2017 NFL Week 14 Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
RESULTS Week 13 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted.
TNF
WAS +3 14 @ 38 DAL Spud Skins stick a fork in them, 4TO's, 4 sacks. Pokes 1 sack, 182yds rush, punt ret 4 TD. Jerry's Kids live, to die another day.
MNF
PIT -3.5 23 @ 20 CIN Even game. 7W Riveters 9-1 92 rush, early Ben pick gives FG. Gals 130 rush, 1 punt to lead 17-3 at half, after 4 punts. 38 + 30yd pass interfere setup 2 FG's, holding kills 61yd TD, roughing sets up PIT tying TD. Undisciplined Clueless Lewis Gals set franchise record 173 yds = 20pt diff in getting flagged down at the gun by a FG.
Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
YTD: 112-80 = 58% - Lox 40-24 = 63%
Hangin by a thread... 1 ahead of #2 @ 107 Mantzouranis Sports Illustrated's MMQB, 3 up on #3 @ 105 Breer MMQB, and 4 up on #4 @ 104 Yahoo's Frank Schwab.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West...
Week 14 Picks - Our pick is highlighted. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
This weeks lesson: 5 dog flops, sometimes one should trust their initial rather than animal instinct. Speaking of which, last week we predicted the Bolts win out and win the AFC West. Much like our floppy picks this week, the once 5-0 Chefs, since 1-6, should finish 8-8 and outside. If you think that you can fool me, I've seen that movie too, for a classical reference see the 1976 9ers.
YTD 4 pushes, 2 involving locks.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
RESULTS Week 13 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted.
TNF
WAS +3 14 @ 38 DAL Spud Skins stick a fork in them, 4TO's, 4 sacks. Pokes 1 sack, 182yds rush, punt ret 4 TD. Jerry's Kids live, to die another day.
Early
DET +3 20 @ 44 BAL TripW Poes beat +.500 team. Motor City Kitties 3 sacks, TO's, pick six
SF 15 @ 14 CHI -2.5 5L Chairs punt ret TD, RZ D 5-5. Garoppolo 9ers: 38mins; 1stD 23-8; 73-36 plays; net 388-147yds
MIN +3.5 14 @ 9 ATL LOCK 8W Vikes TOP 35min Birds 1-10 3rdDC, missed FG costs
NE 23 @ 3 BUF +10.5 LOCK Pats dominate on both sides. Bison RZ, goal line failure
DEN +1 9 @ 35 MIA Cutler Fins, RB Drake 120yds. 8L Simian Buncos D outscores O on pick 6, 1-13 3rdD, 2 safeties, 3 int's, 1 pick 6
HOU 13 @ 24 TEN -6 1-5 Texans D allows 331 pass yds. 6-1 Tuxes cover on 75yd TD run with 55sec left
IND +10.5 10 @ 30 JAX D-less Dolts allow 330 pass, 426 net yds. Shags D 2 picks, 4 sacks
TB 20 @ 26 GB +2.5 2-7 Bucs hold Hundley 77yds pass. 2-5 Pack D 7 sacks, fumble ret TD 4 win
KC 31 @ 38 NYJ +6 2-5 Yets 488yds, TOP 42-17min, 1stD 30-17 cooks 4L 1-6 Chefs
Late
CAR +5.5 21 @ 31 Halos D holds up Pants, Cam 51 of 112yds rush. Falling Pants D: lst3 avg 353yds? Saints 400 w/148 rush
CLE 10 @ 19 LAC -10.5 LOCK 6-2 Bolts 335 net pass, miss FG. Stains 2TO's cost
LAR -5.5 32 @ 16 ARZ Zona pick 6, missed PAT+FG cost. 6-1 Rams D 6 sacks, 2 picks
NYG 17 @ 24 OAK -6.5 4-2 Traitors 401-265 yds. 2-5 Geno-Men 65yds net rush, back to Eli?
SNF
PHI 10 @ 24 SEA +7 LOCK Philly low D road diet lst 4 SF, DEN, DAL, CHI causes 310 yds of indigestion. Most since Wk7. Squawks needed it and lowered D boom, RZ D 0-2 and O 3-3, 2 TO's, 98 yds rush.
PHI 10 @ 24 SEA +7 LOCK Philly low D road diet lst 4 SF, DEN, DAL, CHI causes 310 yds of indigestion. Most since Wk7. Squawks needed it and lowered D boom, RZ D 0-2 and O 3-3, 2 TO's, 98 yds rush.
MNF
PIT -3.5 23 @ 20 CIN Even game. 7W Riveters 9-1 92 rush, early Ben pick gives FG. Gals 130 rush, 1 punt to lead 17-3 at half, after 4 punts. 38 + 30yd pass interfere setup 2 FG's, holding kills 61yd TD, roughing sets up PIT tying TD. Undisciplined Clueless Lewis Gals set franchise record 173 yds = 20pt diff in getting flagged down at the gun by a FG.
How did we do? Like a double guessing coin head. After going 12-4 last week, and thinking we know anything, we committed five flops, DAL, BAL, SF, MIA, JAX in which we had the winner picked. A sexy spread baited us, alas 12-4 NO!!, floppy pick finish outside at 7-9.
Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 01: 13-2 = 87% - Lox 4-0 = 100%
Week 02: 10-6 = 63% - Lox 5-1 = 83%
Week 03: 9-7 = 56% - Lox 3-3 = 50%
Week 02: 10-6 = 63% - Lox 5-1 = 83%
Week 03: 9-7 = 56% - Lox 3-3 = 50%
Week 04: 8-8 = 50% - Lox 5-0 = 100%
Week 05: 6-8 = 43% - Lox 2-3 = 40%
Week 06: 7-7 = 50% - Lox 1-3 = 25%
Week 07: 6-9 = 40% - Lox 2-3 = 40%
Week 08: 10-3 = 77% - Lox 3-1 = 75%
Week 09: 9-4 = 69% - Lox 4-1 = 80%
Week 10: 9-5 = 64% - Lox 5-1 = 83%
Week 11: 6-8 = 43% - Lox 3-6 = 33%
YTD: 112-80 = 58% - Lox 40-24 = 63%
Adjusting for pushes (see YTD below), subtract our 4 pushes (2 on lox) from 112, with a record of 108-80-4; lox at 38-24, and 4 weeks or 64 games to go...
we are still the #1 % winner on the web (cherry picking games ATS - Lox and Bagels), and #1 on the web picking all NFL games ATS.
Hangin by a thread... 1 ahead of #2 @ 107 Mantzouranis Sports Illustrated's MMQB, 3 up on #3 @ 105 Breer MMQB, and 4 up on #4 @ 104 Yahoo's Frank Schwab.
Shaking our head in utter disbelief while Moving West...
Week 14 Picks - Our pick is highlighted. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
This weeks lesson: 5 dog flops, sometimes one should trust their initial rather than animal instinct. Speaking of which, last week we predicted the Bolts win out and win the AFC West. Much like our floppy picks this week, the once 5-0 Chefs, since 1-6, should finish 8-8 and outside. If you think that you can fool me, I've seen that movie too, for a classical reference see the 1976 9ers.
Still striving for perfection, Brown Floaters Mistake On The Lake. Stains coach Hue Jackson is only surpassed in futility by John McKay's 0-26. However, that abysmal streak was during the inaugural two seasons for the expansion Bucs. In their 18th and 19th campaigns, the new age Stains are 1-27. Can I apply for the job? Can't do any worse. Moving West...
TNF
TNF
NO 17 @ 20 ATL +4 Line went wild from NO-4 to ATL-3, closed -2.5 late sharps all over ATL. They needed it really bad, we took the early line. Birds control rock 37min, 132rush, 3 ints, 1 end zone. Halos, 1st drive Kamara out, 50rush, 3/10 3rdDC. Worse, Lattimore's int ret to ATL 29 with 0:04 in half, illegal formation nullifies 46 yd FG. Bree's end zone int at 1:25 never happens as Halo's kick 28 yd FG to win. Se la vie.
Early
DET @ TB +3 B2B L teams. Banged up O-line Kats lst 2 5TO's, Pass: 6O 27D. Bucs 5PassO, 31D lst 3 413yds avg, depleted secondary.
CHI +7 @ CIN 5L Chairs 32O 32Pass, lst 2 under 150yds, LB McPhee out. MNF Collapsing Gals 31O Run 32O 28D Burfict + several D starters out. Post PIT 7pts chalk?
IND @ BUF PK 3L 1-6 Dolts O27 D29, on road 1-6 avg 33pts. Pat whipped 1-4 Bison O26 D27, Peterman? Lst 2 home scored NE 3, NO 10, 20+ in 4W's
OAK +6 @ KC 4L 1-6 Chefs recall Wk7 31-30 L? CB Peters out. 30D div rival grudge match 6pts chalk? 4-2 Carr Bomb Traitors score 20+ = 6W's, under = 6L's, both need it
MIN @ CAR +3 Lst 3 Pants D 368yds avg. LB Shaq out, they need it. Vikes D 272yds avg. T Remmers, C Elfein out, 3rd road gm, early dog +2.5 now -3
GB @ CLE +6 2-2 Stains 10D dried hard at Bolts, overdue? Pack D TOP 31, Plays 30, Yds 28, 6pts road chalk? Now -2.5, look past to Rodgers and Pants?
SF +5.5 @ HOU LOCK 2-1 SU, prior 2-23! 1-0 Garoppolo 9ers can hold the rock. B2B L 1-5 Savage Texans RB Blue WR Miller out, look past to Shags?
DAL -3.5 @ NYG LOCK McAdoo out, Eli in, Gmen 32D, recall Wk1 19-3 L to div rival? TNF Pokes need it to keep far flung playoff hopes alive
Late
WAS @ LAC -5.5 2-5 TNF DC Road D: 25Pass 30Run. Bolts could easily be 9-3, they need it. Look past poked Skins to Chefs?
NYJ +3 @ DEN 8L Trip H L Bungling Buncos early chalk? 1-4 road Yets stepping up vs tougher teams of late 2-2, send Mr. Ed to glue factory?
TEN @ ARZ +3.5 B2B W Tuxes need it. Last 6W's -.500 teams, 25PassD. Despite sched. 5-7, 1-2 Gabbert Cards +6TOM hang tough
SEA +3.5 @ JAX LOCK 5-1 Shags O-line issues, lst 6 vs -.500 teams. 4-2 SNF Squawks 4-0 away, look past to Rams? They need it.
PHI @ LAR +3 SNF Philly post Squawk fav 16-34 ATS, 2nd wk as West coast road chalk. Lst 2 5TO's = prior 7gms. D vs Qb 84+? Wk2 on 365yd avg. Can Rams 27RunD hold 2RunO?
SNF
BAL +7.5 @ PIT LOCK MNF 7W 9-1 Riveters should have lost 24-10 last week, Shazier Shuster out, look past Poes to Pats? Last 3: Poes D +11TO's, PIT O -4TO's, TOM +14 vs -1. Recall Wk4 26-9 home L? CB Smith out. Big chalk for primetime div rival grudge match
MNF
NE -10 @ MIA Cutler Fins, Drake RB, recall Wk12 35-17 L? 8W Gronkless Minutemen take partial bye week with 1-5 Fins to rest 4 Riveters? Double digit road chalk on div rival in primetime? Pats make Minutemaid chum.
Update 12/11/17 Noon EST - we have flopped off of dog MIA onto fav NE.
Comes To Shove
Early
DET @ TB +3 B2B L teams. Banged up O-line Kats lst 2 5TO's, Pass: 6O 27D. Bucs 5PassO, 31D lst 3 413yds avg, depleted secondary.
CHI +7 @ CIN 5L Chairs 32O 32Pass, lst 2 under 150yds, LB McPhee out. MNF Collapsing Gals 31O Run 32O 28D Burfict + several D starters out. Post PIT 7pts chalk?
IND @ BUF PK 3L 1-6 Dolts O27 D29, on road 1-6 avg 33pts. Pat whipped 1-4 Bison O26 D27, Peterman? Lst 2 home scored NE 3, NO 10, 20+ in 4W's
OAK +6 @ KC 4L 1-6 Chefs recall Wk7 31-30 L? CB Peters out. 30D div rival grudge match 6pts chalk? 4-2 Carr Bomb Traitors score 20+ = 6W's, under = 6L's, both need it
MIN @ CAR +3 Lst 3 Pants D 368yds avg. LB Shaq out, they need it. Vikes D 272yds avg. T Remmers, C Elfein out, 3rd road gm, early dog +2.5 now -3
GB @ CLE +6 2-2 Stains 10D dried hard at Bolts, overdue? Pack D TOP 31, Plays 30, Yds 28, 6pts road chalk? Now -2.5, look past to Rodgers and Pants?
SF +5.5 @ HOU LOCK 2-1 SU, prior 2-23! 1-0 Garoppolo 9ers can hold the rock. B2B L 1-5 Savage Texans RB Blue WR Miller out, look past to Shags?
DAL -3.5 @ NYG LOCK McAdoo out, Eli in, Gmen 32D, recall Wk1 19-3 L to div rival? TNF Pokes need it to keep far flung playoff hopes alive
Late
WAS @ LAC -5.5 2-5 TNF DC Road D: 25Pass 30Run. Bolts could easily be 9-3, they need it. Look past poked Skins to Chefs?
NYJ +3 @ DEN 8L Trip H L Bungling Buncos early chalk? 1-4 road Yets stepping up vs tougher teams of late 2-2, send Mr. Ed to glue factory?
TEN @ ARZ +3.5 B2B W Tuxes need it. Last 6W's -.500 teams, 25PassD. Despite sched. 5-7, 1-2 Gabbert Cards +6TOM hang tough
SEA +3.5 @ JAX LOCK 5-1 Shags O-line issues, lst 6 vs -.500 teams. 4-2 SNF Squawks 4-0 away, look past to Rams? They need it.
PHI @ LAR +3 SNF Philly post Squawk fav 16-34 ATS, 2nd wk as West coast road chalk. Lst 2 5TO's = prior 7gms. D vs Qb 84+? Wk2 on 365yd avg. Can Rams 27RunD hold 2RunO?
SNF
BAL +7.5 @ PIT LOCK MNF 7W 9-1 Riveters should have lost 24-10 last week, Shazier Shuster out, look past Poes to Pats? Last 3: Poes D +11TO's, PIT O -4TO's, TOM +14 vs -1. Recall Wk4 26-9 home L? CB Smith out. Big chalk for primetime div rival grudge match
MNF
NE -10 @ MIA Cutler Fins, Drake RB, recall Wk12 35-17 L? 8W Gronkless Minutemen take partial bye week with 1-5 Fins to rest 4 Riveters? Double digit road chalk on div rival in primetime? Pats make Minutemaid chum.
Update 12/11/17 Noon EST - we have flopped off of dog MIA onto fav NE.
Comes To Shove
On a push you get your money back. Depending on the book, a push can either completely kill or reduce the payout on parlays and teasers. Hence, we count not losing as a win, however books and NFLPickWatch do not.
YTD 4 pushes, 2 involving locks.
Wk3 NY 24 @ 27 PHI -3 LOCK
Wk4 WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC LOCK
Wk7 NYJ 28 @ 31 MIA -3
Wk9 BAL 20 @ 23 TEN -3
Resources
Wk4 WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC LOCK
Wk7 NYJ 28 @ 31 MIA -3
Wk9 BAL 20 @ 23 TEN -3
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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