, then it costs me 25% to buy that favorite down to -2.5, while the same goes for buying a +2.5 dog up to +3.  

Bottom line, pun intended, making sure one is getting the best line and odds available is a key part of winning at sports betting.  When one is paying the vig, why would one pay any additional premium?

Sometimes books don't agree, and in any event they move the line, not to indicate which team is better, but to manage their risk. The line can be misleading and one must establish an accurate pricing structure on a proposition. 

Again, why would I want to pay extra for something that can be had for free by shopping it?  This is why I do so in reviewing Westgate early line, then Vegas and Online during the week.  Links to do all of this are at the bottom of my weekly ATS posts.

For further elucidation with alacrity, see Jimmy Boyd's detailed and MOST excellent guide on key numbers and totals.

As always Line Hopper - Your efforts are most welcome. You honor our numeric temple of the mind. I look forward to a season of truly epic proportions. We are unique, in that we condition ourselves to the point spread. Through long years of rigorous training, sacrifice, denial, pain, we forge our minds, in the fire of our will. Sworn to none, loyal to the number.  But tonight let us celebrate. You have our gratitude.

Master Line Po

Good luck and we leave you with this, apropos we think...