2017 NFL Week 13 Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that content down loading time to good use?
RESULTS Week 12 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted.
Day of The Gobbler
Revenge of The Gobbler
LAC +4.5 28 @ 6 DAL Kicker injury and inability to close, make score seem closer than game was. Trip L 3-5 SU Pokes got ass whipped and put away wet by 515yd Rivers Bolts. Prediction: they run the table and win the division, not the Pokes, the Bolts.
Late Leftovers
NYG +9 10 @ WAS 20 WeakSkins allow pick 6, can't rack up pts vs Gmen #28RoadD? Gmen pass on 4th and 3 inside OWN 20 with over 2mins and 3 time outs left WTF? Allows cheap DC FG 2 cover. Critical fail or D stop has been deleted from the NFL highlight reel? Hmm.
Early
CLE 16 @ 30 CIN -7.5 5-2 SU Gals cover on RZ conversions vs 2-10 ATS as 7pt+ dog Stains
CHI 3 @ 31 PHI -11 9W Birds club 4L Chairs. 3 fumbles? net 420-140, rushing 176-SIX
MIA 17 @ 35 NE -14.5 7W Pats dominate net rush 196-67, 7 Moore sacks force 3TO's
BUF +11.5 16 @ 10 KC Tyrod Bills hold 1-5 SU Chefs 2/13 3rdD, 55 net rush, Smith int ends game
TB +11.5 20 @ 34 ATL racks up 516yds vs #30RoadD. Bucs 4th-1 PASS attempt inside ATL 20 fails with over 7mins left WTF? Allows Dirty Birds 2 cover
CAR -4 35 @ 27 NYJ Fumble and Punt TD returns win as 4W Pants #2RoadD yields 1-5 SU Yets 391net.
TEN 20 @ 16 IND +6.5 Mariota's 2 ints net Dolts 10pts, gracious host returns favors with 4yd line fumble giving Tuxes game winning TD
Late
SEA 24 @ 13 SF +8.5 Even game, freak "wrestle" int at 9er 15 gets easy TD 4 Gulls 2 cover
NO 20 @ 26 LAR PK Gurley Rams vertical attack 415yds dominates and snaps 8W Halo D
JAX 24 @ 27 ARZ +6 Gabbert Cards D holds run happy Shags 91 net, 1/12 3rdD, forces 3TO's
DEN 14 @ 21 OAK -4 Traitors dominate and Lynch rival 7L 2TO QB-less Buncos. Mr. Ed needs Kaepernick
SNF
GB 28 @ 31 PIT -12.5 Riveters dominate 462-307net, 3 drive killing TO's foil big chalk
MNF
HOU +8 16 @ BAL 23 Edgar Allan's Poe's fake punt, RZ D 1-4, 2 picks, sack fumble get win.
Chalk greater than or = -7pts went 6-3, heavy double digit chalk 3-2. How did we do?
After sucking hard on last weeks everlasting Wonka Gobstopper, we chewed it up for redemption at 12-4. Our only lament, 15-1 was dancin like a sugar plum, noting the VERY peculiar circumstances under which NYG, TB and SF managed to fail beating the number.
Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 01: 13-2 = 87% - Lox 4-0 = 100%
YTD: 105-71 = 60% - Lox 38-22 = 63%
3 ahead of #2 Mantzouranis Sports Illustrated's MMQB, and 5 ahead of Gramling, Breer MMQB and Yahoo's Frank Schwab who are all tied at #3.
Shaking our head in absolute disbelief while Moving West...
Week 12 Picks - Our pick is highlighted. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
Update Sun 12/3 10:30AM EST. And then there was one, Brown Floaters Mistake On The Lake.
YTD 4 pushes, 2 involving locks.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
RESULTS Week 12 Picks - Our pick is the team with the number, winners highlighted.
Day of The Gobbler
Early Bird Special
MIN +1.5 30 @ DET 23 LOCK Motor City Kitties home #31PassD and #30runO don't get bailed out by 7W #5D Norsemen who avenge Wk4 14-7 home loss. Dominating statement win for division and homefield with tiebreaker wins over Saints and Rams. Falcons next.Revenge of The Gobbler
LAC +4.5 28 @ 6 DAL Kicker injury and inability to close, make score seem closer than game was. Trip L 3-5 SU Pokes got ass whipped and put away wet by 515yd Rivers Bolts. Prediction: they run the table and win the division, not the Pokes, the Bolts.
Late Leftovers
NYG +9 10 @ WAS 20 WeakSkins allow pick 6, can't rack up pts vs Gmen #28RoadD? Gmen pass on 4th and 3 inside OWN 20 with over 2mins and 3 time outs left WTF? Allows cheap DC FG 2 cover. Critical fail or D stop has been deleted from the NFL highlight reel? Hmm.
Early
CLE 16 @ 30 CIN -7.5 5-2 SU Gals cover on RZ conversions vs 2-10 ATS as 7pt+ dog Stains
CHI 3 @ 31 PHI -11 9W Birds club 4L Chairs. 3 fumbles? net 420-140, rushing 176-SIX
MIA 17 @ 35 NE -14.5 7W Pats dominate net rush 196-67, 7 Moore sacks force 3TO's
BUF +11.5 16 @ 10 KC Tyrod Bills hold 1-5 SU Chefs 2/13 3rdD, 55 net rush, Smith int ends game
TB +11.5 20 @ 34 ATL racks up 516yds vs #30RoadD. Bucs 4th-1 PASS attempt inside ATL 20 fails with over 7mins left WTF? Allows Dirty Birds 2 cover
CAR -4 35 @ 27 NYJ Fumble and Punt TD returns win as 4W Pants #2RoadD yields 1-5 SU Yets 391net.
TEN 20 @ 16 IND +6.5 Mariota's 2 ints net Dolts 10pts, gracious host returns favors with 4yd line fumble giving Tuxes game winning TD
Late
SEA 24 @ 13 SF +8.5 Even game, freak "wrestle" int at 9er 15 gets easy TD 4 Gulls 2 cover
NO 20 @ 26 LAR PK Gurley Rams vertical attack 415yds dominates and snaps 8W Halo D
JAX 24 @ 27 ARZ +6 Gabbert Cards D holds run happy Shags 91 net, 1/12 3rdD, forces 3TO's
DEN 14 @ 21 OAK -4 Traitors dominate and Lynch rival 7L 2TO QB-less Buncos. Mr. Ed needs Kaepernick
SNF
GB 28 @ 31 PIT -12.5 Riveters dominate 462-307net, 3 drive killing TO's foil big chalk
MNF
HOU +8 16 @ BAL 23 Edgar Allan's Poe's fake punt, RZ D 1-4, 2 picks, sack fumble get win.
Chalk greater than or = -7pts went 6-3, heavy double digit chalk 3-2. How did we do?
After sucking hard on last weeks everlasting Wonka Gobstopper, we chewed it up for redemption at 12-4. Our only lament, 15-1 was dancin like a sugar plum, noting the VERY peculiar circumstances under which NYG, TB and SF managed to fail beating the number.
Shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps... That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday....
Week 01: 13-2 = 87% - Lox 4-0 = 100%
Week 02: 10-6 = 63% - Lox 5-1 = 83%
Week 03: 9-7 = 56% - Lox 3-3 = 50%
Week 04: 8-8 = 50% - Lox 5-0 = 100%
Week 05: 6-8 = 43% - Lox 2-3 = 40%
Week 06: 7-7 = 50% - Lox 1-3 = 25%
Week 07: 6-9 = 40% - Lox 2-3 = 40%
Week 08: 10-3 = 77% - Lox 3-1 = 75%
Week 09: 9-4 = 69% - Lox 4-1 = 80%
Week 10: 9-5 = 64% - Lox 5-1 = 83%
Week 11: 6-8 = 43% - Lox 3-6 = 33%
Week 12: 12-4 = 75% - Lox 1-0 = 100%
YTD: 105-71 = 60% - Lox 38-22 = 63%
Adjusting for pushes (see YTD below), subtract our 4 pushes (2 on lox) from 105, with a record of 101-71-4; and lox 36-22, at the moment...
we are the #1 % winner on the web (cherry picking games ATS - Lox and Bagels), and #1 on the web picking all NFL games ATS.
3 ahead of #2 Mantzouranis Sports Illustrated's MMQB, and 5 ahead of Gramling, Breer MMQB and Yahoo's Frank Schwab who are all tied at #3.
Shaking our head in absolute disbelief while Moving West...
Week 12 Picks - Our pick is highlighted. As always, I reserve the right to take the advance or opening line, shop the line, and make changes, all well in advance of kickoff.
Update Sun 12/3 10:30AM EST. And then there was one, Brown Floaters Mistake On The Lake.
TNF
WAS +3 14 @ 38 DAL Skins 4TO's, 4 sacks, stick a fork in them. Pokes 1 sack,182yds rush, Punt Ret 4 TD, Jerry's Kids live, to die another day.
SNF
PHI @ SEA +7 LOCK Birds of Prey low D road diet, feast on lst 4 SF, DEN, DAL, CHI = +10TO's look past Gulls to Rams? B2B Home L low boom Squawks need it
MNF
PIT -4.5 @ CIN Last 2W DEN, CLE Home #29RunD, #27RunO recall Wk7 29-14 loss to div rival? 6W Riveters 8-1 SU vs Gals, look past to Ravens?
Early
DET +3 @ BAL MNF B2B W Poes 0-4 vs +.500, look past to PIT? TNF Lions Stafford ankle?
SF @ CHI -2.5 4L 31-3 Chairs, 9ers post Squawk bang up #28roadD, Garoppolo starts
MIN +3.5 @ ATL LOCK 3W Birds CB's Trufant, Poole? Look past to TNF Halos? TNF 7W Vikes pick on #20PassD?
NE @ BUF +10.5 LOCK Pats Flowers? big road chalk vs div rival in playoff hunt?
DEN +1 @ MIA 5L Cutler Fins, Drake RB? 7L Siemian Buncos, Talib out, better D?
HOU @ TEN -6 MNF 1-4 Savage Texans -9TOM, #31RPassD. 5-1 SU Tuxes #30HPassD recall Wk4 5TO 57-14 L to div rival?
IND +10.5 @ JAX Shags O-line? look past to SEA? Dolts Recall Wk7 27-0 home L to div rival?
TB @ GB +2.5 B2B L 1-5 SU Hundley Pack Montgomery Out, Matthews? 2-6 SU Banged up Bucs Road O:#31run; D:#30run #31pass as road chalk?
KC @ NYJ +6 Trip L 1-5 SU Chefs #27D look past to Traitors? B2B L 1-5 SU Yets O 391yds on Pants D
Late
CAR +5.5 @ NO Lamb-basted Halos D Lst2 avg 425yds? 2CB's+LT Armstead? Look past to TNF Birds? 4W Pants D: lst3 avg 353yds? Recall Wk3 34-13 -3TOM home L to div rival? Look past to Norsemen?
CLE @ LAC -10.5 LOCK TNF 5-2 SU Bolts get Stains who stay perfect. Bolts win out and AFC West.
LAR -5.5 @ ARZ 5-1 SU Rams look past to PHI? Lst wk Gabbert Cards got 3TO's recall Wk7 33-0 L to div rival?
NYG @ OAK -6.5 3-2 SU Coop+Crab less Traitors look past no Eli to Chefs? TNF 2-4 SU Geno-Men 170yds net vs D-less Skins, #28RoadD.
PHI @ SEA +7 LOCK Birds of Prey low D road diet, feast on lst 4 SF, DEN, DAL, CHI = +10TO's look past Gulls to Rams? B2B Home L low boom Squawks need it
MNF
PIT -4.5 @ CIN Last 2W DEN, CLE Home #29RunD, #27RunO recall Wk7 29-14 loss to div rival? 6W Riveters 8-1 SU vs Gals, look past to Ravens?
Comes To Shove
On a push you get your money back. Depending on the book, a push can either completely kill or reduce the payout on parlays and teasers. Hence, we count not losing as a win, however books and NFLPickWatch do not.
YTD 4 pushes, 2 involving locks.
Wk3 NY 24 @ 27 PHI -3 LOCK
Wk4 WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC LOCK
Wk7 NYJ 28 @ 31 MIA -3
Wk8 BAL 20 @ 23 TEN -3
Resources
Wk4 WAS +9 20 @ 29 KC LOCK
Wk7 NYJ 28 @ 31 MIA -3
Wk8 BAL 20 @ 23 TEN -3
Resources
Spread courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and the Westgate Advance Line here and here.
One can find the advance line for week 2- 8 of the season, courtesy of John Morgan at PatsFan.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, he is the manager of the Westgate Super Book.
As we enjoy his commentary, humor and interesting observations, Walter Cherepinsky at NESN has weekly in depth analysis of each game.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
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