Excuses of Economy?
Following up on Libor Squeeze?, Libor and Reserves?, Reserves, RRP and The Libor Squeeze?, A SOFR Squeeze?, What The Ruck? (Liquidity) and Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End)...
Witnessed at quarter end March and June, something to look forward to? Just wait till the end of September when turn premium kicks in and monetary flows are cyclically tanking.
Required reading:
Libor Squeeze?
Libor and Reserves?
Reserves, RRP and The Libor Squeeze?
A SOFR Squeeze?
What The Ruck? (Liquidity)
Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End)
"The global economy, contrary to their assessments, is not picking up, rather there are growing signs that after substantially underperforming last year it may already be rolling over this year and doing so from a relatively lower ceiling (compared to 2014, 2012, and 2007)." It's A Dollar Double Whammy, Just Not Theirs - Jeffrey SniderIndeed unlike the Fed taper, the global and US economy is rolling over like the dead dog it is, contrary to the happy daze narrative.
"[global banks] refusing to take advantage of what may seem like tremendous profit opportunities that in a more realistic light appear to be only massive risks."As opposed to the happy daze narrative, perhaps the real state of the global economy, or truth, has somebody worried? Actions speak louder than words.
"Because they refuse to consider any other alternative, there is always a bill problem or money market reform or the economy is going to be so good it's bad. Maybe it's none of those things."Many factors including those listed, have driven a shift in market making, which is at the bottom of the tea leaves viz. root cause. The rest of the usual suspects are acting like victims of circumstance?
"the Fed's withdrawal of its balance sheet (lower bank reserves) coming at a time when the US government's deficit requires more financing capacity. Even when they get it, they don't get it. "Yes, even when they get it, they don't. Balance sheet capacity, FOMC balance sheet runoff, treasury balances, changes in market making, liquidity preferences and changing risk tolerance all factor into the liquidity squeeze.
Witnessed at quarter end March and June, something to look forward to? Just wait till the end of September when turn premium kicks in and monetary flows are cyclically tanking.
Required reading:
Libor Squeeze?
Libor and Reserves?
Reserves, RRP and The Libor Squeeze?
A SOFR Squeeze?
What The Ruck? (Liquidity)
Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End)
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