Beware The Ides of Winter Early?

Timely year end musings regarding the above captioned...

The Nattering Naybob - December 28, 2018 5:54am

Pay close attention to the NQ current contract since Oct 1st. Count the peak and trough days, and note the larger NINE day downstrokes.  Don't scalp, just ride the extended declines 

IMHO, we EITHER just played out a THREE down over SEVENTEEN days 12/03-12/25 days, heading into a small 4 up (Santa rally). 
OR 
The ONE down 10/01 - 11/20 was not a corrective ABC, but a larger 1-5, followed by 11/20 - 12/03 a small ABC TWO up.  

And we have just completed the 1st leg down 12/03 - 12/25 in what is a massive THREE down????  

I am with Salmo, all the other indicators are pointing DOWN, along with the seasonal bottom in flows, 1st inflection of the year Jan 7th? - 14th. 

"B"isForBob - December 28, 2018 1:40pm

I'm watching 2511 closely. Do not want that to break if more downside in immediate future. Next level to watch is 2524. If that goes then I expect 2566 at a minimum in the cards. None of the micro counts have held much water lately though. Chop chop chop 

The Nattering Naybob - December 28, 2018 3:51pm

Good observations and charts. Note the pattern since 10/01 and PRIOR. Bearing in mind the roughly 5 week pattern. Think in terms of the recent 500 pt downdraft (12/03 - 12/25).  

Today's 2517 ES would be in the zone of a .382 retrace or reciprocal of .618. Meaning this bounce has ran its course after 4 days? And we should see a continuation of the downtrend? Possible.  

2560 retrace would be .382 of the TOTAL 630 pt drop since 10/3 . So that is a value of interest. Being only 40 pts above today's 2520, this bounce could turn down in 6 days?  

IMHO to get the appropriate recoil from the recent 500 pt downdraft (12/03 - 12/25), if this bounce has "legs" it might run 7 - 9 trading days.  

The latter being next Friday the 4th, and bouncing up .618 or to 2630. This sets up Monday 7th for ???  

Better yet, try .618 of the total 630, for 2710. Of all these possibilities, I would watch 2630 to 2650 with great interest. Resistance at the low and close on 12/12, the last UP day prior to current dip. 

Then, just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even get past the sand. Just sayin. Cheers

The Nattering One muses... excerpt from above...

"Today's (12/28) 2517 ES would be in the zone of a .382 retrace or reciprocal of .618. Meaning this bounce has ran its course after 4 days (12/25 - 12/28)? And we should see a continuation of the downtrend? Possible.  

2560 retrace would be .382 of the TOTAL 630 pt drop since 10/3 . So that is a value of interest. Being only 40 pts above today's 2520 (12/28), this bounce could turn down in 6 days (12/25 - 01/01)?" 

As speculated above, a 6 trading day duration for the bounce or 12/25 - 01/01 and being in the vicinity of 2520 - 2560.

ES hit 2523 prior to the weekend, and the aforementioned setup might be here sooner than we think.

If the expected 01/14 inflection to the downside has been moved up to 01/07 as previously speculated on 12/12 in Beware The Ides of Winter?... 

Because 12/07 was pulled forward to 12/03.... Is it possible that 01/07 might also get shifted forward by four trading days to 01/02? 

Moving West 01/02 overnight...  DXY, JPY up, USD/JPY -0.75% for carry. Bonds getting the bid (yields down -1%), Asia -2%, Europe -2%, Oil -1%....

ES -1.5%, NQ -2.17% means 01/02 US open looking like a major candle to the downside, which precipitates another 5 to 9 trading day decline? Just sayin, all TBD and this...